Rumor has it that a few Jatiya Party (JaPa) leaders and activists have been pinned by the US under its new visa restrictions. Although the mission has not officially announced a list, the mere possibility of such is thought-provoking.
On one hand, I genuinely feel that such sanctions on the part of the US would only enhance those JaPa leaders’ credentials as politicians and they would for once begin to think that they matter.
On the other hand, it makes perfect sense for the US to react, since the party in popular opinion, has only tested the definition of the word “opposition” in recent years.
Let us now look at why or why not JaPa will participate in the upcoming national elections, being fully aware of the possibility of election irregularities and without the participation of the BNP.
Rowshan versus Quader
Some media platforms seem to play a pivotal role in instigating many people who mock the party as “Jatra” (a theatre platform that hosts dramas) party. So, it is worth dissecting the actual “debor-bhabi” (brother-in-law and sister-in-law) power struggle, which is often construed as a joke.
In reality, the party is well controlled by its chairman GM Quader in accordance with the party constitution, which mentions an ornamental post of Chief Patron for the widow of HM Ershad -- Begum Rowshan Ershad.
Rowshan, throughout her old age and ailment, is constantly surrounded by some former leaders and activists of JaPa, some of whom upon decades of service were either fired or forced to disassociate from the party (a common trait of JaPa).
These politicians try to take advantage of Rowshan's health and repeatedly induce her to take over control of the Quader-led forum. Rowshan with limited physical and mental capacity due to illness, and I believe, at times even against her full consent, makes statements that very well feed the media.
Long story short, as someone who disassociated from JaPa as recently as April this year, I can attest to the fact that Quader has complete control over the party. Then again, Rowshan’s position as the opposition leader in parliament serves the ruling party well. Let’s just say, she is easier to manage.
Hence, in case even if Quader is unwilling to participate in the upcoming elections with his men, how difficult would it legally be for Rowshan to register a new JaPa, just like the “Ashol” BNP or “Trinomool” BNP with the Election Commission?
In fact, let alone the support of her current companions or the possibility of re-registration, I strongly believe that she would be able to welcome a good number of nomination aspirants, from amongst the men who have so far devotedly stuck to Quader. Hence, JaPa would go into election, in some form or the other.
JaPa high command and its activists
That being said, I strongly doubt if JaPa MPs at the moment are at all willing to give away the luxury of their powers and benefits that their position entails. I find no reason why they would hold out for a free and fair election, whereas a repetition of 2018 could well guarantee their seats via an arrangement (real or perceived) with the ruling party.
The party overall benefits from the influence that comes from the seats, alongside finances. Having been out of state power for more than three decades, the party is in dire need of money, and donations from businessmen would only flow in if parliamentary seats are secured.
Therefore, both Rowshan and Quader, with their handful of MPs are likely to be more comfortable without the BNP participating and a settlement with the ruling party that is expected to follow.
Also, during my brief tenure in JaPa, I have noticed a sharp difference of perspectives between the MPs and the activists -- the latter are unhappy being labeled as the ruling party's B-team (although it may not necessarily portray any soft corner for BNP), but as mentioned, interests on the part of the MPs are obvious.
As for Rowshan and Quader, it only makes sense on their part to enjoy the stature of opposition and deputy opposition leader than risk being the voice that might otherwise go into oblivion.
Similar political ideology to the BNP
Because both JaPa and BNP belong to the center-right, they have a similar vote bank. When in coalition with the ruling party, the smattering of JaPa votes benefits the ruling party, since this is the conservative bank of votes that they would otherwise not easily be able to bag.
On the other hand, shaking hands with the ruling party puts JaPa in the best of situations, starting from the oddity of having ministers in the cabinet (as the opposition), to being the convenient and home-grown opposition, which the government befriends and provides to.
With BNP out of the picture, truthfully, the situation appears to be ideal for JaPa with the current ruling party.
On the other hand, because of the philosophical similarity, a coalition with the BNP would mean that the whole JaPa leadership would be absorbed by the BNP. Quader (and definitely Rowshan) would cease to have the same degree of control. JaPa would not only be powerless and face financial struggles, but also look forward to an existential crisis.
My aforementioned analysis is limited to the assumption that BNP would boycott the upcoming elections, in which case, I cannot think of a solid reason for JaPa to put pressure on the government for good elections.
Even if the party's respect in the eyes of ordinary people would skyrocket if it were to play the part of a true opposition, I don't see it happening.
Advocate Saquib Rahman is a senior lecturer of law at North South University and Editor of Progress magazine. Previously, former international affairs secretary of Jatiyo Party.