My entire career has been on trying to solve the deeply entrenched issues of poverty. What I learned over the years is that what I fight to solve is also what perpetuates the problem. The more you itch, the worse it gets. The more we use the terms poverty and poor, the stickier they become.
If wealth increases, poverty should go down. However, the correlation is not linear as we know. Economies can grow because of wealth accumulated by the top few of the population -- leaving behind the rest of the population. We call it income inequality. We decrease the rate of income poverty but then we see an increase in food insecurity.
The Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2022 estimated extreme poverty rate at 5.6%; for comparison it was 12.9% in 2016. The data is contested though and independent surveys put the rate much higher. While the extreme poverty rate has declined, we are observing a higher rate of food insecurity. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) estimates that food insecurity has increased, rising from 38.08% in 2022 to 46.3% in 2024.
We increase the rate of employment, but then we find gender disparity. The issues are endless. My close friends say, it’s a business for us economists. But honestly, this is how the world has been. I believe one Donald Trump is enough to show you the paradoxical world we live in.
Today however, I want to share insights that I gained over the years on the common thread that binds the poorer economies. From the Middle East and North Africa to West Africa to Central Asia to South-Asia and the Pacific, wherever I worked, I found some common issues among the poorer economies. But before I go to the hardcore economics, let me share some lighter insights.
Last year, right after the Monsoon Revolution in Bangladesh, I traveled to Tanzania. We were designing a program on the refugee settlements in Tabora and Katavi Regions. My team members included professionals from Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya. We were on a long road trip to a remote location when my colleagues suddenly shifted the talk to the revolution in Bangladesh. They wanted to know how our Gen Z succeeded in ousting a mighty prime minister.
But then they shifted to a tussle between them. The Tanzanian teased the Ugandan that their Gen Z could do nothing with their old men. For reference, Ugandan President Yuweri Museveni came to power in 1986. The Ugandan joked that Tanzania will soon be on track. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan came to power in 2021. She was not elected. She was sworn in after her predecessor Magufuli died.
While Suluhu is lauded for being more democratically inclined, there is increasing unrest. Opposition activists are being arrested. After Tanzania, I briefly went back to Dhaka and then traveled to Nigeria where I spend some time every year. The country is not doing well. In a bid to curb vote-buying, prior to the 2023 election, the government printed new notes. It was also in response to shortage of Naira cash. Naira slumped 23% to N600 per dollar on June 14, 2023 and then to N853 per dollar on July 19,2023. Currently, it is N1530 per dollar. My colleagues insist that I should not use my international credit cards either because of the rising incidents of scams. I am left scavenging from my colleague’s cards. Meanwhile, on the roads in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, cars line up in miles for oil while the office remains out of electricity most of the time. My beloved second home is not doing well.
Last week, as I was coming back from yet another trip from Nigeria, I wondered, what binds our countries. Here I will take the cue from a work that I was doing for West Bank, Palestine early this year. While I reviewed hundreds of pages of my research findings, I was startled to see a pattern emerging that is eerily similar across most countries that I worked in.
First, we have poor data. There is no dearth of data. But nobody believes the data. It's poor in quality either by design or by deliberation from the regimes. Lack of good quality data means that the programmatic decisions are often wrong.
Second, there is extremely poor coordination between government departments. Everyone is a king. All departments work in silos.
Third, the private sector is “evil.” Collaboration with the private sector is seen as ill motivated and rent seeking.
Fourth, in relation to this, NGOs are seen as “saviours.” Essential services have to be subsidized and delivered by NGOs. Government jobs are more coveted and then followed by NGO jobs. Private sector jobs are good as long as it is in finance and in MNCs. My suits land me in the category of finance but not in development. I love to wear the hat and the suits nevertheless.
Fifth, and the elephant in the room is the protracted crisis. There is no stability. Elections happen but then they are farcical. Economic policies are never continued by successive governments. Policies are dictated by the oligarchs. Regional ties are mostly broken and dysfunctional (East Africa appears to be breaking out of the cycle with new economic corridors). With the protracted crises comes a series of behavioural traits of the mass that are common to the poor economies.
People talk and everyone has an opinion about every issue. Everyone is an expert. But there is something even more interesting. There is a strong inclination towards finding a father figure or a national idol. There has to be an idol to look up to. An idol that is the source of inspiration like the oracle.
However, the country always remains divided as to who the idol is. Everyone debates. Nobody agrees. The fight continues. Policies discontinue. Governance fails. The country fails.
And, amidst the crisis, a section of the people says: “I told you so!”
Md Rubaiyath Sarwar is Managing Director, Innovision Consulting.