Rumour has it that the Jatiyo Party is seeking consensus with the ruling Awami League over parliamentary seat-sharing. In fact a national daily reported that according to one Jatiyo Party co-chairman who wished anonymity, a high-profile party delegation met with ruling party representatives and demanded the latter withdraw its candidates from around 70 constituencies to pave the way for the Jatiyo Party nominees’ easy win in the January 7 polls.
Although, through a press briefing, the Jatiyo Party has denied the claim of having any discussions with the ruling party on seat-sharing, this piece opines on why there might be an “arrangement.”
Nomination submissions and the law
Since both the parties have placed their candidates in almost all the seats, nominees who are cleared by the election commission to participate in the polls are rejoicing. However, provided an agreement on seat-sharing is reached, celebrations on the part of the ruling party candidates in those seats would go in vain.
Article 16(2) of the Representation of the People’s Order, 1972 mentions, “Where more than one candidate are nominated in the same constituency by a registered political party, the chairman or secretary or a person holding the same rank of the party shall inform, by notice in writing signed by him and delivered, either by himself or by any other person authorized by him in this behalf on or before the withdrawal day, to the returning officer, about the final nomination of a candidate and the other candidate of that party shall be ceased to be a candidate.”
Hence, there is still enough time for the ruling party to feel threatened by Jatiyo Party’s last moment withdrawal from the elections, and rather sketch a plan to keep the Jatiyo Party high command content. Since otherwise, the world is likely to observe a completely non-participatory election under this regime -- the situation being the sole bargaining power of the Jatiyo Party.
How popular is the Jatiyo Party, really?
In the absence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Jatiyo Party as the third largest force is considered the next best alternative as the opposition. The ruling party befriends and provides to the MPs of the Jatiyo Party, to the extent of having had them as ministers in the cabinet as opposition.
On the other hand, neighbouring India’s fondness towards the ruling party, due to the latter’s perceived preference to uphold secularism, is no secret. Therefore, the Jatiyo Party emerging as an acceptable opposition and congratulating Bangladesh for upholding successful polls in the recent years have been Delhi’s way. However, let us take a look at the records to determine how popular the Jatiyo Party actually is.
In 2008, the Jatiyo Party went into coalition with the Awami League. They placed 49 candidates out of 300, and only won the 29 seats that were not contested by the Awami League candidates. It is notable that Jatiyo Party candidates had lost their deposits in the remaining 20 seats.
In 2014, when BNP and allies had boycotted the elections, the Jatiyo Party participated on their own and won 33 seats. The Awami League had pinned candidates in none of those seats.
It is quite obvious from the above that Jatiyo Party, although perceived to be the third largest force, displayed extremely poor support on the part of the people, even in the election of 2008, which was widely considered fair and credible.
Targeting BNP’s votes?
Because both Jatiyo Party and BNP belong to the centre-right, they have a similar vote bank. When in coalition with the ruling party, the smattering of Jatiyo Party votes benefits the ruling party, since this is the conservative bank of votes that they would otherwise not easily be able to bag.
With BNP out of the picture, the situation appears to be ideal for Jatiyo Party. Also, because of the philosophical similarity, a coalition with the BNP would mean that the whole Jatiyo Party leadership would be absorbed by the BNP. Jatiyo Party would not only be powerless and face financial struggles (being out of the parliament), but also be facing an existential crisis.
Since BNP is not joining the polls, it makes sense for the Jatiyo Party to be able to receive some of the former’s votes. The total percentage of votes cast has been disappointing in the immediate past elections and so, the support for Jatiyo Party may not be too eye-catching. I doubt if Jatiyo Party Secretary General Mujibul Chunnu’s plan to “secure the anti-Awami League votes” will noticeably bear any fruit.
GM Quader is smart to be running for the Rangpur-3 seat. The constituency is his (and his brother, founder Chairman of Jatiyo Party HM Ershad’s) ancestral home. He would most likely win there, against any Awami League candidate. But almost all of his other candidates might as well prepare to lose their deposits because the Jatiyo Party is perceived as an opportunist party with limited support from the masses.
Advocate Saquib Rahman is a political analyst and the Editor of Progress Magazine. He teaches law at North South University and is the former international affairs secretary, Jatiyo Party.