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IMF: Bangladesh to overtake India in per capita GDP

  • Published at 11:32 pm October 13th, 2020
GDP Growth
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For 2021, the IMF forecast a 4.4% GDP growth for Bangladesh

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Bangladesh is all set overtaken its neighbour India in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in 2020, despite slow growth due to the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, released on its website on Wednesday, Bangladesh overtook India as its per capita GDP in dollar terms is likely to expand by 4% in 2020 to $1,888. Its per capita GDP is growing at a rate faster than its GDP.

Meanwhile, India's per capita GDP is expected to slump by 10.5% to $1,877, which is the lowest in the last four years. The GDP numbers for both countries are at current prices.

The IMF outlook also projected the Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 3.8% for 2020.

However, it previously forecast a 2% growth for Bangladesh economy in its previous World Economic Outlook released in April earlier this year.

For the next year, the IMF forecast 4.4% GDP growth for Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, emerging and developing Asia's economy will see a 1.7% contraction but rebound in 2021 with a 8% growth, it also read.

“The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the Covid-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations,” said the outlook report.

While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks, it adds.

Among other South Asian countries, IMF estimated a 10.3% contraction for India's GDP, while Bhutan’s economy is predicted to grow by 0.6%, Sri-Lanka at -4.6%, Pakistan -0.4% and Nepal to remain flat.

Global projection

However, the global growth is projected at −4.4% in 2020, a less severe contraction than forecast in the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, said the IMF.

The revision reflects better-than-anticipated second quarter GDP outturns, mostly in advanced economies, where activity began to improve sooner than expected after lockdowns were scaled back in May and June, as well as indicators of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, it said.

Global growth is projected at 5.2% in 2021, a little lower than in the June 2020 WEO Update, reflecting the more moderate downturn projected for 2020 and consistent with expectations of persistent social distancing, the global lender said.

Following the contraction in 2020 and recovery in 2021, the level of global GDP in 2021 is expected to be a modest 0.6% above that of 2019.

The growth projections imply wide negative output gaps and elevated unemployment rates this year and in 2021 across both advanced and emerging market economies, it added.

The uncertainty surrounding the baseline projection is unusually large. The forecast rests on public health and economic factors that are inherently difficult to predict.

A first layer relates to the path of the pandemic, the needed public health response, and the associated domestic activity disruptions, most notably for contact-intensive sectors.

Another source of uncertainty is the extent of global spillovers from soft demand, weaker tourism, and lower remittances.

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