As the Russian war in Ukraine rolls into the fourth day, Vladimir Putin is set to pull his Belarusian ally Aleksandr Lukashenko into his military campaign, say media reports.
Citing several sources, the Kyiv Independent reported on Monday that the decision has been taken and the first aircraft carrying Belarusian paratroopers is likely to take off within hours.
Speculations of Belarus joining Russia’s war against Ukraine started to swirl on Sunday after a report presented to diplomatic circles by unnamed Belarusian opposition journalists, it said.
“The message suggested that Belarusian troops might be deployed to the Kyiv or the Zhytomyr areas in assistance to the Russian invading force,” reads the report.
Kyiv Independent, however, said it could not verify the report presented to the diplomatic circles, but said there have been other indications of Belarusian military activity.
Citing a US official, the Washington Post reported that Belarus was preparing to deploy troops into Ukraine to support the Russian invasion.
“It’s very clear Minsk is now an extension of the Kremlin,” the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security development, told the Post on Sunday.
Belarusian President Lukashenko is a close ally of Putin, and he has allowed Russian troops to assemble in Belarus and conduct large-scale military drills there, the official said. If Belarus joins the Russian invasion, it would significantly complicate proposed talks between Russia and Ukraine, which the two sides had planned to hold at the Ukrainian border with Belarus.
Ukraine’s presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said on Monday, numerous indications suggested that the Belarusian military was being put on alert.
According to Belarusian media, the country’s armed forces include nearly 45,000 military personnel and 20,000 civilian employees.
In Arestovych’s opinion, just 17,000 Belarusian military personnel are of considerable combat efficacy, so their involvement would likely not be that significant for Russia, which amassed at least 150,000 troops for the invasion of Ukraine, says the Kyiv Independent report
On Sunday, Lukashenko said that Belarusians started facing violence in Ukraine and that Kyiv is threatening Belarus with terror activities. It echoed the pretext that Putin gave for launching the invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Amid concerns, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone call with Lukashenko on Sunday, following which the Ukrainian leader said Lukashenko reassured him of his non-involvement in Russia’s war.
However, according to former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, in reality, the Belarusian dictator, whose existence highly depends on Putin, has no choice other than to join.
From the expert’s perspective, Belarus’s involvement would be an escalating factor, though it would not have a dramatic escalation effect in the war. In particular, Lukashenko might invade Ukraine’s northwestern regions on which Russia is not currently focused.
“But the Belarusian military has no combat experience, at all,” Zagorodnyuk said. “It really matters. And they are not motivated, they do not really understand what they will be doing in Ukraine.”
The media campaign to warn off Belarusian soldiers from joining the Ukrainian invasion has just started, and it needs to be continued, Zagorodnyuk said.
“If god forbid, Lukashenko gives an order to go in, I hope many would refuse to shoot at Ukrainians,” he said. “Otherwise, this will be a historic tragedy between the two peoples.”