Climate change is, without a doubt, a significant threat to public health, yet it is surprising that only a few people fully comprehend its implications. Taking action to address climate change holds great potential to improve public health, but unfortunately, the intersection of climate change and public health has not received sufficient attention and engagement so far.
It is essential to differentiate between climate change, which occurs over decades to centuries, and climate variability, which takes place over inter-annual time frames. While we are increasingly aware of long-term decadal variations in climate, predicting such changes in an operational context remains challenging due to the climate's strong stochastic nature.
Nonetheless, efforts are being made to explore the link between inter-annual climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, and the predictability of vector-borne diseases. Understanding the barriers and opportunities in this area will advance our ability to respond effectively.
Utilizing ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts can prove beneficial in managing scarce resources for epidemic control and disaster preparedness, particularly in regions like Bangladesh, where the risk of climate extremes and related vector-borne diseases is high. For example, other ENSO-sensitive regions such as French Guiana, Indonesia, Colombia, and Surinam experience warmer temperatures and less rainfall during El Niño years, leading to a higher probability of dengue outbreaks.
It appears that Bangladesh may be encountering a situation akin to what was previously forecasted, with an Eastern Pacific El Niño shaping this year's climate pattern. As evident from the data, the country has already received less than 40% of its usual rainfall during the period of April to July 2023, indicating the progression towards a severe dry spell or drought-like conditions.
Regrettably, no study has yet been conducted to explore the potential correlation between El Niño and dengue epidemics in Bangladesh. Conducting such a study can benefit public health officials by providing them with information about the probability of dengue outbreaks during El Niño conditions, allowing them to take proactive measures such as insecticide spraying and media campaigns.
The urgency of the situation is critical. As outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5-AR6), the Earth has already experienced a concerning 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature from pre-industrial times. Within the next two to three decades, or potentially even earlier, we are projected to witness an additional half-degree of warming. This incremental temperature rise poses substantial risks to our health, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Through collaboration across disciplines, we can forge comprehensive strategies to mitigate the health risks imposed by climate change and strengthen the resilience of vulnerable communities. An essential aspect of this endeavor is the enhancement of scientific communication between experts in climate and vector-borne diseases.
Fostering effective scientific communication between climate experts and researchers studying vector-borne diseases is of utmost importance. This collaboration is instrumental in unraveling the intricate connections between climate and disease transmission, leading to the development of improved strategies for disease prevention and control.
By harnessing the power of climate information, we can enhance our ability to protect public health and alleviate the burden of vector-borne diseases on vulnerable populations. Together, we can create a healthier and more sustainable future for all.
Dr Rashed Chowdhury is a Climate-Applications Scientist, currently associated with the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment at Arizona State University.