The daily ups and downs of the relationship between North Korea and the United States are bewildering.
These range from threats of war, to personal insults between national leaders, to sweet words and hopes for peace on the Korean peninsula.
Each major actor has an objective: President Trump sees these events as an opportunity to become a great hero of peace; Kim Jung-un also hopes to be a great hero in bringing peace to Korea, shoring up his country’s ailing economy, and surviving.
President Moon of South Korea wants to be the man to unite the two Koreas and bring this long, bitter conflict to a close. The world cheers on the chance of peace.
All of these leaders are hoping for an outcome that will bring great credit to their personal reputations. Remarkably, none has a true strategic objective.
Success in the quest for a peace treaty and removal of nuclear weapons would generate fame and probably Nobel peace prizes. But the pursuit of fame may lead to surprising results.
Strategic objectives of the three nations
For South Korea, the major strategic objective is to maintain a close defense and economic relationship with the US. South Korea is vulnerable to threat or even military actions if the US is not standing by their side.
For the US, the long relationship with South Korea is sealed with blood. The alliance provides the legal and moral basis for America’s Asian presence and secures vital bases and a defense partnership to maintain US dominance in northeast Asia over the Chinese challenger.
North Korea is an unstable country. The economy is weak, the people are poor, malnourished, their human rights abused. The contrast with South Korea could not be greater.
The repression is sufficient to maintain control of the society by the tyrannical communist regime. The ruling communist regime has no interest in giving up power. They seem to have reached the conclusion that they are prepared to reduce their nuclear weapons establishment for international recognition, for economic support from improved economic relationship with South Korea and the US.
The North Korean regime is obviously uncertain about the future relationship with the US, but they are unaware that an attempt to improve their economy without real reform will set off forces that cannot be controlled.
Revolutions get started when repressed nations begin to move out of poverty and the old regime is unable to manage the changes needed to allow the emerging prosperity to grow.
North Korea, as currently ruled, will never survive the emergence of a quasi-market economy necessary for a better economy.
The path to peace
While the North Korean leader is seeking a path forward, peace with the US and South Korea is not the way to preserve his regime.
The quest for nuclear peace on the peninsula to enhance the personal reputations of the three leaders is at variance with the strategic interest of the three nations sketched above. The egos and illusions are leading all three down a dangerous path.
The one country with a clear strategic objective is China. China’s objective is no secret -- to remove American military presence from northeast Asia and subsequently, all of Asia.
The presence of the American military in Asia does three things: First, it reminds China every day that they do not have the military strength to challenge the US, and any war with America would be a disaster for China.
Second, so long as the American navy sits over the Malacca Straits, the Chinese economy survives only on the goodwill of the 7th Fleet. It will be decades before China can build alternative access or become able to challenge American naval superiority, unless the Americans return to Hawaii.
Third, it gives resolve to nations that are not willing to be dominated by China. Apart from Japan and South Korea, these include Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia, where historical anti-Chinese sentiments are powerful.
Singapore, a very modern state, has long chosen the US. Thailand and Myanmar are ambivalent, but do not want the US to reduce its presence, and both find China -- when not balanced with America -- disconcerting.
The Chinese are very open about this; their first strategic objective is to remove or reduce the American military presence in Asia.
What’s next?
Northeast Asia, South Korea, and Japan are the most important targets. Once the US leaves Korea, the relationship with Japan will change.
The Japanese are unlikely to agree to more US military bases in Japan, and with the looming Chinese power and uncertainty about US intentions, Japan will move to take care of its own protection with dangerous consequences.
The US’s 7th fleet will lose its forward bases and Chinese influence will expand. In southeast Asia, the main US ally is Singapore, and it is likely if the US military presence in South Korea is given up, and Japanese relations with the US become more tepid, Singapore will become more neutral. This opens the Straits of Malaysia, and China’s sea lanes are finally protected.
For the Chinese, the events in Korea are going according to their strategic objective. The Chinese have supported North Korea since 1953 and the end of the Korean War. There is a mutual defense treaty wherein China protects North Korea. The build-up of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles has been nurtured by the Chinese; one has to be very naive to believe otherwise.
Once the North Koreans have been successful in manufacturing nuclear weapons, the basis is established for a deal to give up the nuclear weapons in return for the departure of the American military from South Korea.
This will take some years to be completed but this is the direction in which the Chinese seek to go. This deal is what leads to American departure from Asia.
As these negotiations for Korean peace get started, Asian leaders’ expectations are likely to conclude that the Americans are on the way out of Asia.
Of course, all of this will be denied, and nothing will happen rapidly, but things will change and the new normal will be reduction of the US military presence, starting in South Korea, and eventually throughout Asia.
The current American government will be delighted with the favourable publicity and worldwide approval of moving towards Korean peace: No more nuclear weapons and no more America military bases.
The American president will be very proud of his achievement. The South Koreans will be split. Many are fearful of a reduction of the American military presence and will object, but the majority will back President Moon’s efforts. North Korea, stroked by China will go long. Nuclear war will recede.
With the world cheering, North Korea will pack up their nuclear program, the American Korean bases will close down. The Japanese will shiver. The Chinese will smile.
Moon, Kim, and Trump will head for Oslo and the Nobel Peace Prize.
Forrest Cookson is an American economist.
