For the first time, the UN climate talks have addressed the need to stop burning fossil fuels.
COP28 marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.
Representatives from nearly 200 countries on Wednesday agreed at the COP28 climate summit to begin reducing global consumption of fossil fuels to avert the worst of climate change
This is the first of its kind deal signaling the eventual end of the oil age.
This outcome must be harnessed by governments and markets, but clearly signals the beginning of the end for coal, oil and gas in the global economy and the massive growth and affordability of renewables.
However, COP28 did not achieve Sultan Al Jaber’s stated goal of delivering the 1.5 °C target in response to the first ever global stocktake.
The deal is still heavy with loopholes, lacks timelines and fails to provide the support that the majority of the world’s people are going to need to finance the rapid transition and major scale up of adaptation that is now required, said a press release issued on Wednesday.
The UAE positioned itself as a mediator between the Global North and the Global South.
Global south voices came out at this COP stronger than ever, yet the true potential of the COP was undercut by major fossil producing countries, who seemed to act in concert, and left vulnerable countries disappointed and concerned about the process to strike the deal.
Countries must take this outcome as a clear signal to stop approving new fossil fuel infrastructure, stop subsidising coal, oil and gas, and start building wind, solar and storage and protecting nature at pace. These commitments must feature in their 2025 national climate plans.
Rich countries expected to go first and fastest, cutting emissions from all gases and making concrete steps to phase out fossil fuels across their entire economy.
The economic reality will kill some of the false solutions that this text still gives room to, such as CCS and so called “transition fuels”, but these cannot be allowed to distract from the job at hand.
At COP29 in Baku, finance must be at the forefront. 2024 must result in technical and political processes that fill the urgent gaps which exist in energy transition, adaptation and loss and damage finance. The rich world must support the developing world to develop energy access and economic activity powered by renewables as fast as possible, while closing down rich world fossil-fuel infrastructure.
To save lives and livelihoods, investments must be made in building resilience in communities around the world. This will strengthen supply chains. Fairer trade and financing rules will grease the wheels of the transition. Rich countries cannot just buy up tracts of forests in poorer countries to offset their emissions.
The process of addressing the climate crisis never stops. Closing the major loopholes, addressing nature, making financial and trade systems fairer for climate policy, and fixing the carbon markets will be vital through COPs 29 and 30.
Specific issue outcomes
CCS
CCS got a kicking at COP28. Everyone from John Kerry, Wopke Hoekstra and Patrick Pouyanné have ruled it out as a broad based solution for capturing fossil fuel emissions, and the COP outcome limits its use too hard to abate sectors. Reports released during COP showed reliance on CCS would cost $1 trillion extra per year and risk a catastrophic blow out of our carbon budget.
In November, IEA chief Fatih Birol delivered a scathing assessment of CCS heavy pathways as “pure fantasy.”
Loss and Damage
It was a major achievement of this COP that the Loss and Damage fund got up and $655.9 million in pledges were made to fill it. However, the world is spending the same total amount of money that has been pledged to the loss and damage fund every 3.5 hours on subsidizing the use of fossil fuels that are causing that loss and damage.
Vulnerable countries have had to walk away from COP28 without any clarity on the scale of funding and how consistent it will be. Countries cannot resort to PR pledges alone only when the world's attention is on them.
Adaption
Impacts won’t stop overnight. Climate change is taking lives and livelihoods - adapting can save them.
The adaptation playbook will take two years to deliver, the metrics, indicators and promise of financing is only vaguely spelled out in Dubai.
Financing for adaptation remains far behind even the inadequate amounts which go to the energy transition in emerging economies.
This COP shirked firm targets not just for finance, but also capacity building, technology and a route to deliver a playbook with concrete indicators.
The playbook must be bolstered so it is a guiding star that builds resilience and reduces vulnerability, that boosts support for countries rolling out adaptation plans, and to track progress.
The goal for 2023 was to raise $300m for the Adaptation Fund, but COP28 only delivered $169m in pledges, a mere 56% of the intended amount. According to the 2023 UNEP Adaptation Gap report progress on climate adaptation is slowing on all fronts, with the financing gap now at a staggering US$ 194–366 billion per year. Even as needs are growing, international public funding for adaptation in developing economies declined by 15% in 2021.
Investing in the resilience of one country helps others through reinforcing supply chains and protecting economies and communities from Latin America, Africa, Asia, Oceania and beyond. As farmers battle the elements, major trading routes are under pressure. The number of ships allowed through the Panama Canal - which carries 3% of global trade - is being slashed as the region battles with drought, with higher freight costs expected.
As global temperatures spike, so do extreme weather events. As Mia Mottley said at COP28, for every $1 invested in adaptation you save $7 in loss & damage. But, it’s not just about money. It’s also about lack of effective adaptation action - most adaptation is incremental and not meeting the scale of the challenge.
Money
Despite the strong statement on the need for financial support for developing countries, there are little to no actual provisions for new commitments on money for adaptation or mitigation - a factor which dragged down ambition on the whole outcome. A technical and political process for a new finance target was agreed and will land next year.
But as the COP28 outcome acknowledges, money is available and can be made available through taxes and other measures. Last year, $4.5 billion a day in public financial support went to subsidising fossil fuels. That means the world is spending the same total amount of money that has been pledged to the loss and damage fund every 3.5 hours on subsidising the use of fossil fuels that are causing that loss and damage. It’s a very weak outcome on this vital front, even with the breakthrough of the establishment of the Loss & Damage facility.
Carbon markets
Progress on a rule book to govern the carbon markets broke down with the difficult decisions booted to next year. The rules that were agreed give carte blanche to carbon market cowboys. Negotiated against a backdrop of land grabs across Africa and an integrity crisis in the voluntary market, Article 6 was supposed to act as a guiding star. Its job is to protect us all through a common rule book that levels the playing field. Without these rules, we could legitimise the wild west. This cannot be allowed, and it must be resolved in 2024
Food
Food - the forgotten third of global emissions - finally got its moment in the sun with companies, cities and world leaders pledging to put food in their climate plans and a new roadmap to cut emissions and hunger. But governments failed the first test - there is virtually no mention of food in the global stocktake and food isn't linked to national climate plans.
Nature
The days of nature being a footnote at COPs could be coming to an end, with nature targets and deforestation declarations embedded in key texts. But as carbon markets flounder, a victim is emerging - standing forests. Attention must now move to how targets are financed, prioritising intact forests, and addressing the gulf between the small amounts on offer and the $700bn a year needed.
Industry
As CEO of UAE oil company ADNOC, Sultan Al Jaber said he was the one to bring the industry to the table and get them to act. But as it turns out, record numbers of fossil fuel lobbyists and their allies in various fossil fuel polluting governments were able to get gas, CCS and weak mitigation text out of this COP all the while painting themselves as keen to act. While this COP took place 37 oil and gas deals were struck, compared to 22 during last year’s summit. The emissions from these deals alone are likely to eclipse any reductions made through the voluntary Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter which 50 companies signed up to.