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Survey predicts 248 seats for Grand Alliance, 49 for Oikya Front

  • Published at 09:09 pm December 26th, 2018
WEB_RDC survey on election_Courtesy_Edited_26.12.2018.jpg
Economist and researcher Forrest E Cookson, right, unveils the findings of a survey on voting intentions, conducted by the Research and Development Center, during a press conference in Dhaka on Wednesday, December 26, 2018 Courtesy

The private research organization revealed the survey results on the 11th general election on Wednesday


With the 11th general election only a few days away, results of an independent online survey has revealed that the Awami League-led Grand Alliance is likely to sweep the elections by winning 248 seats in parliament. 

The Research and Development Center (RDC), a non-government research organization, conducted the survey on December 9-16, aiming to find out the voting intentions of Bangladeshi voters. The results were revealed at a press conference at The Westin Dhaka hotel on Wednesday. 

According to the survey, Jatiya Oikya Front is likely to win 49 seats, and three seats will go to independent candidates. 

Addressing the press conference, RDC researcher and veteran American economist Forrest E Cookson said the survey was aimed at informing the likely outcome of the election, which is due on Sunday. 

A total of 2,249 individuals took part in the survey, 98% of whom said they wanted to vote in the elections. 

The sample was drawn using the 2011 census to provide information on the population of upazilas.  Upazilas were randomly selected with probabilities determined from the census data, the report said. 

Around 60% of the participants said they support the Awami League-led Grand Alliance, 22% said they favoured the BNP/Oikya Front, and only 4% said they supported Jatiya Party. 

Of the rest, 10% said they were undecided, 3% refused to answer, and less than 1% said they did not intend to vote. 

The results are compared with the results of 9th parliamentary elections in 2008, when the Grand Alliance won 57% of the vote, the BNP-led alliance won 37%, and others won 6%, the survey report further added. 

“Pre-election polls are difficult to execute,” Cookson said at the event. “In many locations, persons interviewed will not reveal their true party preferences. This behaviour may arise from an attitude that it is not the business of the enumerator to ask, or fear that the authorities will punish the voter for supporting the opposition party.” 

He further said such polling is frequently carried out in democratic countries in the period before elections. 

The RDC report said their analysis took into account the changes in constituency boundaries over the past 27 years.