Much drama has surrounded the ascent of Narendra Modi, chief minister of the state of Gujarat, to the de facto leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The biggest showdown inevitably had to be the one between him and his former guru, Lal Krishna Advani. The old warhorse didn't want to trot quietly into the sunset, and the results have been messy.
Battles of succession are always messy affairs. This was true 400 years ago, when Aurangzeb killed his siblings and imprisoned his old father, the great Mughal emperor Shah Jahan. It was true 1600 years ago, when Ajatshatru imprisoned his father, the great king Bimbisara. It is still true today. Much has changed, but human nature remains what it was.
The battle of succession in the BJP has been a battle between regional satraps for ascendancy. By and by, Mr Modi has emerged as the most powerful of the regional satraps. His name is known through the length and breadth of India, for good and ill. That in itself is a major feat in a country the size of India, where the average person outside the Gangetic belt would be hard-pressed to name any current national leaders. During the Karnataka state polls of 2008, I met peasants who wanted to vote for the party of "Indiramma," meaning Indira Gandhi, a good 24 years after her death. Across South India, Sonia Gandhi is possibly less known than Indira to this day, and Rahul Gandhi barely registers. Among BJP leaders, it is still Atal Bihari Vajpayee who is best-known everywhere, followed by Advani. Mr Modi has done well, therefore, to attain a measure of brand recall, even if his brand is remembered for murder and mayhem by the Muslims of India.
He has won his first open battle against Advani, who is 85, in part because of this. When the BJP looks around for a leader who can lead them nationally, there are not many options. Their Delhi cabal of leaders "would not win a municipal election on their own," in the estimation of election analyst and head of survey firm CVoter, Yashwant Deshmukh. Arun Jaitley is dependent on Modi for his seat. Sushma Swaraj is capable of winning her own seat if the party organisation supports her … and that used to be guaranteed by Advani, but now the winds are shifting. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan can win his own seat and guarantee a few others, but is unlikely to swing even one seat outside his home state.
By elimination, Modi becomes the BJP's best bet. They have been out of power for nine years. The party workers and cadres are desperate for the perks of office. They have been told by their leaders that they lost about 100 seats by less than 100,000 votes. They believe that under the dynamic leadership of Modi, they can win at least 50 of those 100 seats, which will take them within shouting distance of the throne in Delhi.
Will this happen? Well, possibly not. The fact that Modi excites as much dissent as he does support, has became clear from Advani's rebellion – if any proof was required. Modi has won this round, and emerged stronger, but as long as Advani is alive, he cannot be ignored. Even Vajpayee is not dead; he is bedridden, but still around.
Modi's elevation and Advani's fall will hurt the National Democratic Alliance. The Janata Dal (United) led by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is almost certain to leave, as Modi appears to be running away with the BJP. This will probably help Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal make a comeback, thus denting the chances of both Modi and Nitish.
The BJP knows this and is willing to chance it. Their gambit is based on the hope that they will make up lost ground in Uttar Pradesh, the home state of current BJP President Rajnath Singh, who colluded with Modi to engineer Advani's downfall.
The electoral battleground in UP is, however, quite crowded. It continues to be dominated by the regional parties led by Mulayam Singh and Mayawati.
The BJP wants to turn the 2014 elections into an American-style presidential poll of sorts, with a direct showdown between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. That would enable them to polarise votes and cut out the regional leaders. The regional leaders, obviously, are not prepared to let this happen. For its own reasons, the Congress is also wary of this, because Modi appears to be a far stronger candidate than Rahul, despite the Gujarat riots.
If the 2014 national elections are fought as many regional elections, Modi will be defeated. If they are fought as presidential elections, he may take the BJP to within 100 seats of a majority. They will still need to find allies to make up those numbers.
In that situation, Advani, if he is still in the game, could become the key man once again. The political machinations have only just begun.