Labour Day is traditionally when the US presidential election enters its final stretch. The next nine weeks will feature a handful of debates and a lot of frenzied campaigning. They will also be decisive, as new polls suggest Donald Trump is closing the gap on Hillary Clinton.
The latest projections of CBC’s Presidential Poll Tracker show that Clinton’s lead over Trump has been cut in half over the last month. In the wake of her party’s national convention, the Democratic nominee had opened up a margin of more than six points over her Republican rival in early August.
Now, Clinton is estimated to have the support of 45.4% of decided voters, followed closely by Trump at 42.2%. That 3.2-point margin is the smallest it has been in the national polling average since the end of the Republican convention in July.
The polls have tightened quickly. In polls conducted over the past week, Clinton has averaged a lead of just under two points among decided voters. Her lead was twice as wide in polling done the previous week — and Trump led in just one of 13 surveys done at the time.
On average, 12.4% of decided voters say they will vote for third party candidates, including Libertarian Gary Johnson. With 15% being the threshold for inclusion in the debates, it appears unlikely he will be on the stage with the two major candidates.
Swinging states
Clinton’s lead in the electoral college is much more comfortable. If the election were held today, she would likely win 341 electoral college votes, compared to 197 for Trump. In order to win the White House, Clinton needs 270 votes.
But the certainty of her electoral college edge has decreased dramatically. As recently as August 29, the Poll Tracker estimated Trump’s upper electoral college vote potential (which assumes he wins all of the “lean” states) to be just 218. It is now 274, putting it just over what Trump would need to become the next American president.
Considering the projected margins in the swing states, the mark of 274 electoral college votes is well within Trump’s grasp. In addition to the states he is projected to win more comfortably, he would need to take Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, while also holding on to his lead in Iowa.
New polling done for the Washington Post, conducted in all 50 states, put Trump in a tie with Clinton in Colorado, ahead by one point in North Carolina, and up by four in Ohio. He was down by just two points in Florida and three points in Nevada.
This is a plausible map for Trump, though by no means an easy one. While the Washington Post survey had Trump in a good position in Colorado and Florida, polls done within the last month have shown much wider margins for Clinton — as high as the double digits. Polling in Ohio has been more consistently positive for Clinton in the past as well.
But while Trump played into Clinton’s hands on this issue during the primary season and for much of the summer, his improving poll numbers and the past (relatively) controversy-free few weeks suggest he may be learning the lessons of the campaign trail. Can he keep it up for 62 more days?
[This is an excerpt of a CBC article, which can be found at http://bit.ly/2cFS6fi]