Sheikh Hasina left the nation after resigning on August 5; the largest student protest to date, which claimed the lives of hundreds of innocents, toppled the autocratic government within a month. There are numerous reasons to celebrate this historic student win, but Bangladesh's political future is still unclear.
The political culture of Bangladesh is confined to two major parties, the Bangladesh Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Other influential political entities such as Jatiya Party, Jamaat-E-Islami Bangladesh, Workers Party, Liberal Democratic Party and many more have joined the two major parties as their allies, following the last free and fair election of Bangladesh on 2008, where Awami League along with its 13 ally parties won the election over 4-party alliance by BNP.
Nevertheless, in 2024, the scenario is different. The Awami League, which led us to freedom in 1971 and has ruled the country for the past one and a half decades, is facing a deep existential crisis as Sheikh Hasina flees. Most of the ministers, members of parliament, and leaders have fled, while the rest are being arrested. At this moment, the chances for the Awami League to participate in the next national election are very low, let alone making a comeback. Had Sheikh Hasina simply resigned, the party might have had a chance to proceed with the election. However, following her escape, the Awami League is now effectively crippled.
On the other hand, the BNP is fragmented, having consecutively failed to challenge the authority of the Sheikh Hasina regime for the last 15 years, and they were unprepared for the sudden fall. Consequently, this party is also not well-prepared to take the lead on such short notice. If the BNP participates in the next election, they might secure the majority of seats in parliament due to the absence of strong opposition. However, the current BNP does not seem capable of nominating 300 politically-sound parliamentary candidates as of now. So, the vacuum remains.
Historically, protests of this magnitude in Bangladesh were not merely led by individuals or students; strong political involvement was always necessary. Following the major shifts in the last half-century, both Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Major Ziaur Rahman were assassinated by military forces. However, only the Ershad government was toppled by a popular uprising, jointly led by the two major political parties of that time, the Bangladesh Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
For the first time, a revolution led solely by students, with no significant political backing, has brought an end to a 16-year autocracy. This unprecedented event cannot be ignored. The students have instilled hope in the nation, demonstrating that they have the power to bring about change. From coast to coast, people are now rejecting the regimes of both mainstream political parties, expressing a collective sentiment that they have had enough and desperately looking for a change.
Thus, a significant opportunity now exists for new political parties led by youthful representatives.
Imagining a government in Bangladesh without Awami League or BNP once seemed like a utopian dream, but the situation is not the same anymore. At present, a strong political party consisting of youth and civil society is what everyone is looking for. Even though establishing a party capable of winning an election seems challenging at the moment, the existing vacuum created by the absence of a strong opposition still presents an opportunity for the youth to step in and fill the gap.
With the interim government now in place and functioning, there is time for new representation to establish itself and develop policies that address the needs of the people. The majority of Bangladeshi voters are under 30 years old and did not actively participate in recent elections due to a lack of fairness. Nonetheless, a dynamic youth movement could engage this demographic and encourage them to vote, especially with the expectation of a free and fair election under the interim government.
A S M Kamrul Islam actively joined the quota reformation protest in 2018 as a student of Dhaka University. He is currently a lecturer at Green University of Bangladesh.