There is significant discussion over the future of the political opposition in Bangladesh, particularly with the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). Following its removal from power in 2006, the party has witnessed a decrease in its organizational strength and the party's standing was significantly impaired by the crucial mistake of boycotting the 2014 parliamentary election.
In addition, the leadership's attempt to obstruct the election by extensive arson attacks led to the devastating loss of hundreds of lives, leaving many people with lasting physical and emotional injuries. The 2018 election results exacerbated the BNP’s problems, as the incumbent Awami League obtained a substantial majority, forming the government for the third straight term.
The BNP chairperson, Begum Khaleda Zia, has been convicted in corruption trials and is struggling with physical frailty. In her absence, Tarique Rahman, the acting chairperson (who has also been convicted), has been staying in the UK since 2008, overseeing the party's operations from abroad.
In recent years, the party has strategically organized political campaigns to pressure the ruling party to step down and promote the restoration of a caretaker administration to oversee legislative elections. The party's efforts to rally political movements against the incumbent government have been hindered by its weakened organizational structure, resulting in a lack of meaningful pressure.
The main difficulty is in the party's composition.The BNP, originating in the cantonment, consists of leaders with varied political backgrounds. In contrast to the Awami League -- a well-established political organization with committed leaders and supporters -- the BNP's hybrid nature poses difficulties in fostering unwavering support.
The responsibility of BNP leadership becomes challenging as they traverse 15 years without holding power, resulting in a decline in motivation among its fans and followers. Many of the party's leaders, members, and followers have transferred their loyalty to the ruling party, intensifying these organizational difficulties. The BNP is experiencing a gap in its structure due to the internal disagreements occurring at different levels in the party. Due to all this, the BNP could not successfully mobilize its supporters and followers.
The political landscape in Bangladesh also reflects a recurring pattern, wherein the government employs various tactics to control opposition parties intermittently -- a phenomenon not uncommon in the country. This phenomenon transcends the current governing party since they faced comparable obstacles while in the opposition. However, the case of the Awami League stands apart, characterized by a resilient cadre of dedicated leaders and supporters who maintained the party's organizational strength during a prolonged 21-year period outside of state power.
The BNP's faulty political approach has resulted in unintended negative consequences for the party. Before the 2024 national parliament election, the party focused on convincing foreign friends to exert pressure on the government while disregarding the vital duty of gaining people's trust, which is the main factor in achieving electoral victory.
The excessive dependence on outside assistance has further undermined the party's strength. Relying on their international affiliations, they chose not to participate in the election, expecting their non-participation to invalidate it. They anticipated their global friends would pressure the government to participate in political discussions, meeting the party's request to reinstate the caretaker administration. Unfortunately for them, the unwavering leadership of the Prime Minister has disproved these claims.
Following the declaration of the election schedule, the BNP opted to boycott the election and publicly proclaimed their intention to resist it. As a result, they have started organizing prolonged political demonstrations such as hartals and blockades. In addition, they have employed arson assaults on vehicles as a means to induce fear among the citizens. These abhorrent assaults lead to fatalities and inflict long-lasting physical and mental damage on persons. Furthermore, these detrimental political efforts have little to no significant effect on the government or the broader population group.
Another shortcoming is the party's failure to prevent all its leaders from participating in the election. Several influential party leaders have formed alliances with different political parties and have chosen to engage in the electoral process. One of the party's vice-chairpersons is running in the election as a ruling party candidate. This event significantly impacted the party's status as a serious political opposition force.
A crucial question arises: What does the future hold for the BNP in the long term? Should the party fail to oppose in the election effectively, it may become challenging for them to prevent the governing party from securing another term in office and become even more difficult to maintain their position as the leading political opposition in Bangladesh.
Given the party's existing weaknesses, a prolonged absence from power would further diminish its standing. This can erode the faith of its supporters and followers, presenting an increasing obstacle for the BNP to maintain its position as the predominant political opposition force in the country.
Meanwhile, several political parties have emerged inside the political sphere. Those associated with the BNP could consider forming alliances with these political parties to preserve their power in the political realm.
The lack of cohesive party leadership might make them more vulnerable to potential challenges, and so the choice to abstain from participating in the 2024 election is a pivotal moment for the party, with significant consequences for its ongoing presence in the nation's political landscape.
A misguided political choice could adversely impact the party's future, while a prudent decision can yield political advantages. The top leadership of the BNP must grasp the significance of this decision.
Dr Pranab Kumar Panday is a Professor in the Department of Public Administration at the University of Rajshahi.