Bangladesh is home to more people than in Russia, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark put together. By 2050 it will need to feed, educate, and nurture 220 million people living within an area smaller than England and Wales.
Whilst Bangladesh’s economy has grown despite the chronic dysfunction and misrule that characterises its governance, this can only become more difficult in a world being hit by climate change and threats of resource and tariff wars.
Unfortunately, the drama provided by national politics makes it all too easy not to see the wood for the trees. The six-month anniversary of the interim government sees even some of its well-wishers’ expressing concern about missteps, particularly in the wake of concerted attacks to finish off the demolition of Sheikh Mujib’s home begun by August’s arson attacks on the Bangabandhu Memorial Museum in Dhanmondi 32.
Although the news offers much to discuss, the real big picture -- and perennial question -- is whether Bangladesh’s politics and governance can improve sufficiently enough to serve the needs of the people of 2050. No, alas, seems to my mind the only credible available answer.
Hopefully the coming decades will prove me wrong. But for now, consider the following, which I spotted late last year in a London library while flicking through US foreign policy magazines to see if they had increased mentions of Bangladesh since last July. (Spoiler alert, not a lot.)
Amid a long essay on ageing global demographics, I glimpsed political economist Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) include one paragraph mentioning Bangladesh. This was far from flattering. Referring to those who “will form the backbone of Bangladesh’s labour force in 2050,” he wrote: “Standardized tests show that five in six fail to meet even the very lowest international skill standards deemed necessary for participation in a modern economy: The overwhelming majority of this rising cohort cannot ‘read and answer basic questions’ or ‘add, subtract, and round whole numbers and decimals’.”
Now, I have little faith in standardised written tests; as anyone who has seen how much rural Bangladesh has changed since independence can attest, the bedrock of GDP growth rests on the resourcefulness of farmers who have continually increased yields -- without necessarily sitting lots of tests. I trust even less the free market dogma of the AEI.
But Eberstadt’s conclusion is impossible to refute when low investment in education and workplace skills keeps around 140 countries more productive and above Bangladesh in global per capita GDP rankings, even though by size alone it is about a hundred places higher. Despite hundreds of thousands of unemployed graduates -- a factor which played a part in making Gen Z the face of the Monsoon Revolution -- few eyebrows are raised when Bangladeshi employers complain about poor skills and use overseas candidates to fill well-paid posts. (Unless it is to splutter indignantly about foreigners sending remittances.)
Bangladesh’s own remittances are its most important net source of foreign currency supplementing $50 billion worth of exports (mainly RMG). According to the International Organization for Migration, most of the millions of Bangladeshi workers who regularly send remittances mirror the low-wage low-investment model dominant at home and earn less per head than those from countries like Pakistan and the Philippines.
Contrast Bangladesh with Vietnam, whose 100 million people export a wide range of goods worth over $370bn a year, a figure approaching half of all of India’s total exports. Enthusiasm for bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and a societal commitment to investing in raising education and skill standards are key differences behind its success.
By shining a light on the secret detention and torture houses of Aynaghar and supporting an independent OHCHR investigation into the human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings of last year, the interim government has performed a valuable service. Younger generations need its reforms to include helping the nation evolve beyond the outdated low-investment low-wage paradigm with which Bangladesh’s bureaucratic and political classes have hitherto been complacently content. Does it have the vision and bandwidth to do this as it faces the unenviable conundrum of holding the Awami League to account without making it centre of attention?
Missed opportunities like not having more women or some garment workers/trade unionists among the cabinet’s advisers has been a weakness of the interim government’s Bangladesh 2.0 project. Mixed and contradictory messaging, like making Gonobhaban a museum whilst being at best equivocal about the attacks at Dhanmondi 32, are another.
I travelled to Bangladesh in February 2024 and again after the revolution in October. Aside from the murals and slogans on walls, everyday life seemed similar. Many of the concerns I heard -- about the cost of living, traffic, local crime spots, and pollution -- were familiar from earlier in the year. As for the police, well they were at least back in numbers for the one day I attended the Mirpur test match, easily outnumbering the sparse crowd.
It is not possible to be as sanguine about attacks on women or minority groups. But they used to happen before the last six months. Sadly, bigots, misogynists, land grabbers, and those who spread misinformation are not new to the landscape and ever ready to emerge.
Latterly, “who did what in 1971” has been joined by a clamour to change the 1972 Constitution. As one who thinks Article 70 was wrong from the start this has some merits.
Yet it is also no guarantee of salvation. Front Line Defenders, a Dublin-based human rights NGO, has expressed concern about how quickly December’s draft Cyber Security guidance resurrected many of the features (eg; vague terms/non-bailable offences) of the Cyber Security Act (also known as the Digital Security Act prior) repealed last November, which are inconsistent with the ICCPR and the OHCHR’s technical note in 2022. This episode illustrates the tendency of dysfunctional systems to re-assert themselves. It bodes poorly for hopes the country can truly move on from the patterns of the past which continue to institutionalize inequality, corruption, and exploitation.
Thanks to my parents I have lived most of my life beyond the borders of my birth and am in no position to question the 55% of Bangladeshis aged 18 to 35 who a recent British Council report suggests are planning to move abroad. If this figure is correct though, this too may hinder hopes for the future. Given all of the above however, can you blame them?
Niaz Alam is London Bureau Chief, Dhaka Tribune.