As the self-declared return date of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina draws closer, discussion of the Awami League in Bangladesh’s political arena keeps growing. The party that those in power have declared “irrelevant,” is the very party they have now started a tug of war over.
On one side, BNP alleges that Jamaat-e-Islami is striking an understanding with them. On the other, Jamaat counter-alleges that BNP is scheming to bring the Awami League back into politics.
Although the Awami League was excluded from the February general election, the field stayed heated with discussion about whom its supporters would vote for, why they would vote for them, or whether they would vote at all. That discussion continues even after the voting. BNP leaders like to say that Awami League supporters voted for Jamaat.
The latest chapter of pointing fingers at each other was started by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman himself at a public rally in Rajshahi last month. “There is clear intelligence information that the autocrat who fled is supplying money there. Whom are they helping by supplying this money? There are some people, a party, who spread confusion in the country. Who tried to sell various tickets to the public before the election, telling lies. These two sides have become one.”
‘Autocrat’ and ‘ticket seller’
Needless to say, by “autocrat” the PM meant the Awami League, and by the party that “sold tickets” before the election, he meant Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat not only rejected this allegation but also made a counter-allegation that BNP came to power by striking an understanding with the Awami League. It is worth mentioning here, though, that even though eight months of the BNP government has passed, no result of this alleged understanding with the Awami League is yet visible.
Both parties claim to be the torchbearers of the 2024 anti-government movement, and day in and day out, they pledge to resist the Awami League’s return to politics. But from their recent talk, it appears that a large part of their politics is taken up by the party that was ousted in 2024.
Awami League leaders are saying that they will not cooperate with any party, whether BNP, Jamaat, or NCP. They want to convey that the ideological gap between the Awami League and these parties is so great that there is no question of an understanding among them.
On the other hand, in the backdrop of Bangladesh’s politics, the possibility of an “understanding” between the Awami League and either Jamaat or BNP cannot be ruled out entirely. A glance at the past shows that just as Jamaat has adopted various kinds of strategies to survive, in exactly the same way, the two big parties have used Jamaat to hurt each other.
It is often understood that Jamaat was rehabilitated in independent Bangladesh with the cooperation of General Ziaur Rahman and his party, BNP. But later the Awami League too did not hesitate to cooperate with Jamaat.
For example, in the 1986 election, the League and Jamaat participated when the other anti-Ershad parties, including BNP, boycotted the vote. The two parties conducted their anti-Ershad movement in coordination with Jamaat, although they refrained from giving Jamaat a place on their own platform. In the country’s politics there was still something called a sense of shame (chokkhulojja) then.
Jamaat in Khaleda’s cabinet
Jamaat’s relationship with BNP began to grow close after Ershad’s fall. Although BNP contested the 1991 election alone, many suspected at that time that an unwritten “understanding” had been reached with Jamaat. Although the BNP won the election, it did not get the seats necessary to form a government. After Jamaat’s 18 MPs extended their support, BNP was able to form the government.
A decade after the first cabinet of Khaleda Zia, BNP and Jamaat formally formed an alliance and jointly took part in the 2001 election. By then the sense of shame of the eighties and nineties had bid farewell to the country.
Having won the election, two former commanders of the Al-Badr force, Motiur Rahman Nizami and Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid, got places in Khaleda Zia’s new cabinet.
The Awami League too has worked together with Jamaat to put BNP in a difficult position. The biggest example of this is the 1994 incident in which the two parties resigned from parliament together, demanding elections under a caretaker government. The two parties conducted the anti-BNP movement together, although outside parliament they never came onto one stage. The Awami League’s sense of shame was still maintained then.
BNP’s relationship with Jamaat is deep. They have contested elections in one alliance and formed a government together. They have agitated together and carried out violence across the country, including arson (jalao-pora, “burn and torch”).
The Awami League has cooperated with Jamaat at certain times for strategic reasons, but in elections or on the streets, the leaders and activists of these two parties were not seen together.
Now the question is: In the present backdrop of politics, how likely is an “understanding” between the Awami League and Jamaat?
Anti-Awami unity
The prime minister spoke of “intelligence” information. Through this statement, it became known that the intelligence agencies have again become active in the political arena, collecting information on opposition parties. But have the intelligence agencies really given this information? And if they have, did they supply correct information, or are they arranging their briefs to serve the government’s current agenda?
The prime minister did not present any evidence in support of his statement, but merely saying “intelligence has information” is also not enough. This is especially so since, from 2001 onward, only BNP’s name was being added to Jamaat’s.
After the 2024 change of power, in the absence of the Awami League, the Jamaat sees itself as BNP’s rival for power. BNP too is getting the chance to shoot fish in a barrel. Neither of these two parties wants the Awami League to return to politics. They do not want it in their own interests. Opposition to the Awami League holds these two parties together in a kind of unity.
Jamaat probably sees the announcement of Sheikh Hasina’s return as a sign of some understanding behind the scenes. Along with them, the young leaders of NCP have also become somewhat restless over the Awami League question.
The protests, including long marches, by Jamaat and NCP in various regions of the country, are being held for the implementation of the July Charter. It can be assumed that another aim of this program is to keep up pressure so that the government does not become lenient towards the Awami League.
Awami League’s challenge
The war of words between BNP and Jamaat-NCP is now at the stage of the boxing “shadow fight.” The two sides are circling each other but are not trying to land a blow. If an understanding with the Awami League were proven, it would amount to betrayal of 2024. But through this, they are once again proving how relevant the Awami League is in Bangladesh’s politics.
For the Awami League’s leaders, the biggest challenge now is to hold the party together and to lift the morale of leaders and activists. There are three most important goals before them now. First, how Sheikh Hasina’s return to the homeland can be made successful. Second, lifting the ban on the Awami League’s activities. And third, freeing their leaders and activists from jail and settling the cases filed against them.
Why would the Awami League make an understanding with Jamaat to achieve these goals? None of these goals seems achievable with Jamaat’s help. It is foolish even to think that Jamaat would help the Awami League achieve its goals.
But BNP may perhaps think, and the intelligence agencies may perhaps have fed that thinking, that the Awami League’s aim is to create anarchy in the country and put the government in danger by weakening Tarique Rahman’s hand and force him to become lenient towards the Awami League. But even there, the possibility of an Awami League-Jamaat understanding is slim.
The Awami League needs to reach an understanding with the government, because it is through this understanding that Sheikh Hasina’s return can become possible and safe. Likewise, it is through an understanding with the government that the path for the Awami League’s return to politics can be smoothed. In reaching an understanding with the government, mediation by some third force will be needed, since BNP and the Awami League have stopped even seeing each other’s faces.
Sabir Mustafa is the former head of BBC Bangla and is currently working as a freelance journalist and podcaster. Views expressed are the author’s own.