On the eve of 2014 election results in India, political circles and armchair experts are abuzz with fevered speculation that is part fact, part fiction but totally reflective of the sort of electioneering that has taken place.
Exit polls have provided the people with a range of options, with some pegging the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as having bagged over 300 seats, whilst others, more conservative pollsters peg them at over 230 seats out of a total of 543.
And just to add a further dose of deliciousness to the feverish predictions, the exit polls have been found to be spectacularly off the mark in the two previous general elections in India. So looking towards the exit polls is an exercise in futility.
However, there are some central themes being discussed that should prove to be pivotal, no matter the amount of seats bagged by the Narendra Modi-led BJP or the rudderless Congress under the insipid command of the latest Nehru-Gandhi scion.
Should the NDA not bag enough seats to cross the 272 mark, they will need allies. In which case, allies loathe to be associated with Modi, but crucial to government formation shall force the BJP to offer up an alternative prime ministerial candidate.
Tish and Fipsy. Tosh. Anybody who has even remotely followed the high decibel, energetic and demagogic BJP campaign understands that the BJP cannot even begin to entertain that thought. Across the nation, and in every major newspaper, are reports that make clear people are, in swathes of the Indian mainland, voting not for their local candidate but for Modi. He has managed to project himself through a series of inspired, if sometimes cynical, moves, as a harbinger of change and “vikas” (development). The BJP has ridden that particular ride for far too long to hop off now. Irrespective of results, Modi will remain the BJP’s (and NDA’s) prime ministerial daavedaar (claimant).
The Congress may give outside support to a possible Third Front in case the NDA numbers do not add up.
The Congress has suffered a series of serious setbacks in the recent past everywhere it has gone to state assembly polls. The writing has been on the wall for them for over two years now, if not more. Sources close to the Congress leadership have made it explicitly clear that Rahul Gandhi has decided to focus on reviving the Congress Party and sit in the opposition for the next five years at least. In such morale sapping times, the Congress would do well to reach out to erstwhile allies and other parties who do not get a share in the ruling dispensation. The chances of a Third Front forming any sort of government are as fanciful as Rahul being anointed the prime minister of India when the results come out today.
Regional satraps such as Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Mamata Banerjee, Mulayam Singh and Mehbooba Mufti will play a decisive role in any new government.
Regional players will always have a part to play in any parliament formation in modern India. With Mayawati set to trounce arch enemy Mulayam Singh, and Jayalalitha to be the largest gainer in Tamil Nadu, regional parties should manage over a 100 seats between them. A significant number that can help nudge the BJP over the 300-seat-mark it so desperately wants in order to demonstrate the strength of its mandate. Of the major regional players, there are perhaps just three – Mulayam Singh, the released from jail, reinvigorated Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Nitish Kumar, who cannot join any BJP-led dispensation. Mayawati first came to power backed by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Mamata Banerjee was a proud NDA-ite, Mehbooba Mufti has already made encouraging, if subtle, noises about joining the NDA and Jayalalitha is known to have a strong personal dynamic with Modi. So, regional strongmen (and women) will bring goodies to the parliamentary party. Just do not expect them to rub their hosts the wrong way and upset the apple cart.
Muslims have resorted to tactical voting to stop the rise of Modi and the politics he represents.
Fipsy and Tish. Tosh. No amount of “tactical voting” can negate the simple truth that Muslims, as India’s second largest religious grouping, only account for roughly 15% of the electorate. That does not allow for anything more than swing votes in certain areas. Also, Indian Muslims are not as polarised as some commentators on the “secular” side of the divide will try and claim.
The road to Delhi is through the politically critical state of Uttar Pradesh.
True. And with 80 seats up for grabs, the BJP had begun its campaign with the intention of bagging at least 30 seats, and wished for 40, in this political cauldron of caste, kinship and political intrigue. The latest voices from Uttar Pradesh seem to give BJP more than it desired. If that turns out to be true today, then people should line up, and like the author, purchase Modi Masks and watch his coronation. From Chai-wallah to Chair wallah. A long way travelled.