Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Sunday surpassed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for the first time this cycle.
The forecast indicates that Trump has a 52% chance of winning the presidency, while Harris stands at 42%.
Since late August, the model had consistently favored Harris, with her chances hovering around 54-56%, while Trump held about 44-46%. However, in early October, the gap began to close, and the candidates are now nearly even.
This shift in the forecast aligns with Trump's improved polling averages in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously leaned toward Harris. Trump already had a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Of the seven critical swing states in 2024, Pennsylvania is the only one where Harris still leads, according to The Hill report.
The US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, with early voting already underway in states like Georgia, California, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama.
The elected candidate will begin their four-year term in the White House starting from the inauguration on January 20, 2025.
Meanwhile, Trump hits the campaign trail in hurricane-hit North Carolina on Monday, having heavily criticized the government's disaster response after at least 124 people were killed there by storm Helene.
Emergency services are still distributing food and water in the worst-affected parts of the state almost a month after Helene slammed into the southeastern United States, leaving more than 240 dead in its wake, according to an AFP tally.
Trump will hold a campaign rally in the city of Greenville, while Harris is set to address supporters in other battleground states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The two candidates are locked in a neck-and-neck race for the White House with just over two weeks until Election Day.
In North Carolina, emergency services continue to address the storm's aftermath, with urban search-and-rescue teams still at work in some areas.
On Sunday, the White House said the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had "approved more than $300 million in assistance across the state, including $118 million in individual assistance to more than 87,600 households."
The immediate aftermath of the storm left many without access to power, drinking water or shelter, leading Trump to sharply criticize US President Joe Biden and his vice president, Harris.
Biden and Harris have rejected the allegations, accusing Trump of spreading misinformation about the response for political gain.