Forecast the UK-based global Economics and Business Research organization
Bangladesh will jump 19 notches and become the world’s 24th largest economy by 2033, from its current 43rd status in the World Economic League, forecast a UK-based global Economics and Business Research organization.
The graduation of the country will take place due mainly to the continuous economic growth of the economy, it said.
The organization, ‘Centre for Economics and Business Research’ has recently unveiled the World Economic League Table forecasting the economies for 193 countries to 2033.
“We expect annual rates of GDP growth to average 7.0% between 2018 and 2033. This will see the country climb 19 places in the World Economic League Table to become the world’s 24th largest economy by 2033,” said the report in its forecast.
It said Bangladesh is a South Asian country sharing land borders with India and Myanmar. With a population of over 163 million, it is the eighth most populous country in the world. The country has seen robust growth averaging 6.3% per year over the past decade. Its GDP per capita stands at $4,600 in PPP international dollars, making it a lower-middle income country by the World Bank’s definition.
“Garments are the main export good of the Bangladeshi economy, accounting for over 80% of total exports in the financial year ending 2017. Remittances are a further important source of income for the country. Around 43% of Bangladeshis work in the agriculture sector, mostly producing rice and jute. Maize, vegetables and wheat play a smaller albeit growing role in the country.”
The report said Bangladesh’s economy is expected to have grown by 7.3% over 2018, just shy of the 7.4% recorded in 2017. The country has benefitted from a strong increase in remittances in the financial year ending 2018, after declines in the previous two years.
“Moreover, the export sector benefitted from the duty free access to the Indian market, pushing exports to $375 million in the three months to September. Indian clothing retailers, as well as global retailers opening Indian outlets, increasingly import from Bangladesh due to the competitive prices of their products.”
Bangladesh’s competitiveness relative to India was further boosted by the introduction of a General Sales Tax in India, a step that is still outstanding in Bangladesh, the forecast said.
“Growth in Bangladesh’s economy is driven by domestic consumption expenditure, government spending, remittances and exports. While the country has made important steps towards modernising its economy in recent years, significant challenges remain.,” the report added.
As for the economy, the report said Bangladesh runs the risk of negating gains from its successful export sector through its growing appetite for imports. The current account tipped into a deficit in 2017, and this is expected to widen in 2018.
“The government will also need to explore options on how to increase revenues in order to finance upgrades for infrastructure while maintaining the social safety net. The country is further grappling with the Rohingya refugee crisis.”