Jatiyo party chairman GM Quader has been loudly opposing the interim government as of late. In fact, he was the first politician to have criticized Chief Adviser Yunus on a public platform. According to him, Yunus is highly unpopular and must hold an election immediately. This piece opines how Quader might have reached this point of making audacious remarks and what he targets to achieve.
Hasina and Delhi’s opposition
During the last election, the Jatiyo Party chairman was highly criticized for turning around his statement on non-participation. Had the Jatiyo Party not participated, the AL could have been well-branded as an autocrat. But truth be told, Jatiyo Party's high command (against the grassroots' will) had acted selfishly, as has become a habit of the party. It won only 11 constituencies (through an arrangement) where AL candidates refrained from running.
In the 2018 general election, upon a coalition, the Jatiyo Party received 26 seats, all of which were uncontested by the Awami League.
In 2014, when the BNP and its allies had boycotted the election, the Jatiyo Party participated independently and won 33 seats. The AL, the only other national party taking part, hadn’t run any candidates in any of those seats.
In 2008, the Jatiyo Party went into coalition with the AL. They placed 49 candidates out of 300 and only won the 29 seats that the AL candidates did not contest. Notably, Jatiyo Party candidates had lost their deposits in the remaining 20 seats.
Since the July Revolution, Quader’s constant explanations of how he was threatened and forcefully made to join the polls and come to terms with the oppressive regime seemed nothing but a cry in the wilderness. A politician of the stature to become a party chairman should have enough courage, boldness, and principles not to bend to pressure.
On the other hand, India has always vouched for the Awami League, which was believed to be friendlier to minorities and a party that promoted secularism, as opposed to their most prominent opponent, the BNP, which has been in a long-lasting coalition with far-right parties.
In the past years, it was understandably in India's interest for Bangladesh to have an opposition party in place with a solid outlook that would seem legitimate and acceptable in the absence of BNP and others. Therefore, since 2014, Jatiyo Party has undoubtedly been India's patsy of choice for general elections.
July and Jatiyo Party’s identity crisis
Since the July Revolution, the Jatiyo Party has made concerted efforts to rehabilitate itself by convincing the nation of two of their positions -- their role during the movement and their former role as not of domestic opposition.
Their minimal involvement in July went unnoticed because, as the third most significant political force in Bangladesh, the party leaders were still in the parliament and a clear command from Quader to participate in the resistance against the wrong never came. Moreover, his explanation of how he spoke in favour of the students in the parliament has no material weight because the parliament in recent years had almost no legitimacy in the eyes of the ordinary people.
We may, unfortunately, witness AL leaders in the parliament in Jatiyo Party's disguise
The stance against Yunus
Jatiyo Party was not invited for dialogue on foreseeable state restructuring in the chief adviser’s office. On the other hand, prominent student coordinators of July have constantly raised their concerns regarding the party’s role as an abettor of the fallen “fascist” AL regime. Hence, having been unable to establish a pro-July narrative on the part of the party, it looks as though Quader has now decided to proceed with a full-on move against the interim government.
In this process, he has made three comments that are worth noting -- he said that his party was not being allowed to operate and that he and his party members are being harassed with false cases filed against them; he said that the interim government stakeholders are "neo-fascists" and that an election without the consent, will or participation of 50% of the population (AL and Jatiyo party combined) would not be legitimate; and, he recently asked Prof Yunus to step aside and make a transition towards democracy.
Addressing Quader’s remarks
I wish to inform the readers that not one case against him was made at the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT). The ICT Act 1973 explicitly mentions in Section 2(h) that the failure to prevent the commission of crimes against humanity is also a punishable offence -- bear in mind Jatiyo Party was the official opposition in July. Quader and his colleagues from the party did not even care to resign from the parliament in the face of the gruesome murder of thousands of students.
So, lucky for him, these so-called current cases against him realistically have no merit -- that is probably why he now dares to stand up against the ban of AL.
At their worst, AL received 41% of votes in 2001. However, the scenario is no longer the same. A recent survey by Innovision Consulting Private Limited shows that the AL is now likely to receive only around 14% of votes. The survey also portrays Jatiyo party with a vote bank of 1%. Of course, some of the survey's indicators remain questionable.
Unsure of whether AL would be banned or be able to participate in the upcoming polls properly, I am certain that Quader has planned to turn the Awami League’s votes towards the Jatiyo Party. Such a move would undoubtedly be a cunning one, considering that the hardcore AL voters would have no other place at the ballots -- which makes me fearful of the fact that Quader might have a fair chance of becoming the opposition leader once again (or at least that is what he aims to be).
Suppose the Jatiyo Party makes it to parliament as the main opposition. In that case, it will be the first time in 18 years that they will genuinely participate and not come through any negotiation. We may, unfortunately, witness AL leaders in the parliament in Jatiyo Party's disguise.
Advocate Saquib Rahman is an academic lawyer, columnist and political analyst. He is the Editor of Progress Magazine and teaches at North South University.