Is Myanmar heading towards a full-blown civil war?

Apart from violating our territorial integrity and sovereignty, the blistering sound of air raids, mortar shelling, and gunfire on our southern border paints a bleak picture of an uncertain future ahead for Myanmar's people, Bangladesh, and the whole region. 

The sound of gunfire also echoes the failure and trouble of Myanmar Junta to establish control over its own country. Experts say the current conflict in Myanmar has all the elements that indicate the country is in the grips of civil war. 

“Burma (Myanmar) is already in the grips of a civil war,” Tanvir Habib Jewel, a lecturer at the Department  of International Relations at University of Dhaka, said.

“Civil wars generally require organized opposition forces, credible challenges to state authority, ground presence, alternative governance apparatus in most cases and external recognition. Burma has all those elements,” he told Dhaka Tribune. 

Anti-coup fighters being given flowers by local residents in a township in Myanmar's northwestern Sagaing region on August 16, 2022 AFP

Mr Tanvir believes the opposition isn’t ethnically delineated but rather an unified front. 

“They’ve been successful at combating Burmese army (Tatmadaw) and security forces. Downplaying it as ‘not yet a civil war’ doesn’t change the situation on ground,” he added.  

Violence skyrocketed

The recent trend of intensified fighting and violence in Myanmar is a testament to a growing discontent against the military establishment which came to power last year after toppling the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy (NDL). 

The military coup has led to a massive pro-democracy movement that has later transformed into armed resistance in the face of the Junta’s brutal crackdown on dissent that killed at least 2,300 civilians across Myanmar. 

An aerial view of Bin village of the Mingin Township in Sagaing region after villagers say it was set ablaze by the Myanmar military, in Myanmar on February 3, 2022 Reuters

Since the coup, an anti-coup resistance movement -- People's Defence Force (PDF) -- has led a popular armed resistance effort across the country. PDF was formed under the leadership of the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government in exile led by the ousted lawmakers of Suu Kyi’s NLD. 

Often armed with little more than homemade weapons and knowledge of the terrain, PDF has managed to surprise the military with their effectiveness. 

In response, the Junta launched indiscriminate air strikes, shelling, and arson attacks against towns and villages to crush the resistance movement. 

Alliances are forging

This indiscriminate violence against the country’s civilians has diminished the already depleted popular support for the Junta, pushing the country to the verge of a civil war as more civilians are taking up arms to fight the military establishment.  

According to Major General (Retd) Nayeem Ashfaque Chowdhury, an expert on Myanmar, the Junta military’s failure in establishing control over the country stems from the lack of popular support due to the indiscriminate violence against its population, lack of professionalism in the Myanmar military and corruption at every level of its military leadership and law enforcement agencies.  

United Wa State Army (UWSA) soldiers participate in a military parade, to commemorate 30 years of a ceasefire signed with the Myanmar military in the Wa State on April 17, 2019 AFP

Junta’s failures have led many influential ethnic armed organizations, also known as Ethnic Armed Forces Organizations (EAOs), to forge alliances to counter the Junta on the battlefield. Some of which have had a cozy relationship with the military establishment. 

Leaders of Myanmar’s seven most powerful ethnic armed organizations, including the Arakan Army, recently met in the isolated Wa region bordering China to bolster their alliance in light of the latest developments. 

Although these groups are not actively fighting to overthrow the Junta regime in Myanmar, in line with the core objective of the PDF, some of these EAOs have actively provided military training and other forms of support to anti-coup resistance.

A ‘proxy’ war for global powers

Like every other modern day conflict around the world, the conflict in Myanmar, according to experts, has already been a flashpoint for global powers.

“The conflict has already turned into a semi-proxy battle. China is fully behind the Burmese regime.” Mr Tanvir said. “While western countries have condemned Burmese actions, provided diplomatic support to the opposition and have helped them get their voices heard.”

As the war in Ukraine has shifted the focus of the west away from this region, Myanmar has been trying to use this opportunity to crush its opponents on the battlefield. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing on the sidelines of the 2022 Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 7, 2022 AFP

With its so called ‘counter-terrorism’ operation going on, The Junta has also been seeking allies both home and abroad to fight back the diplomatic isolation which was imposed by the west last year. 

The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution last June calling for countries to prevent the flow of arms to Myanmar. The call, however, fell on deaf ears.

“Russia, Serbia and China have emerged as key arms suppliers to Burma,” Mr Tanvir told Dhaka Tribune. 

“That does point to an emerging trend in regards to future implications for the broader Asia-Pacific region,” he said. 

Arms Sale to Myanmar AFP

Tom Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur on the rights situation in Myanmar, slammed Russia and China in his report published in February for continuing arms supply to the Junta  despite the “evidence of the atrocity crimes being committed with impunity” since launching a coup last year. 

However, Russia is continuing its military hardware sale to the Junta and is set to deliver new Sukhoi SU-30SM jet fighters in a few months under a contract signed in 2018. 

Consequences for the region

Myanmar's conditions have worsened recently for countless innocent people due to increased violence.

When asked what implications such a large-scale civil conflict could have on this region, Dr Nayeem Ashfaque Chowdhury, who directly handled the Rohingya crisis during his tenure as a Director of Military Operations of the Bangladesh Army, said: “This brutal crackdown has unleashed a major refugee crisis forcing tens of thousands of people from almost every region to flee the country.”

