The technical negotiations were officially closed in Paris yesterday, with the decision to send a 38-page draft climate agreement to ministers to use as the basis for next round of negotiations.
Over the past week, the draft agreement was streamlined and featured bridging proposals which will give the ministers the basis for working through the political issues underlying the deal, providing them with common-ground options from which they can begin their talks.
The draft Paris Climate Agreement that will go to ministers tomorrow was signed off by the negotiators during the closing plenary of the Advanced Durban Platform track of talks in Paris yesterday.
Observers say key milestone reached in Paris yesterday as the draft climate agreement sent to the ministers, despite having many issues to be settled and many brackets remain to be deleted.
What the observers saw yesterday was the spirit of the leaders come through and movement in the negotiating blocs, as different priorities emerged and the North-South dynamic has become more nuanced around most issues, except for finance, where that still is in play.
Saudi Arabia acted as a roadblock while India being a more constructive player in the talks, dropping hints that there would be drama over the next week or so.
On the ratchet mechanism (meant for time to tome reviewing the progress of implementation of the expected agreement), it is complicated. This is the least mature area of the negotiations.
Bangladesh delegation member Prof Ainun Nishat said the parties agreed unanimously on arresting the temperature rise within the range between 1.5 degree and 2 degrees Celsius, which is a big achievement. “We want it to be grant, but many other countries want it to be soft loan.”
He said the loss and damage issue was well documented, but there are some problems with choosing words, particularly about the displaced persons. It still remains within brackets.
Article 11 clearly describes how the countries, lagging behind implementation of the INDCs, will get assistance. The meeting will have to make it clear if anyone does not implement the INDC, he said.
“I think an agreement will be signed in Paris, but whether it will be legally binding or not still remains in the brackets,” he added.
The IPCC will issue a special report on the impact of climate change, and to this effect, involvement of economists will be increased with the scientists.
BIDS Senior Research Fellow Dr Assaduzzaman, who is a delegation member, said developing countries want to put “shall” in many areas, but developed countries want it to be “should” or “will.”
“It is certain that an agreement will be signed or an announcement will come,” he said, adding that there is a plan to take it to the UN sometime in May to be signed by the leaders as a legally binding agreement.
“We’re trying to do something fresh and new to create ambition in Paris,” said Liz Gallagher of E3G. “That’s why we need to make sure review our pledges before 2020, and keep from locking ourselves out of ambitious action,” she added.
“Countries agree that there should be a global goal for adaptation included in any new climate deal,” said Sandeep Chamling Rai of the World Wide Foundation, raising a demand that the goal should be linked to science – by ensuring that actions do not allow global temperatures to increase beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Finance is a core part of the UN climate framework and a key driver of the outcome. But developed countries are not coming forward to deliver plans.
“But we simply can’t expect ambition without some assurance that there will be assistance,” said Brandon Wu, ActionAid.
On differentiation, developed countries have made it very clear that the old two-tiered system will not work. Developing countries have made it very clear that a system in which every country is the same is inequitable and unacceptable.
“We need a third way, a middle ground, which would need to be developed with a clear set of language, and could be based around indicators on responsibility and capacity,” Brandon said.
Officials had their final round of negotiations on Friday before the process goes to the even more crucial segment of ministerial level yesterday afternoon. The crucial second week starts tomorrow when ministers will hold discussions on how further the issues still remained unresolved could be managed.
The officials came up with one single document after having negotiations over the past week on the previous two versions. Two versions of the document were released on the day before – the 38-page one included the “bridging proposals” by facilitators and another was 46-page compilation document.
On Friday evening, a single group got together in an effort to further narrow the options ahead of yesterday’s noon deadline.
Parties considered proposals to streamline the twin texts in order to come up with a cleaner, shorter single document, but could not reach consensus on many sections of the proposed agreement as brackets remaining around many sections.
The signs show an overwhelming majority of countries seeking an ambitious climate deal, but much work remains to be done over the remaining week.
Yesterday was a pivotal moment in the COP process, when officials hand the text over to ministers and Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister and COP President, assumed the responsibility of directing and shaping the negotiations.
Fabius has a challenging week ahead of him. He will likely be passed a text that needs a strong team of minister-level facilitators and a coalition of high ambition countries to move the process forward.
The stage is now set for a re-introduction of the political vision and ambition that world leaders set out at the beginning of COP21.