Officially, Europe's conservatives already have a candidate for the next president of the European Commission. But a potentially more palatable alternative is waiting in the wings.
Step forward Michel Barnier, the European Commission's chief Brexit negotiator, basking in the glowing praise of EU leaders who endorsed his deal with the UK on Sunday.
If Barnier becomes Commission president next year, he would be much more than Europe's top bureaucrat. When he ran for the post four years ago, he proposed the Commission should focus on "more politics and less regulation." More recently, he has called for the EU to cooperate more closely in trade, technology and defense to ensure it is a major player on the world stage. As Commission chief, he would also be the ultimate boss of the body negotiating a long-term trade deal with the UK.
Barnier declined to run for the nomination of the European People's Party (EPP), the continent's leading political force, this time around as he was still deep in the Brexit talks during the selection process. At a congress in Helsinki earlier this month, the EPP chose Manfred Weber, the German leader of its group in the European Parliament, to be its so-called Spitzenkandidat — lead candidate for next year's European Parliament election and nominee for Commission president.
But Weber has never held high executive office and a number of EU officials, diplomats and lawmakers doubt he will end up as Commission president. Barnier, by contrast, has served two terms as a European commissioner and held senior ministerial posts in his native France. He has also won plaudits from across the EU — and across political divides — for his work on Brexit, which has given him the perfect opportunity to deepen his network of political contacts around the Continent.
"All those who believe in Europe should stand behind Barnier" — Jean Arthuis, French liberal MEP
Current Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker led the tributes to Barnier after EU leaders backed the Brexit deal, noting he has maintained unity among the EU's 27 members despite great pressure. The leaders went as far as to thank Barnier for his "tireless contribution" in their official conclusions of the summit, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel hailed the Brexit deal as a "diplomatic masterpiece."
All of which means that Barnier is still being discussed in EU circles as a contender to take over the Commission after Juncker's term expires next year, even though he is not technically a candidate.
Barnier has repeatedly avoided commenting on his ambitions, insisting he is fully focused on Brexit. He declined to comment for this article. But earlier this month Barnier gave a speech entitled "Reweave the European flag," that went far beyond his Brexit remit to present a vision of Europe's future. In his letter declining to run for the EPP nomination, Barnier also appeared to leave the door open to taking another top post after his Brexit work.
"Of course, I shall remain committed in future and available to defend our values and renew together the European project," he said in a handwritten final paragraph.
Big obstacles
The Frenchman would need to overcome significant obstacles to make it into the top EU job but none of them seem insurmountable at this stage.
For one thing, installing Barnier as Commission president would be politically fraught. It would risk an institutional crisis between the leaders of EU countries, who propose the Commission chief, and the European Parliament, which has to approve the nomination. The legislature has declared it is ready to reject any nominee who did not run as a Spitzenkandidat in the election.
Brexit also carries an element of danger for Barnier. He has forged rare unity among EU members but he will be defined by the deal's success or failure. If it is rejected by the UK parliament, the EU will almost certainly blame Britain rather than its own point man. But, if some form of deal negotiated by Barnier ends up being ratified, the EU will have to consider whether it wants a front man so closely associated with a venture whose long-term fortunes are uncertain, both for the bloc and for the UK.
Another hurdle for Barnier is that he would need the backing of Emmanuel Macron. That would deprive the centrist French president of the chance to appoint a European commissioner from his own political party.
A senior official from a Southern European country said Barnier could become Commission president but noted bluntly: “Only if Macron wants it too.”
However, Barnier's decades-long commitment to the European project means he has supporters even among politicians from rival camps, particularly in France.
"All those who believe in Europe should stand behind Barnier," said Jean Arthuis, a French liberal who is close to Macron politically and heads the Budgets Committee in the European Parliament. "He has an excellent profile."