UK election result may have major impact on Brexit talks

Brussels and other EU capitals will await the result of the UK general election with more than usual interest: it could have a major impact on potentially fraught talks over Britain’s exit from the bloc, scheduled to begin barely 10 days later. The first formal Brexit negotiating round under article 50 is due to take place on 19 or 20 June, with the chances of a bruising early clash over the sequencing of the talks and the size of the divorce settlement seen as high. European diplomats in London and Brussels said the election outcome could have a real bearing on the talks if Theresa May finds herself weakened by a smaller than expected majority or – more dramatically – confronted with a hung parliament. May last month accused Brussels and the EU27 of “issuing threats” against Britain in an attempt “to affect the result of the election”. In fact, continental capitals would mostly prefer the government to have a strong majority since it would then feel confident enough to make concessions. A hung parliament, though viewed as less likely, would have an even greater impact on the talks, almost certainly delaying their start while a coalition government was formed in London and set about redefining the UK’s Brexit negotiating positions. Few European governments are predicting a Labour victory. Most believe May will be returned with an enhanced majority – and they expect that to lead to at best difficult talks, and at worst a breakdown of the negotiations, possibly as early as this summer. Predicting “the row of the summer”, the Brexit secretary, David Davis, has insisted Britain wants to “see everything packaged up together, and that’s what we’re going to do”, and has also said the UK could “walk away” if confronted with the €100bn settlement the EU is said to be considering. The government, while promising it would make a “generous offer”, could also be headed for conflict with the EU27 over the rights of the 3.5 million EU nationals who have made their lives in the UK and the 1.2 million Britons settled on the continent.