The unfolding situation in Afghanistan since the Taliban's take-over in August 2021 continues to impact the geopolitical and geo-economic architecture of South Asia and the broader continent. One of the primary concerns of major stakeholders is the potential spill-over of security issues from Afghanistan to critical regions such as the energy-rich Central Asia.
While certain major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia have developed active as well as direct engagements with the Taliban, India continues to demonstrate wariness in its communication, despite limited attempts to reach out in the form of aid and developmental assistance.
From the meeting between an official Indian delegation and the Taliban team at the sidelines of the Moscow Format Consultations to committing to provide the Afghans with wheat, life-saving medications, and Covid vaccines, India has endeavoured to pragmatically maintain its presence in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
However, a significant level of caution continues to limit New Delhi’s level of engagement. Considering these factors, India has recently spearheaded several initiatives to solidify its links with Central Asia, in both military and economic dimensions. These approaches will allow India to mitigate the potential insecurity that may spill over from Afghanistan as the Taliban continue to consolidate power.
Why Central Asia matters to India
Geographically situated with China to the East, Europe to the West, Russia to the North, and countries like India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkey to the South, Central Asia has been serving as the crossroads for Eurasia for centuries. Moreover, the survival of the Central Asian countries greatly rely on the maintenance of several corridors and logistical nexuses that connect and extend towards China, Europe, Russia, Europe, and the Indian Ocean region.
Known as the “second Middle East” or the “second Persian Gulf,” the region is rich with energy resources with 16 major sedimentary basins, including 10 basins producing oil and gas that are mainly distributed in the three countries bordering the Caspian Sea; namely, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
Recognizing the significance of Central Asia, India unveiled its “Connect Central Asia” policy (CCAP) in 2012 to enhance its relations with the Central Asian Republics (CAR). A major push towards this direction was greatly motivated by the reality that India’s rise will greatly expand its energy requirements. Moreover, the inefficiency of the coal-dominated domestic energy resources has widened the gap of India’s energy insecurity. Therefore, the need to look for diverse alternatives for oil and energy to meet its growing demands and major power ambitions has prompted India to incorporate the dimension of energy in its foreign and security policy.
While a major component of the India-CAR relationship centres on geo-economics, the latter is closely linked with geopolitics. Maintaining a robust level of economic cooperation between India and the CAR is aligned with developing strong defense ties. The proliferation of terror groups in Central Asia can result in the exacerbation of security conditions in Kashmir and possibly the rest of India.
Moreover, given the Taliban’s re-emergence, several terror groups that are accommodated in Afghanistan may produce further instability in Central as well as South Asia. As a result, a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and Pakistan have the potential of complicating the security architecture of the region.
Recent trends to reinvigorate the partnership
The third India-Central Asia Dialogue held in Delhi on December 19 served as a much-needed reinvigoration of the CCAP due to its emphasis on expanding areas of cooperation based on mutual-trust. Kyrgyzstan Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbaev said that India is an important strategic partner of all countries in the region. In addition, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar emphasized the need to collaborate in the fields of commerce, capacity enhancement, connectivity, and contact.
In terms of connectivity and economic cooperation, India’s development of the Chabahar port in Iran and its incorporation in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are two major projects that need to be given more attention to, in order to maximize their utilization and significance. However, a positive development took place with the virtual meeting between India, Iran, and Uzbekistan on the joint use of Chabahar port and how it can improve the conditions for regional connectivity and cooperation. Due to the absence of a direct access to Central Asia geographically, India will have to cooperate with other major powers that maintain a significant influence in the region in order to craft a more effective policy.
The India-Russia partnership is a historic and practical relationship based on mutual-trust, respect, and shared strategic visions. Russia retains a considerable clout in Central Asia as it is also considered as a security provider. However, China’s exponentially increasing influence among the CAR continues to be a cause of concern for Moscow. As a result, Russia seeks to broaden the scope of its partnership with India to act as a balance in the region. Accordingly, the exchange of a non-paper between India and Russia on widening their areas for collaboration in Central Asia counts as an important development.
One of the major aims of the non-paper is to explore the domain of defense. Considering that the CAR uses Russian-made defense equipment, the non-paper suggests an Indo-Russian joint defense production initiative in existing Soviet-era defense factories in Central Asia. India’s significant familiarity with Russian equipment and Russia’s potent role as a major security partner among the CAR have the makings of an effective framework for cooperation, where all countries can greatly benefit from.
Most importantly, all these countries collectively worry about the potential insecurity that may spill-over from Afghanistan and the proliferation of extremist movements throughout the region.
The way forward
Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced the BRI (then One Belt, One Road) initiative from Kazakhstan. While India is often termed as a latecomer in Central Asia, it must continue to prioritize pro-active measures to ensure that its presence is positively felt in the region. Though existing forms of security cooperation between India and the CAR such as joint research, counterterrorism, and consultations are noteworthy, the need to bolster and diversify the partnership is crucial at a time of great geopolitical shifts.
Moreover, India must remain alert to ensure that “hostile forces” do not dominate or monopolize resources of the region.
Don McLain Gill is a resident fellow at the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC). He is a geopolitical analyst and an author who has written extensively on Indian foreign policy and South Asian geopolitics. Ayanangsha Maitra is an Indian freelance journalist and PhD candidate of Media and Foreign Policy. He tweets at @Ayanangsha.