At least 1.3 million people have been forcibly displaced in a bid to escape attacks by the military since the coup, he said, adding that the entire Indo-pacific region and beyond would face the impacts of such a refugee influx. 

The Indian state of Mizoram saw the most significant rise in refugee influx. 

File Photo: Villagers from King village rest in the open after they fled fighting that broke out between fellow villagers and the Myanmar military in Kani township, Sagaing region on May 7, 2021 AFP

According to Hindustan Times, Over 30,000 Myanmar nationals have taken shelter in Mizoram since the military seized power in 2021. 

Despite strict monitoring and surveillance in border areas, Bangladesh is also experiencing a limited refugee influx. 

Since September 10, at least 10-15 Rohingyas have taken shelter in Kutupalong and Balukhali shelter camps in Cox’s Bazar due to renewed fighting between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army in Rakhine

According to Mr Tanvir, The “spectre of violence”  in Myanmar has forced Asean members to     take steps against Myanmar which, in his opinion, is very significant as the group “has rarely if ever taken such actions against any of its members.”

Citing the recent developments in Myanmar’s border with its neighbours, he said: “Both Bangladesh and Thailand have been patient and circumspect in their response (to airspace violation and artillery shelling) but if conflict persists and such violations become regular then Burmese provocations will in future be responded to and that might create region wide instability and chaos.”

Countries around the region have expressed concern regarding the renewed clashes in Myanmar as it threatens the stability of the Indo-Pacific region. 

At a roundtable discussion organized by the Bangladesh Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs earlier this month,  Malaysian High Commissioner Haznah Md Hashim said: “The ongoing insecurity and instability in Rakhine state has caused a spillover effect across the region.

“We fear that if the situation in Rakhine state is not properly addressed, terrorist elements like IS and al-Qaeda can take advantage of this deteriorating situation.”

She further stressed the need for global action to address the security concern arising due to Myanmar's instability.  

Options for Bangladesh

Any form of instability in Myanmar can potentially cause spillover effects in Bangladesh as both countries share a volatile border that stretches almost 300 kilometres. 

Tensions have been escalating between Dhaka and Naypyidaw for over a month now. Multiple cases of air space violation, mortal shelling, and gunfire by Tatmadaw have been reported on the Bangladesh side of the border. 

In response to a recent incident of mortar shelling in Bangladesh which killed an 18-year-old Rohingya boy in the no-man’s land near Bandarban, Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry summoned Myanmar’s Ambassador in Dhaka Aung Kyaw Moe, to protest against the provocation. 

Mr Tanvir believes it was the right move. 

“Bangladesh has been circumspect in its response. It identified the trap set by Burma in entangling Bangladesh into any border clash to completely eliminate any chances of repatriation of Rohingya refugees,” he said. 

However, in his opinion, Bangladesh can do more. 

Proper diplomacy will only be fruitful with on ground presence, according to him. 

File photo: Acehnesse fishermen help evacuate Rohingya children from Myanmar onto the shorelines of Lancok village, in Indonesia's North Aceh Regency on June 25, 2020 AFP

Meanwhile, Dr Nayeem Ashfaque Chowdhury believes Bangladesh needs to maintain “regular, energetic, structured, substantive, and persuasive” diplomatic engagement at every level. 

Dhaka and Naypyidaw have been engaging in diplomatic efforts with the help of China to ensure sustainable repatriation for the Rohingya refugees. 

Dr Chowdhury emphasized the concentration of other friendly countries, such as Turkey and Malaysia, in negotiation. 

He believes Dhaka must improve and establish high-level diplomatic engagement and nurture the bilateral relationship through transparent and open engagement to build confidence with Naipyidaw. 

To ensure sustainable repatriation for the Rohingya refugees, Dr Chowdhury said Bangladesh needs to support the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Gambia, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and other international organizations leading the efforts to hold the Myanmar military accountable for their action against the Rohingya people. 

“More importantly, we need to take appropriate measures to amplify the voices of Rohingya people and their grievances to the international community through leadership-building,” he added. 

According to Dr Chowdhury, Bangladesh must invite sub-regional and regional platforms including Bimstec, Asean, ADB, and Asian Regional Forum (ARF) into the negotiating table. 

Show of deterrence

Calling Myanmar’s provocative action on our southeastern border unacceptable, Dr Chowdhury said Dhaka needs to showcase its military readiness by adopting deterrence measures. 

“We don’t need to mobilize our forces along the border to showcase our military readiness. Even buying heavy military equipment from other countries can be a show of deterrence,” Nayeem said. 

According to Mr Tanvir, Bangladesh could enhance its deterrent posture by the enhancement of its defensive force. 

Members of Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) personnel stand guard along a street at Bandarban on September 19, 2022, after the mortar shells fired from Myanmar landed inside Bangladesh AFP

“Capability, credibility and communication denote the 3C’s of deterrence,” he said, adding, “Bangladesh is right in pursuing a diplomatic solution but carrying a big stick while speaking softly helps.” 

Emphasizing the necessity of strategic communication, Mr Tanvir said, rather than military deployment at the border which might escalate into serious conflict if Burmese forces deliberately target Bangladeshi forces, military exercises in Cox’s Bazar and Bay of Bengal could signal Bangladesh’s capability and credibility.

Bangladesh needs to enhance its bilateral relations with friends and allies which can be helpful in “communicating our concerns and in putting substance to our concerns,” he added. 

Faiaze Ibne Kabir is currently working at Dhaka Tribune.