“Khela hobe” (or game on) is a popular political refrain. Mamata Banerjee there and a prominent Bangladeshi minister here have used this recently. I would suggest that the problem we have is that we are too engrossed with the wrong zero-sum game.
For the last decade, the political discourse has not offered alternative economic/strategic options to the people. Did farmers or garment workers believe that another political party would work for their interests more than the current one? Clearly not.
Many might have (and we did not get the opportunity to see) gone the "other way" but for other reasons: A chance to exercise power for a day, or a chance to make a protest vote against broad injustice (systemic rather than party specific).
The middle and prosperous classes do not grasp this. They self-identify as a "civil society" and, with entrepreneurs, merely crave for a drop in corruption, more freedom of expression, and greater personal security. All of this is lacking currently -- necessary but not sufficient for the majority.
So, in this political environment, why should millions join a movement when there is little in it for them? Why take the risk when the result could only be the other rich guy in London?
What has been in play is a clash of symbols. As the political paraphernalia lies scattered across the land, should we attempt to make them whole or do we try something different in a changing regional context?
This is not a classic Left versus Right scenario. Not at all. The distinction in India in May will be between Big Business-led BJP versus a disparate opposition based on Big Business with some welfarism. The latter sounds better but isn’t much more than the Victorian poorhouse, keeping people alive without overhauling the system. So, even if Nitish, Rahul, or Mamata take over, Adani may be cut down to size but another will take his place.
India will continue to have jobless growth, continue its sluggish manufacturing north of the Deccan. Eight hundred million will continue to depend on government handouts. Castes and ethnic "tribes" will fight over the few public posts on offer. Chaos will continue.
The next China will be … China
China has been undergoing its own transformative drama. They are now moving up to, what they term "high quality development" and real digitalization. Relevant to Bangladesh, China suffers from corruption and gross inequality. This week, President Xi Jinping warned of a protracted fight on corruption. While it has a long way to go, inequality has been decreasing for a decade in China. How? Not through welfarism but through urbanization.
The latter is a planned shift from village to cities, many newly built. No one can recreate the "hukou" in South Asia, with its different historical context. In any case, the hukou system is being gradually displaced, allowing migrants sufficient rights to remain in the cities. The point is that strategic thinking was and is necessary to ensure a transition. Making plans, and implementing them (unlike here) is mandatory.
Despite the previous three decades of breakneck job-rich industrialization, the government recognized that extreme poverty still remained. The left-behind. They announced its eradication a couple of years ago, following a specific campaign lasting the best part of a decade. China is beset with tough problems currently but don’t bet against them.
Dhaka’s options
South Asia, and Bangladesh, are far away from any of this, a generation or two. But if you want to talk about "developed country 2041" then the political debate should be about putting meat on the bone about how this is achieved. Right now, it is an aspiration based on debatable premises. Agree or not, that should be the foundation of debate up and down the country, well beyond the neo-liberal think-tank intelligentsia.
Till now, Dhaka (on all sides) has caught the disease from elite Delhi -- a statistical one that uses compound arithmetic of 7% economic growth for decades. Projections to an inevitable life of prosperity. That is a recipe for disappointment.
Now that the electoral drama is over, I repeat the need for "a hundred flowers to bloom" which I wrote about in December. Talk not about who but about what.
Today, Bangladesh is the new Japan. One party has ruled in Tokyo for 98% of the period since World War Two. Its politics revolves around factions of the same party. I am not in favour of this form of democracy. I am merely pointing out that despite the short stature of its rubber-stamp parliament, Japan stood as a giant in terms of manufacturing, technology, and broad-based exports. Whatever the personal differences and ambitions, the commonsense was for a particular form of economic development.
Crafting that is what is lacking in Bangladesh today. As only one of many steps needed, the "new government" needs to remove, reshuffle, and recruit senior ministers. The two most obvious are the two most prominent ones, though one could make a very long list. Not just new faces but new ideas.
The first key move must be to join RCEP. This does not mean Momen or his replacement collecting a new business card. It requires a strategic vision of what joining this massive market, with its supply chains, means. Last March I talked about this with people in Dhaka. Most were unaware. A signing ceremony for RCEP, BRICS, and the big one, SCO, will be meaningless. Unless there is a buy-in from Big Business, military and bureaucrats, then it will be a waste. Start the conversation.
The second move will be to negotiate hard with Delhi to decide this: How much China will India allow in Bangladesh? Dhaka has to push the envelope.
The third should be to set challenging but achievable targets. One would be to become Tamil Nadu this decade – less from Taiwan and more with mainland Chinese investment.
The fourth is a new engagement over Myanmar.
Elites and the intelligentsia seem to be unprepared or unwilling for any of this. Time to move on from the status quo.
Farid Erkizia Bakht is a political analyst.