The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current market price is estimated to be of about Tk11.9tn in the 2013-14 fiscal.
The figure would be 14% higher than Tk10.4tn of the outgoing fiscal year, according to estimates the finance division was making only three weeks ahead of placing the national budget for the next fiscal year on June 6. The real GDP growth target is set at 7.2% for the fiscal.
Finance officials, however, indicated that the figures might be revised at the eleventh hours considering the possible adverse impact of the ongoing political unrest and apparel industry setback on the economy.
The rising trend of inflation would aggravate further in the year of general election, affecting the economic growth, said one of them.
Finance Minister AMA Muhith at a recent pre-budget meeting expressed concern over the political violence that has been hurting the economy badly for the last 40-45 days.
He said the situation has prompted the government to revise down the GDP growth target for the outgoing fiscal year below 7% from the actual projection of 7.2%. “It’s a very difficult time. Business has almost come to a halt,” he uttered.
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Research Director Dr Zaid Bakht said the nominal GDP estimate does not completely explain the future growth scenario but rising inflation would have negative impact on the GDP.
He said the estimates of inflation and nominal GDP for the next fiscal year are not realistic and rational.
Bangladesh Exporter Association (BEA) President Abdus Salam Murshedy told the Dhaka Tribune that the Savar building collapse has created an image crisis in the global market, which would pull down the unit price of exportable items.
The exports as well as the economic growth would be affected by the Savar building collapse, he added.
Murshedy said that the growth will be stable if we pay heed to the buyers’ demands like ensuring labour safety and building code.