As Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from the group of least developed countries (LDCs) in 2026, the graduation is likely to bring about qualitative changes in Bangladesh’s diplomatic relations with the rest of the world, especially in terms of its economic ties with the developed states.
The geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region is already heated, and great and regional powers are currently engaged in a strategic competition for influence in the region. Moreover, with a full-scale civil war raging in Myanmar and unrest brewing in Northeast India, Bangladesh’s immediate neighbourhood is currently on fire. And to add further fuel to the turmoil, an economic crisis looms over Bangladesh, as the country is suffering from fluctuating forex reserves and high inflation.
Taking into account the current geopolitical realities and Bangladesh’s national interests, the government needs to carefully determine their foreign policy objectives and priorities.
Repairing relations with the US
Under the administration of US President Joseph Biden, US-Bangladeshi ties were somewhat strained, owing to a host of factors, including the imposition of US sanctions on RAB, the recurring US concerns about the fairness of Bangladesh’s election and labour rights, and the announcement of the US intent to sanction the persons who would seek to “undermine” democratic elections in the country.
However, after the election, the US Department of State vowed to work with the new Bangladeshi government, and in a letter to the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, President Biden expressed his desire to work with Bangladesh, particularly on economic and Indo-Pacific affairs. This signals that the US is unlikely to undertake harsh politico-economic measures against Bangladesh in the near future and the US reaction to Bangladesh’s internal political situation will remain restricted to sanctions on particular individuals.
Geopolitical and economic realities stipulate that Dhaka and Washington should preserve their traditionally cordial and mutually beneficial multifaceted partnership. Bangladesh holds strategic significance for the US in the context of the intensification of geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific region. On the other hand, the US is the largest market for Bangladeshi readymade garment (RMG) products and the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.
Hence, Dhaka should minimize and compartmentalize the frictions it has with Washington, and instead work towards expanding its partnership with the US.
Deepening ties with the EU
At present, Bangladesh maintains a strong and stable partnership with the EU. Yet, there are some concerns about the future of this. The EU has expressed its concerns over Bangladesh’s human rights situation and labour laws, and after Bangladesh’s graduation from the LDC may subject the country’s exports to new tariff barriers in the EU.
Under these circumstances, Dhaka should conclude the “Partnership Cooperation Agreement” with the EU and undertake appropriate politico-diplomatic steps to ensure that Bangladesh is accorded the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) Plus facilities in the EU after 2026. In addition, Dhaka should enhance its security partnership with Brussels, particularly in the sphere of acquisition of military hardware.
Navigating the Sino-Indian strategic competition
Bangladesh shares comprehensive political, diplomatic, economic, military, and cultural relations with both China and India. Tellingly, China and India are respectively the largest and the second largest trade partners of Bangladesh. Meanwhile the two are at loggerheads with each other over exerting their influence in South Asia. In the current context, New Delhi is likely to expect Dhaka to align with its “Look East” and “Act East” policies, while Beijing is expected to enhance its development finance relations with Dhaka under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Hence, Bangladesh should pursue a foreign policy vis-à-vis the Sino–Indian rivalry that aims at maintaining a healthy and delicate balance between Chinese and Indian interests in the country. At the same time, Dhaka should strive to boost its strategic partnerships with both Beijing and New Delhi. Dhaka should also undertake necessary politico-diplomatic measures to resolve its existing disputes with India, while expanding cooperation across all sectors.
Manoeuvring the Myanmar conundrum and the Rohingya crisis
Bangladesh has deep ties with neighbouring Myanmar, but political instability in its southeastern neighbour has profoundly affected Bangladesh’s security, economy and politics. Since 2017, Bangladesh has hosted more than 1.3 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar.
At present, Myanmar is in a state of civil war, and since the start of Operation 1027 in October 2023, the situation has only worsened. Bangladesh faces gunfire, mortar attacks, and even gunship strikes from Myanmar territory, and recently, more than 300 Myanmar troops and security personnel have illegally intruded into Bangladeshi territory.
Bangladesh has consistently sought the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar, without success. Now, the intensification of the war in Myanmar has opened the possibility of a new influx of refugees to Bangladesh, which would cause an unmitigated disaster for the country. Hence, measures to secure borders and prevent the war in Myanmar from spilling into the country is necessary. Dhaka must continue its diplomatic initiatives with Nay Pyi Taw and the international community to ensure the repatriation of Rohingya refugees.
Strengthening economic and energy diplomacy
Bangladesh should prioritize economic development while formulating its foreign policy. Amid the looming economic crisis, Bangladeshi policy-makers should put special emphasis on economic and energy diplomacy.
On the economic front, the Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) should undertake necessary steps to encourage foreign investors, lenders, and donors to work with Bangladesh. Also, numerous states across the world, ranging from Mongolia to Tanzania, are willing to import Bangladeshi skilled and semi-skilled workers, and the MoFA should accordingly develop economic ties with these states to increase the flow of remittances to the country.
Moreover, some Bangladeshi entrepreneurs are achieving sound commercial successes abroad, exemplified by the success of Bangladeshi Internet providers in South Sudan. The MoFA should assist Bangladeshi entrepreneurs in such ventures.
On the energy front, Bangladesh should conduct more government-to-government (G2G) agreements with energy-exporting countries to ensure its long-term energy and economic security. Dhaka should expand scientific and technological cooperation with advanced states to obtain technology for building refineries, power plants, and other energy installations.
Cultivating a positive national image
Bangladesh has upheld a positive image for itself before the international community through its strong commitment to international peace and security, its non-aligned foreign policy, its significant contribution to United Nations (UN) peacekeeping, and its support for oppressed peoples worldwide, including in Gaza. In future, Dhaka could perhaps make its voice heard in the global arena by energetically promoting international peace and security.
In order to build a secure, peaceful, and prosperous future for the nation, Bangladesh should pursue a well-defined, calculated, and balanced foreign policy for the next five years.
Md Himel Rahman is a post-graduate student of Security Studies at the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and a freelance analyst on international and strategic affairs.