We know that a national budget is not merely a financial plan; it is also a reflection of political commitment.
The FY2026–27 budget is being launched at a critical juncture. Global economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions, imbalances in trade, and most importantly, deep-rooted domestic structural weaknesses, has created an opportunity to look at the ensuing budget through a different lens than in previous years.
A comprehensive review suggests that most budgets fail to present a credible roadmap for nurturing national capital.
While there are scattered indications of austerity, there is little evidence of forward-looking initiatives.
Revenue-enhancing measures are present, but many appear arbitrary -- akin to “killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.”
Such an approach is unlikely to ensure a smooth economic trajectory for the nation.
The possible outlay of Tk8.73 trillion is deemed ambitious when assessed against current realities. The key question is whether this scale is realistic.
The most immediate concern lies with the revenue target. The government is planning a target of approximately Tk6.36 trillion, heavily relying on the National Board of Revenue (NBR).
Yet, the NBR has consistently fallen short year after year due to administrative inefficiencies, lack of clarity in tax policies, complex structuring, repetitive exemptions, and a lack of taxpayer trust.
Subsequent budgets have offered no meaningful roadmap for tax reform. While expanding the tax base is felt essential, there is no strong commitment to leveraging technology in tax collection, replacing incentives with enforceable compliance, or ensuring transparency in tax administration.
Meanwhile, higher tax burdens on the middle and emerging middle-class risk further eroding their purchasing power.
On the expenditure side, over Tk2.53 trillion is likely to be allocated under the Annual Development Program (ADP). Infrastructure development is undoubtedly important, but the question remains: How effective can increased allocation be in the presence of persistent implementation weaknesses? In recent years, ADP execution rates have hovered between 65% and 70%.
Many projects face delays, and transparency in project costs remains questionable. Weak oversight allows inefficiencies to persist.
In some cases, the cost of constructing a pedestrian bridge or a small rural road rivals that of building a four-storey structure in an upscale area of Dhaka.
This raises legitimate concerns (also coming from the finance minister himself) about whether development spending is truly serving public welfare.
Inflation remains the most pressing social challenge. Overall inflation has exceeded 9%, while food inflation has surpassed 12% in recent times. The impending energy crisis is likely to hold it high or even higher.
For lower-middle-income urban households and rural populations, the cost of living continues to escalate relentlessly.
Yet, the language of the budget remains abstract and number-driven, with little reflection of the lived realities of citizens.
There are no bold or innovative policy interventions to control prices. Proposals such as urban rationing systems, subsidized public transport, or housing support were notably absent.
Instead, transport costs are likely to rise. Although social safety net allocations are likely to increase (with some good news on family card and farmers card), they remain insignificant on a per capita basis. Questions of quality and governance of these allocations remain unaddressed.
Investment and employment -- the true engines of economic dynamism -- also receive optimistic but insufficient attention.
While the budget mentions tax incentives, easier bank loans, and a single-window system to attract private investment, it fails to address the real barriers investors face: Land allocation complexities, bureaucratic hurdles, political uncertainty, and liquidity challenges in the financial sector.
Increased government borrowing from banks may crowd out private entrepreneurs, particularly SMEs, thereby affecting employment generation.
The same concerns apply to foreign investment. Although export-oriented sectors such as garments, leather, and IT receive tax benefits, persistent challenges -- dollar shortages, LC constraints, and difficulties in reinvesting export earnings -- continue to discourage investors.
Also to note is the banking sector. At a time when non-performing loans have reached about Tk6 trillion, concerns over bank mergers are mounting, and issues of favouritism and corruption in loan disbursement frequently surface in the media, the absence of substantive reform proposals is disappointing.
While capital shortfalls, lack of central bank transparency, and governance weaknesses are implicitly acknowledged, no concrete solutions are offered.
Yet, a robust banking system is essential for ensuring liquidity and maintaining optimum interest rates across the economy.
External sector vulnerabilities also persist. Export earnings remain subdued and rather sluggish in recent months, and although foreign exchange reserves have improved, they still hover below $30 billion.
Remittances -- a key driver of economic stability and an improved trajectory in recent months -- are yet to reach their full potential due to structural weaknesses in incentives and the continued prevalence of informal channels. The crisis in the Middle East may also impact our overseas blue-collar employment significantly.
While remittance inflows have increased following crackdowns on irregularities within certain Islamic banks, there is no comprehensive strategy to sustain and expand inflows through formal channels.
Encouraging expatriates to remit through banking systems requires more than cash incentives -- it demands robust digital payment infrastructure, simplified transfer mechanisms, and stronger enforcement against informal channels.
This raises a fundamental question: How will an ambitious budget be implemented?
Economic planning succeeds only when it aligns with ground realities. Currently, the economy is burdened by structural challenges -- rising dependence on domestic borrowing, contraction in private sector credit, persistent inflationary pressures, and a weak social safety net.
At this critical juncture, the budget could have served as a transformative document -- one that signals administrative reform, policy execution, and restoration of public trust.
Like its predecessors, it should not be a compilation of numbers and promises that lacks a clear blueprint for structural change.
It should not be loud promises, while implementation remains secondary.
What Bangladesh needs now is a coordinated and inclusive economic strategy grounded in data, realism, and public expectations -- one that prioritizes private sector growth and national capital formation.
Transparency in tax administration, efficiency in project implementation, discipline in the banking sector, export-oriented policy support, and employment-driven incentives must work in tandem.
If poverty is to be tackled decisively, there is no alternative to boosting investment and employment. And that requires lowering tax rates while expanding the tax net.
Achieving this will demand courage, innovation in implementation, and strong political governance-along with constructive engagement with development partners.
Mamun Rashid is an economic analyst and Chairman at Financial Excellence Ltd.