The Zero-Zero project team presented the four “road” scenarios to senior government planners in a meeting at the Planning Commission in Dhaka in September. There was a lively discussion where participants were invited to imagine themselves in the year 2041 and answering a question from their children: “Mummy/Daddy, what did you do back in 2018 that made the country like it is today, what decisions did you make then?”
The planners felt that many of the characteristics of the Middle Road had already been achieved, and the country was, in some important ways, progressing on the Green Road. The promise of “Digital Bangladesh” is already happening and technology will improve further. Women in the country feel more secure and feminization of agriculture is happening – with pros and cons. However, as characterized in the Middle Road, the power sector is expanding to provide the country with sufficient electricity, but is not doing this in a low carbon manner. Other speakers pinpointed that moving to zero emissions, from energy and agriculture, is an enormous challenge and very expensive; the country needs adequate technology and international financing to achieve this.
Worries were expressed about the emphasis on digital technology in the Divided Road. Could hackers access national security systems? Participants were also worried about an emphasis in this scenario about intensive agriculture; food may be unhygienic or contaminated by synthetic chemicals.
The Rocky Road scenario excited considerable discussion. It was felt that it was still possible for the country to go down this path if politicians lost sight of the Sustainable Development Goals, climate change accelerated, disasters increased, there was poor governance, wrong decisions were taken, and economic problems mounted. For example, remittances from Bangladeshis working abroad was slashed, while the national unemployment rate increased and there were fewer jobs for young people. They also worried if no initiatives were taken for family planning, if drug addiction spreads. But generally, they felt that with foreknowledge and understanding of the possible consequences, the country can avoid or overcome such problems and move towards the Green Road.
Dr Saleemul Huq of ICCCAD pointed out how scenarios can help planners think about the whole picture -- holistically and not in isolation, and so understanding how solutions in one sector can be a problem in another. Md Syeedul Haque, chief, programming division, Planning Commission, had earlier emphasised the need for good policies for the country to succeed in achieving the goals it had set for itself, and he concluded by saying he had been very impressed with the approach taken in the meeting and it would help build the capacity of policy-makers. The Planning Commission and ICCCAD have signed a Memorandum of Understanding together to share learning on climate change and development issues.
John Magrath is a writer who has worked for Oxfam GB for over 30 years in a variety of role.
