Iranian missile strikes on Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Manama are not only damaging buildings and infrastructure -- they are undermining the carefully cultivated image of stability long projected by the Gulf states, according to an analysis by Al Jazeera.
For years, countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have sought to insulate themselves from the region’s recurring conflicts, positioning themselves as hubs of commerce, aviation and finance amid Middle Eastern turmoil.
Now, with missiles landing in or near their cities, that buffer appears to be collapsing.
In its analytical piece, Al Jazeera argues that Gulf governments face a stark dilemma: retaliate and risk being drawn deeper into a conflict aligned with Israel and the United States, or refrain from responding while absorbing attacks on their own territory.
The escalation followed Saturday’s joint US-Israeli assault on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior military officials.
Strikes targeted military and government infrastructure across Iran.
Iranian authorities also reported heavy civilian casualties, including a deadly strike on a school.
Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks aimed at US military installations in Israel and across the Gulf.
In the United Arab Emirates, at least three people were reported killed and dozens injured.
Missiles -- or debris intercepted mid-air -- struck near airports, high-rise buildings and key commercial zones in Dubai, Manama and Kuwait City.
Smoke was seen rising in parts of Doha, while Saudi Arabia reported missile impacts in Riyadh and the kingdom’s eastern region.
Reluctant participants
Al Jazeera notes that Gulf states had worked actively to prevent such a confrontation.
Oman had been mediating indirect talks between Tehran and Washington for weeks.
Just hours before the strikes, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi described a negotiated settlement as “within reach,” saying Iran had signaled willingness to limit uranium stockpiles and reduce enrichment levels.
Monica Marks, a professor of Middle East politics at New York University Abu Dhabi, told Al Jazeera that for residents and policymakers in the Gulf, witnessing missile strikes on cities like Doha and Dubai is as shocking as Americans seeing bombardments in major US cities.
She said Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states had watched tensions build for months and understood that if cornered, Iran would likely retaliate against its Gulf neighbors before accepting defeat.
Vulnerable infrastructure
According to Al Jazeera’s analysis, Gulf leaders are particularly concerned about critical infrastructure.
Electricity grids, desalination plants and energy facilities are central to daily life in the region’s extreme climate.
Without air conditioning and water purification systems, the Gulf’s heat and aridity could quickly create a humanitarian emergency.
An extended campaign targeting such infrastructure would paralyze economies and test social stability, analysts warn.
A new regional dynamic
The conflict also signals a shift in the nature of warfare in the Middle East.
For years, Gulf states focused on threats from non-state actors such as Yemen’s Houthi movement or Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
The current confrontation represents direct state-to-state hostilities.
Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that the region is witnessing a resurgence of conventional interstate conflict.
Instead of proxy battles and “grey-zone” tactics, the confrontation now involves overt military exchanges between sovereign states.
Marks noted that before the current escalation, some Gulf governments had increasingly viewed Israel as a destabilizing force following earlier regional tensions.
However, the direct Iranian strikes on Gulf cities have altered strategic calculations.
Narrowing options
Gulf states are now recalibrating their positions.
One possible strategy is to remain outside the conflict as much as possible, a course most would prefer.
Yet as missiles fall near airports and financial districts, the space for neutrality is shrinking.
As Al Jazeera’s analysis concludes, the Gulf’s glittering skyline -- long a symbol of insulation from regional chaos -- is no longer shielded.
The next phase of the conflict may determine whether the region can avoid a broader, more entrenched war or is drawn fully into it.