A family rivalry once again? Plus la change, as they say.
The protests for a living wage by the garment workers only reveals the tip of the iceberg. The rest of society, below the middle class, are hardly keeping their heads above water. Even some of the middle classes are in high anxiety about being dragged down into the water to join the rest of the unfortunates.
This is so much more than a cost-of-living crisis. It is structural. Yet, there is a pervasive attitude among the better-off that the locomotive is, sort of, heading towards a bright horizon, that things are going swimmingly, that 2041 and developed country status is the inevitable destination.
The main opposition, along with non-partisan onlookers, naturally criticizes the abundance of corruption. How can anyone who cares disagree with that complaint? The vast chasm between a tiny opulent elite and the rest is evident. But how about a truly alternative economic and social program?
Let us assume for a moment that the mechanism was triggered, offering an all-round guarantee of a “free and fair election.” What would voters be choosing from? What material and financial improvement in their lives would come from a change? Would society be more equal? Would it be fairer? Would we see a meritocracy emerge?
Here’s something no one asks: Whom do MPs really represent? How many garment workers are MPs compared to factory owners? Substitute garments for other under-privileged actors. Same result. Same lack of representation. Same indifference. Freely voted in, would Parliament not continue to be a lobbying chamber for narrow elite interests?
A one-term government for Xmas?
The thing that sticks in the craw for civil society (and some of the wider public) is the break in the “tradition” of a one-term government. Any more leads to entrenchment of one party, which then spreads its tentacles through the deep state and ensures its survival into perpetuity.
This train of thought concludes that personal security deteriorates, along with blatant looting, to unimaginable depths. Which means that the golden scenario for a bargain-basement democracy is continual change in administrations every five years or so.
The better off have little problem with this. They know the same economic system, loaded in their favour, will remain no matter who is at the helm. The intellectual foundries, think tanks, are infested with neo-liberal economists who are all too happy to couch the discourse in territory the World Bank approves of.
East Asian-style industrialization across the board is not on offer. Forget about significant export diversification. Security and dissent aside (and that is not a given), it makes scant difference if it is a one-term or four-term government.
On the sub-continent, the current form of electoral politics works to the benefit of the Adanis and Ambanis. Ditto their lesser equivalents in Dhaka. The difference is merely that the rest of the sub-continental tribes do not go to war over elections as much as they do here. Welcome to the Battle for Bangladesh.
Hope should never die
The 1990 moment is bitter-sweet. Who didn’t rejoice at the downfall? It was like a new beginning, 1971 2.0. Then, there followed an interregnum. A short period before elections, civil society feverishly worked away at producing ideas, plans, and programs.
After two decades of missed opportunities, they saw it as a second chance. Those thoughts were collated into four volumes and presented to democratic parties as a present – a compendium of ideas for the next democratic government.
BNP won in 1991. Awami League in 1996. BNP in 2001. The books gathered dust. They were rushed, produced mainly by individuals and not coordinated or supported by a national movement.
Yet, despite their shortcomings, they were like a breath of fresh air after the stultifying decade under the regime from Rangpur. The country would be in a better place today had they been implemented then.
We have been warned that the endgame is another “extra-curricular” intervention. Probably by May 2024? As in there are more than two tribes roaming the countryside. That eventuality, if it were to occur, is going to be a lottery. Who knows the ultimate outcome?
Cast a glance at formerly Francophone West Africa. It matters little where one is trained and billeted. 2007 showed how a shuffling of the cards, with an imported agenda, is vulnerable to a swift denouement for players. Import substitution may be a flawed economic idea, but not in political change of any kind.
Powerless on the streets. Disinclined to deal with hired desperados. What does a neutral do? Why not acknowledge what progress has been achieved, but how so much more has been missed?
Deliberate deeply over how 2041 could actually come about. Learn something about East Asia. No, really. Scope out context and adaptation?
The metaphysics goes way beyond current tribal politics. Meanwhile, volatility, in its various hues, will run and run. This will not be over this winter, whatever the immediate permutation.
The situation will evolve.
The field lies barren. May a hundred flowers bloom once more.
Farid Erkizia Bakht is a political analyst.