The election is over, the new government has been sworn in, and a new cabinet is in office. Yet, there are speculations that there will be a mid-term election, since this government came to power through a general election that lacks credibility.
Although the BNP-led 18-party alliance called for an end to all hartals and blockades, there is strong public perception that it is going to be a period of political uncertainty and chaos in Bangladesh.
After a series of violent hartals and blockades that paralysed daily life in the country during the run-up to the election, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s first public meeting was on January 10, the homecoming day of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. As expected, she promised stern action against violence.
The violence that has devoured parts of Bangladesh over the last few months was not a spontaneous outburst by disgruntled democrats. At first, it was started by Jamaat to protest the trial of war criminals. Later, the BNP-led alliance joined the campaign to delegitimise the election, generate chaos, and invite a crackdown.
The BNP also succeeded in bringing far-right Hefazat-e-Islam to the streets, aiming to topple the Hasina government. All these efforts failed to thwart the election and unseat Hasina.
Now is the time for negotiation between the two major parties. Without a fruitful negotiation, no one can make sure a fresh election takes place soon.
Analysts say Hasina will have to call for elections again soon, pointing to worldwide perception that the just-concluded election was not credible. But the reality is different. If BNP and Jamaat fail to generate public support, it will be very difficult for them to force the government into holding another election soon.
There is no doubt that the January 5 election was a one-horse race. It was boycotted by the main opposition. The only parties of consequence in the fray were the AL and Jatiya Party. JaPa’s participation was also ensured through coercion.
As a result of the boycott, 153 of the parliament’s 300 seats were uncontested. Had voter turnout on January 5 been robust, the AL’s win would have had some meaning. The AL seems comfortable since the anti-government force is not organised enough to topple it soon.
Yet, it has to be agreed that this 10th parliament lacks real involvement with the people. Despite constitutional correctness, the new legislature’s legitimacy is questioned at home and abroad.
Bangladeshi politics, since 1991, has been a zero sum game where the AL and the BNP see any ceding of ground to the other as a total loss. The proper functioning of the parliamentary system has become a casualty in the process.
The past year has seen unprecedented unrest and violence, with people resorting to street protests to oppose or support the execution of war criminals, or to demand elections under a neutral caretaker government.
While the question of the identity of the state – secular or Islamist – underlies several of these struggles, it is the feud of the two main parties that fuels the stubbornness.
The BNP-led alliance will try for fresh movement. But during the last 10 months, it was clear that violence was the only instrument at their disposal. BNP and its allies will attempt to disrupt normal life to the point where the government will be forced to dissolve the parliament and call for fresh elections.
Many secularists say another election is not the solution. They say democracy is not in peril in Bangladesh, but secularism is threatened. Foreign diplomats should understand that the chance of a far right political group to take over Bangladesh is high if the government is changed through violence.
Whether we have a secular or moderate Islamic system, Bangladeshi citizens want to see a peaceful country where people can live without fear. No one wants a Pakistan-like situation where killings, riots, and bomb blasts are daily events. People also do not want to see the country in the grip of a single party.
A non-participatory election should not be acceptable to any party that believes in democracy. A meaningful mandate must be sought through fresh polls as soon as possible.
Opposition parties should also think wisely. Violence is not the way to realise demands. People will never take to the streets for them if the parties continue this violence.
A solution can be reached only through talks. But it is feared that once again, talks will suffer because the two parties cannot reach a point on the form and content of the election-time government. However, we can hope that the offer to talk will first come from the party in power.