Is this 2022 or 1962? Then, the Russians placed missiles in Cuba and the world nearly went into nuclear meltdown. Now, NATO is probing Russia's borders with strategic bombers, ships, and even boots on the ground.
War in the Ukraine is a distinct possibility. As if we are searching for an Archduke to assassinate and start Armageddon. Will Modi understand Putin's plea to strengthen RIC (Russia, India, China) as the core of BRICS? If he does not , the other RIC (with Iran) is moving ahead anyway and reconfiguring the energy and security structure in Eurasia.
If only India's 1,400 diplomats would acknowledge that Curzon saw India as his exploitable farm, a place from which to control and impoverish Eurasia. Independent India is too poor to play. If only West Bengali, Assamese, and Deccan (Dokkhin) politicians could offer an alternative vision of peaceful Asian coexistence. I live in perpetual hope.
Beware of bankers bearing gifts
Seems like a million miles away from Dhaka where this is the morning after a year-long party. The discourse has swung from one extreme to the other. Basket case to “model” even “miracle.” Hang on a minute. Feet on the ground time. Celebration is one thing. Day-dreaming is another. We have seen this plot before.
In the mid 2000s, Zapatero, the Spanish Prime Minister, declared that Spain was “joining the Champions League,” on par with Germany ! Ireland was being hailed as the Celtic Tiger. Then came the financial crisis of 2008. They soon became the “PIIGS.”
The World Bank et al eulogized South Korea and Thailand in the early 1990s. Their version of the story was less about the state-led interventions but more a mischievous narrative of the benefits of neo-liberalism and “opening up.” Then along came George Soros and the other speculators. It took a decade to recover.
Bangladesh would thus do well to seek a sensible, balanced appraisal and ignore the external noise. Look at Ethiopia to grasp how quickly a “model” story (and a Nobel Prize) can disappear in a flash.
Hangover headache
The two largest components of foreign exchange earnings continue to be garments and remittances. Both are low-tech. Vietnam (via Samsung and Intel) produces the hardware for IT. Not just assembly, but seriously complicated, intricate stuff. The industrial diversification here is happening but at a snail's pace. This is urgent.
Why is it that Bangladesh only attracts Foreign Direct Investment of around 1% of its GDP, which is approaching a trillion dollars in PPP terms? Models should be attracting waves of money.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has started its journey. Bangladesh is not on board. It is not even in ASEAN. This matters because all the new rules, regulations, standards, references etc will be implemented there. The core of the world economy is forming on the doorstep, and we are shivering outside in the cold. If one wants to export there (as one must) , then one will have to operate under their norms. It is a bit like choosing between VHS versus Betamax.
India was part of the RCEP project, and then the madness of Modi took over, as Delhi withdrew at the last minute. Instead, Dhaka must go on an immediate charm offensive, laced with business and trade practicalities to help its own companies flourish in the RCEP area.
It absolutely must determinedly promote its so-far-quiet application. Or does Bangladesh wish to remain forever outside RCEP, like a battered Brexited Britain beyond the EU?
1971 is over. Done and dusted . The new dates are 2041 or 2071. Thank you Delhi for then but no thanks for the comatose SAARC and BIMSTEC. No thanks for killing off the Kunming to Kolkata Initiative.
The recent murder of 14 poor Naga miners by soldiers (operating under Nehru's Armed Forces Special Powers Act) would confirm to Curzon's ghost that the Seven Sisters remain the North-East Frontier Province in terms of governance. A mirror image of Myanmar even.
That worldview is of no use to the 270 million strong Bengali Delta (nor the 120 million from Guwahati to Yangon). Instead of an open, borderless region, we got barbed wire and the mentality of the badlands. Fortunately, the Bay remains the outlet for trade, commerce, and security. More Belt than Road then, until Assam gets its head together (and Kolkata finds its mission).
Attitude change?
In a nutshell. Dhaka should forget feel-good comparisons with backward Bihar and UP. Set higher targets -- Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Vietnam.
Only Beijing can solve the Rohingya crisis, given Delhi's indifference. What will convince China to spend political capital on behalf of Bangladesh? Could the small part of the Dhaka elite keen to demonize China answer this question?
Delhi's neo-Curzonian geo-politics, by hook or by crook, will eventually give ground to regional geo-economics. Relatedly (and belatedly) we are learning more about Mr Patrick Joseph Leahy. From the post-Watergate era. Domestically progressive, externally anti-China. Might one conclude we are really being told to eat hamburgers (just like in the old days starting from 1975)? That we have become way too fond of dumplings and noodles?
These are the 2020s, not the 1970s (or even 2000s). The “Asian Century”began this decade, and most people of the Delta know where their golden future lies.
Farid Erkizia Bakht is a political analyst. @liquid_borders