Scientists estimated on Wednesday that rising temperatures caused by human-driven climate change were responsible for around 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer, based on modelling projections ahead of official data releases.
The rapid study is the latest attempt by climate and health researchers to quickly connect heatwave fatalities to global warming, without waiting months or years for peer-reviewed publications.
The deaths were not directly recorded but projected using methods applied in previously peer-reviewed studies. Experts say death tolls from heatwaves are often underestimated, as hospital records typically cite causes such as heart or respiratory failure that are triggered or worsened by extreme heat, particularly among the elderly.
To assess this summer’s impact, a UK-based research team used climate modelling to estimate that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2°C hotter across 854 European cities between June and August.
Drawing on historical data that shows mortality spikes during heatwaves, the researchers projected some 24,400 excess deaths during that period. They then compared that figure to how many would have died in a world not 1.3°C warmer due to fossil fuel-driven climate change.
According to the study, nearly 70% — or 16,500 — of the excess deaths were attributable to global warming.
“This suggests climate change could have tripled the number of heat-related deaths this summer,” said the study, conducted by scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
The same team previously applied similar methods to a single European heatwave beginning in late June, reaching comparable conclusions.