The electorate never gets it wrong; politicians do. Emmanuel Macron will have realized as much following his gut driven snap polls that has left his party wallowing in uncertainty. By next week France will have decided its majority direction whether the far right or a strange cobble of leftists and centrists will form a government, or a hung parliament is in place -- whereby little gets done in terms of clear-headed policies.
Democracy is all about the majority except that there’s an increasing trend to razor thin margins between majority and minority.
Macron came literally out of nowhere seven years ago to become France’s president. Everything about him was appealing to the French. Suave, dapper, clean, with little baggage; he said the right things supporting his ideals and vision and made the appropriate gestures to fire the imagination of better days.
It was his popularity that led his party to power in parliamentary elections at a time when one of the largest economies of Europe was still in high gear. It was also a time when businesses and trade unions were disgusted with the more-of-the-same policies pursued by his predecessor Francois Hollande.
Three years down the line came the Covid disaster and then the war in Ukraine. Pushed by the United States and the NATO concept, France was forced, as with most of Europe, to fork out cash and kind to support Ukraine. The money and support had to come from somewhere and the coffers dried up for the impacted locals. Easy going migration policies have never been popular there, but were accepted with the typical shrug of the shoulder. Added to that was Macron’s grandiose ambitions of becoming Europe’s leader with a vision different from the economic theory that led to the European Union being formed to begin with.
That which matters most above all is the idealism, vision, and craftiness of the individual
Idealism comes with risks and opportunities. Macron perhaps ignored the former, allowed his passion to take precedence over ground realities back home from farmers protesting lack of protection over their produce and prices and the searing divide caused by his new pension law that hurt sentiments, not just financially, but also culturally. His record of tackling inflation and unemployment hasn’t been something to write home about, bringing further to the fore immigration’s impact added to the inability of integration of migrants with French culture.
Western democracies aren’t vibrant in terms of polling turnout, but France has broken records in a 70-plus percentage this time round. No single party reached the 50% threshold whereby a second round of voting would be unnecessary. The saddest part of democracy is the “horse trading” phase whereby politicians must reach deals with each other for the “greater good” of their targets.
The battle lines are clear. The hurriedly cobbled Left Union will be wooed by both the star of the moment Marine le Pen and Macron, so much so that perfectly qualified candidates must not only stand aside in the second round but must urge supporters to vote for candidates against whom they were campaigning just a few days ago. Analysts and commentators will bring up internationalism, world economy and much more in trying to predict, and almost influence, next week’s hustings. The hapless voter is now called on to make another choice-whether they support or oppose an “ism” versus what was close to their hearts -- a better life.
Marie le Pen comes from extremist stock. Her father Jean Marie Pen was infamous in many ways, not least for describing the Holocaust as a “historic detail.” His daughter has been more savvy. From detoxifying her party by name change and expelling radical elements including her father, she is a firm advocate of dismantling the IMF, the WTO and domestic policies that find resonance with the general public. Instead of leaving the EU she favours a referendum to decide. These all play well. That her party is unproven in governance barring local elected positions, works against her. For now the appeal of change, the lack of incremental baggage has found sympathy with the electorate.
That which matters most above all is the idealism, vision, and craftiness of the individual.
Mahmudur Rahman is a writer, columnist, broadcaster, and communications specialist.