A collective sigh of relief rang out over Berlin and Brussels in November 2022 as the results of the US midterm elections came in: the power shift in Congress toward the Republicans was less dramatic than many had feared, and former president Donald Trump took a heavy blow. Under Trump, the trans-Atlantic relationship had hit rock bottom.
But the Europeans should not rejoice too soon, believes Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin. In a guest op-ed for DW following the vote, he wrote: "Biden will go down in history as the last bleeding heart trans-Atlanticist to occupy the White House."
The time of generous security policy support will soon be over, no matter who is in the White House, if only because the US will concentrate much more on China in the future.
‘Strategic autonomy'
The US is slowly turning away from Europe, China as an increasingly aggressive world power, and now Putin's Russia, which is invading an independent European country — this is the uncomfortable new geopolitical situation Europeans find themselves in.
The war in Ukraine surprised almost everyone, but the other two developments are by no means new. In response, the term "strategic autonomy" has entered the vernacular. It means the EU can act independently from other global political actors militarily, politically, and economically.
Germany's ‘complacency' criticized
But how much progress have the EU and Germany made toward this goal? The European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR, produces the European Sovereignty Index — assessing the areas of climate protection, defense, economy, health, migration, and technology.
According to this, the entire EU has a high degree of sovereignty in economy and health, a satisfactory level in defense, climate protection, and migration, and bad marks in the technology field. There, the EU is considered to be particularly dependent.
Germany received a big demerit point on one issue: Despite its economic power, it is only ranked fifth on the Index for its contribution to European economic sovereignty. That " partly reflects its complacency towards interdependencies with Russia and China." The authors think that Germany must still learn from its past mistakes.
Not everyone in Europe
But Europe is still far from achieving the goal of strategic autonomy, believes Henning Hoff from the German Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank.
It is primarily French President Emmanuel Macron who advocates for European military independence. Since Brexit, France has been the only EU country with nuclear weapons.
Europeans are divided on the question of military autonomy. According to the Baltic states and Poland, the US and Nato should retain a strong role in Europe.
Meanwhile, Mihai Chihaia from the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank, believes the various interests can be brought together. The US supports the EU's efforts for more independence.
China's interest
The goal of strategic autonomy is not just about security and defense. It also includes trade and industry policy, finance, and investment. The Europeans have long upheld multilateralism and free trade, especially against Trump.
Meanwhile, Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, acknowledges that "economic interdependence is becoming very prone to the political conflict": supply chains were interrupted in the pandemic; China deliberately creates dependencies, and Russia could turn off the gas tap at will.
One of the areas listed in the Berlin coalition agreement of late 2021 as particularly worthy of protection is the energy supply. The war in Ukraine has made Germany's level of dependence in this area abundantly clear.
German-French friendship
Good relations between Germany and France, the EU's two biggest countries, were traditionally seen as central to the bloc. But now relations seem to have soured and, in many areas, projects are on hold in many areas — ranging from the joint FCAS fighter aircraft project to other issues where sometimes one side feels left out, sometimes the other.
Henning Hoff criticizes the German government for ignoring "the fact that its own, national actions have European consequences and should always be coordinated with France.
Scholz has "not yet found his role on the European stage. If the many dissonances in Franco-German relations are not reduced soon, European autonomy will be.