The recently held mayoral elections in Barisal, Khulna, Rajshahi and Sylhet were interesting for many reasons. Mainly so because this was the first head to head contest between BNP and AL since the last general elections. But of course more importantly, because this could be a bellwether for the upcoming (dare I say it?) general elections.
It was a clean sweep for the BNP lead alliance. The crucial thing to analyse here is the margin of the win, in most places it being at about 60% of the vote cast (Barisal at 55%). This means a huge swing away from AL towards BNP. Whatever the reasons one can attribute to it, the shift is undeniable. In the last general elections, a mere 15-20% move gave AL the absolute majority in parliament. This time around a reverse swing will all but reduce AL to a handful of seats.
This seems to surprise many. Leading up to the elections, I have heard many analyses of how this will be a close fight. Many even gave AL 2 or 3 wins. But the writing has been on the wall for a while now. Opinion polls by a leading Bangla newspaper threw up some very interesting points to ponder. When asked, an overwhelming 90% of respondents said they want elections under a caretaker government. Assuming that AL usually has a loyal base of around 30%, even 2/3rds of that are not in support of the party line. Even on questions on government satisfaction level and AL’s flagship issue – handling of the war crimes trials, 80% were negative. Public opinion is against the government and hence the AL. Even in January 2013 polls BNP and AL were neck and neck, but in the last five months, AL has fallen below 35%. This means we now have a 20-25% undecided swing voters. Not BNP's as yet but dissatisfied with AL for certain.
Though I don’t have opinion polls to suggest this but surely one needs to question how the youth of Bangladesh will be voting. It is their overwhelming support that gave AL the absolute majority in 2009. This time around, however, one wonders where will it go. Popular belief is that by co-opting the youth-led Shahbagh movement AL has this constituent sown up. However, support for Shahbag is now below the 25% mark. And anyone who was there in the early days of the movement will attest to the fact that it actually started out as a protest against what was thought to be a back-room deal between AL and Jamaat. The “Ban Jamaat” call from Gonojagoron Mancha backfired. More than 2/3rd of the electorate do not favour this move.
So where does all this leave us? Well, the public posturing aside, here are some ground realities now. AL will of course say that free and fair polls are possible under their watch. But I am sure a lot of the thinkers in the party are sweating – they know they can’t win the elections if this is indeed the case. Meaning AL is not and will not be in favour of one, and therefore, no compromise on the “caretaker” issue. Such high political stakes can leave AL with only two choices. Their preference would be a one sided (with JP opposition?) election. Failing that, a handover to a military backed national government.
To BNP, this is a sign of an overwhelming support for the caretaker system. They still do not believe that an honest election is possible under the AL. They know they have the majority behind them but will not risk it for a biased election. So their movement demanding an election under caretaker will gather strength. And if they do not get one, their vote would be for a military backed national government. Sounds familiar?
Interesting footnote, while most of the elections were head to head between BNP and AL, Khulna did have a JP candidate. His total vote was in the region of 3000 or so. JP is marginalised and redundant. They are at best a regional party.
While a lot of this is based on the mayoral seats, it will be interesting to see how the ward commissioner/councilor vote patterns were like. My money is on 70%-plus of them going to BNP.
There is never a last word in politics. Both the parties are out to woo the voters. What happened in the local elections was just the foreplay (pun intended of course). The climax is still a long way off. Till then, things will get hot and sweaty with some serious manoeuvring in-between!