With the death of Ayman Al Zawahiri in a drone strike at Kabul, one can reasonably claim that the book on War on Terror has entered the last chapter, if not the very last paragraphs. The killing of this almost forgotten old man underscores the point that historical episodes often end with a whimper, not with a bang.
It is somewhat ironic that the death of the last major leader of Al Qaeda, surely the most famous and influential group of non-state actors in modern history, happened when the world is again witnessing hot and cold clashes between great states. The biggest conventional military confrontation in Europe since WW2 is happening in Ukraine, where the USA is essentially bankrolling and directing the Ukrainian state in its fight against Russia, the successor state of the former superpower. USA and the current claimant state for world power, China, are almost on the brink of war over Taiwan.
Throughout recorded history, rivalry among great powers over hegemony has been the great engine that drove human history. From ancient Egypt and Hittites, Greeks and Persians, Romans and every power around them, Ottomans and Europe, every power within Europe from the 15th century to the end of WW2, the Cold War between USA and USSR, attempts to establish and challenge hegemony have largely driven the evolution of human politics and society. It seems that we are back into the usual pattern in world history.
9/11 and the War on Terror were a curious interlude. A band of ragtag, misfits of modernity, trained and plotted in the hills of Afghanistan to change the course of world history through shock and awe. Al Qaeda’s hijacking of four passenger aircrafts at the same time and efforts to crash them against monuments of American economic and military power, was breathtakingly shocking in simplicity, audacity, and sheer dastardliness.
The act was designed to goad USA into overreacting internationally and domestically. And USA overreacted spectacularly. The world turned upside down overnight.
It is not necessary to go through the course of the War on Terror and its effects on the world. Everyone who has lived through the past two decades as a conscious adult is aware of them. However, it is worthwhile to briefly ruminate on the overall effects of WoT, and realize how utterly Al Qaeda failed in its overarching objectives.
Yes, USA wasted a huge amount of resources and lives in the WoT without attaining any durable achievements. However, compared to its previous wars in 20th century, both successes and failures, USA actually spend significantly less in WoT in terms of economic capacity. Expressed in percentage of GDP at the peak year of expenditure in war, USA spent 1.2% in WoT, 2.5% in Vietnam, 4% in Korea, and 35% in World War 2.
US economic power relative to the world may be declining, however, WoT can hardly be argued as a major cause. Politics and society in Europe have changed far more than USA from the effects of WoT but even there, the trends in changes were discernible before 9/11.
The Muslim world has borne the brunt of the WoT and its aftereffects. Not only millions have died from war, bombings, killings, disease, displacement in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and other places, but also oppressive, autocratic regimes have become more entrenched in most of the lands where Muslims comprise a significant portion of the population.
In most Muslim countries and in many non-Muslim countries like China, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, regimes have used the specter of WoT to clamp down on political and social freedom of hundreds of general Muslims. The dream of political unity among Muslims across the countries is more distant now than before that fateful September day in 2001.
Social and economic development of the Muslim world, already lagging compared to others, has fallen further behind. Surely most people would agree that the lot of Muslims all over the world would likely have been far better now if 9/11 and WoT never happened.
Although almost forgotten before his death, Ayman Al Zawahiri was second fiddle to none in the formation and growth of Al Qaeda before 9/11. He was the intellectual guru and ideological mastermind, and many experts claim that Bin Laden was largely the figurehead. He was the main ideological link from past theoreticians of terror like Syed Qutb, who had preached religious justification for individuals and groups to unilaterally declare war on states and societies towards establishing the kingdom of heaven on earth. His death at this moment in time is thus highly symbolic, if not consequential.
Al Qaeda and WoT comprised a digression in history. Fate of countries and societies is largely decided by the collective performance of the people, achievements in social and economic development, education, technology, military power, etc. Collective achievements of nations, great and small, largely determine which nations prevail in history and which disappear or become subordinate. Determined groups of individuals may alter the course of history for some time, but classic patterns of history soon get re-established.
Shafiqur Rahman is a political scientist.