Vladimir Putin is in an enviable position. The West, mainly the US, would love to be able to read his mind. To be able to probe his mind as to “will he, won’t he” order nearly 100,000 troops and the accompanying armaments across Ukraine’s border is of utmost importance.
To an extent, Mr Putin has tested the waters. The US has been forced to reveal its possible response -- sanctions. And, of course, the symbolic dispatch of smaller arms. Europe clearly doesn’t have the stomach for an armed adventure, NATO or not. The US has been leading the NATO response and has failed to bring on board the two major powers that simply have to sign up -- France and Germany.
The former’s President Emmanuel Macron, so eager to be Europe’s leader, isn’t inclined due to his wobbly ratings. Germany, hamstrung by its inability to be an offensive source, is NATO’s largest European finder. That too, following significant arm-twisting by President Trump. Currently, Germany is more concerned by the Nord oil pipeline that is to pump fuel from Russia to Europe. That is much wanted, given her phasing out of nuclear power plants and growing energy demands.
Russia has played its cards well. It is essentially alone in its ventures. Staying out of the trade friction between the US and China, it has won a silence from Beijing, so much so that any venture into Ukraine is unexpected till the Winter Olympics in Beijing are over. Her gamble, ostensibly to extend fractious borders as far as possible, is dependent on Ukraine not joining NATO, something the US cannot agree on. The small matter of Ukraine’s wishes aren’t anywhere in the mix.
Volodomir Zelenski was a career comedian before an astonishing campaign that saw him elected as President. He hasn’t had much to laugh at or make others do so since then. He would be hard out to muster comedy now.
The threat of economic sanctions, particularly disconnection from Swift facilities, is what they are concerned about. Effectively that denies them input of foreign currency for their trade. That balances, however lopsidedly, with Ukraine’s ability to pay for the arms that the west would supply them. The US has been left wanting and puzzled. They are unsure if Russia’s almost inevitable incursion is a first step towards some form of reunification as the Soviet Union.
Unless Europe can agree on quicker EU integration by embracing more countries that possibility dangles. More so with the sloppy and messy Brexit. Boris Johnson, left ham handed following inexplicable disconcerted blemishes over Christmas parties, is eager to save both career and position. Would like to be known as the broker of peace. He has been upfront in saying he will join the US (when has the UK not tied the line?) in conflict. Reality suggests the US is reluctant to get involved in a skirmish without Germany and France, if at all.
The tragic part of war is that the cost in life and assets is outweighed by the economics of the arms industry. A 100 million dollar aircraft crash has had the US and China racing to find the remains purely from the perspective of possession of technical advantage. The US policy of extricating itself from meaningless conflict has been scuppered. Russia’s threat may force Washington’s hand out of economic reasons and strategic gain.
As the US dabbled in conflict in the Middle East and Afghanistan, China was covering its bases with forward facilities, as was Iran. Russia’s presence in Europe is time-tested. China’s silence is one of giggles.
If conflict breaks out, the trade conflict cannot but lose steam. It also impacts the AUKUS treaty and offers the opportunity of furthering its unresolved border ambitions with India. Mr Modi’s country is in dire straits with a receding economic growth, and most of its growth options in a state of limbo.
And there is the small yet significant prospect of inching closer to Bangladesh to neutralize both India and the US with fortification in the Indian Ocean area adding to the effective 99-year ownership of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.
The mere winds of war create economic distress. War itself devastates. Ukraine’s neighbours, such as Poland, have had issues over free-rolling refugee exodus. A war will rekindle that concern.
At the end of it all, the Chinese experiments to read minds using AI on the Eughur Muslims is what Washington would give a lot to get possession of. If only they could read that one mind, so much could be decided on and action expedited. For now, they can only guess and wait, hoping it doesn’t come down to military means.
Mahmudur Rahman is a writer, columnist, broadcaster, and communications specialist.