Dear reader. It was in 2004 that a strategic team in consulting giant Booz Allen Hamilton formulated a hypothesis built around what was quaintly referred to as the “string of pearls.” The hypothesis, fleshed out to create a shadow doctrine mirrored on the anticipated economic and military objectives of the People’s Republic of China, was constructed on the presumption that China would seek to expand its naval presence by building civilian maritime infrastructure along the Indian Ocean periphery.
Twenty years later, a concerned world, and in particular the region we refer to as South Asia, is witness to the breadth of this peculiar aspect of China’s forward policy, as a network of Chinese military and commercial facilities and relationships built along its maritime lines of communication stretch from Mainland China to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa, embracing within its ambit strategic maritime centres in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Somalia.
A “pearl” refers to a current or potential Chinese overseas military base, mega-infrastructure project, economic corridor, port, or other city or area of Chinese geostrategic advantage in the region. These “pearls” have been identified by US and Indian strategists, and the “string” by which they are “connected” refers to the possibility of a burgeoning PLA Navy connecting these militarily strategic nodes via maritime routes. The overriding objective is on the one hand to secure sources of energy to feed a rampaging economy and, on the other, to create diplomatic ties with trading partners, new and old.
In October 2013, President Xi Jinping unveiled the One Belt One Road blueprint, a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government to invest in what was then an initial number of nearly 70 countries and international organizations.
More popularly known as the “Belt and Road Initiative,” Xi announced the grandiose plan while on an official tour to Kazakhstan with the stated goals “to construct a unified large market and make full use of both international and domestic markets, through cultural exchange and integration, to enhance mutual understanding and trust of member nations, resulting in an innovative pattern of capital inflows, talent pools, and technology databases.”
Built on the ancient backbone of the Silk Route, the lofty preamble of the initiative addresses the concern of an infrastructure gap and the accompanying potential to accelerate economic growth across the Asia Pacific, Africa, and Central and Eastern Europe.
The doctrines as described above are indicative of planning on a global scale and the ability to compose a holistic doctrine for total domination. Over the last 20 years, China has expanded its diplomatic and commercial footprint over much of the world. 145 countries have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes 42 nations in Sub-Saharan Africa.
To cite an example of opportunity which went a begging, in spite of the historical ties of the Gujarati and Sindhi communities with the countries of East Africa, China has a head-start of a generation on complacent India with an investment of hundreds of billions of dollars in the continent and rights and concessions in mining and infrastructure over huge swathes of Africa.
According to estimates, the entire project today affects more than 60% of the world’s population and approximately 35% of the global economy. India, on the other hand, continues to operate in fits and bursts, trying desperately to play catch-up.
In the wake of King Corona, and the universal vilification of China as the harbinger of the virus, the world conspired to bring a suddenly isolated nation to its knees by seeking to incite a flight of capital and manufacturing from its shores. Two years later, the outcome of this myopia is there for all to see.
For, not only has China not been humbled, but their GDP stands at a whopping $18.5 trillion, with the central leadership establishing a “modest” forecast of 5.5% growth in 2022. We, the trembling constituents of the Third World, could benefit immensely from the largesse of such “modesty.”
So, therefore, dear reader, where do we stand in the greater scheme of things?
For India, a $5 trillion economy is possible provided we grow at a rate of 8%, a mere fraction nonetheless of what our rampaging northern neighbour has already achieved. With every passing year, the gap becomes more insurmountable.
The “developing market economy” of compact Bangladesh surges, and is set to exceed the magical figure of $1 trillion within the next decade. Pakistan is, tragically, not just a “client state” in the manner of the traditional neo-imperialist formulation with none of the more salubrious effects of education and culture that such a pattern of relationship would ordinarily inevitably bring.
Worse, it is a once-sovereign nation reduced to the status of a colony, whose sole reason for existence is to ensure a steady stream of natural resources and nuggets of strategic advantage to China.
We bemoan our jagged relationship with Mainland China. Yet, what is the state of our own localized dynamics? The nations of South Asia are nothing if not disunited and fractious. We have the continuum and depth of the notion of a shared civilization that we enjoy, but are seemingly unable to turn it to our advantage.
Similar to China, we also have the deep experience of advancement and tragedy which, in turn, forged a unique people. We are seemingly divided by colour, countless languages, and unique elements of local culture, but are not so different in the final reckoning. This is the greatest legacy of a shared civilization.
Therefore, why can the countries of South Asia not unite in intent, both economic and political? Is it so difficult to infuse the required potency into the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation? Can SAARC not be complemented by a regional free trade zone?
Let a million Special Economic Zones bloom, I say, to unlock the enormous resources that remain confined in the hands of a suspicious few, ignorant of the potential they clutch close to themselves. Power may flow from the barrel of a gun, as is glaringly evident in hapless Ukraine, but it takes commerce and respectable livelihood to permit it, to sustain it.
The People’s Republic of China dominates, but there is nevertheless space for other polities to realize their potential. For, if the modern Confucian empire has taught us one thing, it is the ability to dream, envision, execute, and realize one’s vision on a grand scale.
And for this, dear reader, we must forever be grateful to the phenomenon of the People’s Republic of China.
Sumit Basu is a freelance contributor based in India.