Thanks to her distorted understanding of diplomatic nuances and realpolitik, former prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, now in exile in India, seems to cling to the delusional hope that external forces, perhaps under the influence of Donald Trump, will restore her to power for reasons that appear fundamentally irrational.
It’s no surprise that she congratulated Trump on his election victory, mistakenly referring to herself as the prime minister of Bangladesh. The US president-elect must have been quite confused, especially after receiving another congratulatory note from Muhammad Yunus, who has been the chief advisor of Bangladesh since August 8.
Hasina's desperate and misguided attempt to present herself as the prime minister has ironically proven to be extremely damaging and counterproductive to its unlikely goal -- her reinstatement with US intervention during Trump's presidency. Furthermore, it undermines the reputation she has built as a leader. It is clear that the president-elect has neither the desire nor the legal authority to reinstate an overthrown dictator like Hasina when he assumes office in January 2025.
One might perceive former dictator Hasina's actions as immature and unconventional; however, these actions could also be interpreted as a strategic attempt to boost morale among her disenfranchised and frustrated supporters in Bangladesh. Many of these individuals are currently living in exile, hiding, or incarcerated. They may retain hope that Trump will take steps to alter the political landscape in favour of Hasina and her followers.
Corrupt, anti-social elements who once lived like lords and royalty -- especially those who are led to believe in the delusional demagoguery of the fallen matriarch -- may cling to any absurd idea out of desperation to regain their lost glory and power. It is, therefore, pointless to debate Hasina's misguided congratulatory message to Trump, in which she refers to herself as the prime minister.
Hasina appears largely unconcerned about the prospect of being "re-installed to power" by Washington, a reality she knows is unattainable. However, she understands the propaganda value of congratulating Trump and using a false title to bolster her image among her supporters and allies, particularly in India. Her persistent efforts and the propaganda against the Yunus administration as illegitimate have possibly yielded some results.
Her loyal supporters, along with the Modi administration in India, are eager to see Hasina return to power. The former group seeks to regain their unjustly acquired benefits and opportunities to exploit Bangladesh, which could amount to billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the Modi administration aims to advance its hegemonic agenda by exerting control over Bangladesh's internal and external affairs, including its political and development initiatives.
Since overthrowing the Hasina regime, Bangladesh has emerged as a contested territory and a strategic battleground for India. Historically, Bangladesh has been an essential region for India, serving its economic and geopolitical interests. It represents a significant market for Indian goods and services and is a crucial link between India's mainland in the west and its distant northeastern states.
The removal of the overly compliant Hasina regime has generated significant frustration for New Delhi, which intends to replace the less favourable Yunus administration with a government that aligns more closely with Indian interests. Ideally, this replacement would involve Hasina or another representative from the discredited Awami League party.
India has been actively engaged in a campaign to raise false alarms about the Yunus administration since it took over from Hasina in August. New Delhi has made significant efforts to depict Bangladesh under Yunus as a haven for Islamist militants and anti-Hindu communal forces, which it claims pose a serious security threat to both India and the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh.
The Modi administration has positioned itself as the guardian and protector of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh and elsewhere in the subcontinent. The ongoing criticism directed at the Yunus Administration has been echoed in the co-ordinated fabrications by Indian government agencies and media. This campaign succeeded to the extent that Indians and pro-Indian factions in Bangladesh managed to compel Donald Trump to make unfounded allegations against the current Bangladesh government, accusing it of promoting anti-Hindu attacks and supporting Islamist extremists. These allegations surfaced just days before the presidential elections in the United States.
Supporters of Hasina, who have been discredited and marginalized, are not remaining passive. Recently, they have shown their disdain for the current government and expressed a desire to restore Hasina to power, although this seems unlikely to occur. They have been holding sporadic and minor rallies across the country, but have failed to gather sufficient resources and public support to present a serious challenge to the current administration.
However, the recent rallies and violent attacks on Muslims and members of the law enforcement agencies including the police and army at Chattogram by ISKCON -- a Hindu religious outfit, the International Society for Krishna Consciousness, with branches throughout the world -- have raised many questions about their motives and promoters, both domestically and internationally.
It is noteworthy that days before the violent attacks on Muslims and law-enforcers by ISKCON members at Chattogram -- where stones, broken bottles, and acid bottles were used as projectiles -- the Hindu outfit raised its saffron triangular flag (which is strikingly similar to the RSS flag) on top of the national flag of Bangladesh at Chattogram.
One believes it was a sheer act of provocation to spearhead communal rioting in the country which would give India the excuse to intervene physically into Bangladesh as the Hindu nationalist Modi government has already promised to protect Hindu minorities across the borders with Bangladesh and some other countries in the subcontinent.
As ISKCON provocations have been ominous, so has been the massive attendance at ISKCON rallies at Chattogram by pro-Awami League people (mostly Muslims). Unless the Yunus Administration takes stern and decisive action against the Awami League and its allies, especially ISKCON and the divisive Hindu-Buddhist-Christian Unity Front (both promoted by India), it is likely that the country will remain unsettling and divisive with the possibility of becoming a civil war-torn country similar to Syria, Somalia, Sudan, or Libya.
Taj Hashmi, PhD, FRAS, is a retired professor of security studies at the APCSS, US and is a historian-cum-cultural anthropologist and security analyst. He can be reached at tajhashmi@gmail.com.