South Korea is facing a crisis -- both with regard to the future of its current president as well as the future dynamics expected in bilateral relations with the US after Trump’s surprising victory. This has, however, not stopped it from continuing its efforts to ensure strategic stability in the Far East.
South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s approval ratings have dipped into single digits -- and protests calling for her ouster over her relationship with long-time confidante Choi Soon-Sil appear to have gained ground since October. Park has issued public apologies but the opposition is now saying that they will move to impeach her within the next few days.
Park will be suspended from official duties and replaced by the prime minister if parliament passes the impeachment motion. The Constitutional Court would subsequently need to approve the impeachment. However, that is being taken for granted at this point.
Despite these difficulties, the Republic of Korea has pro-actively been sensitising the need for NATO as well as its ally, the US, recognising the seriousness of the evolving situation in Far East Asia with special reference to the provocative activities being undertaken by its northern neighbour -- the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. This momentum has continued since North Korea carried out its fifth nuclear test.
Its Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se has recently visited Brussels and briefed NATO’s North Atlantic Council (NAC), the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini about the security situation of the Korean Peninsula.
The gravity of the North Korean nuclear and missile programs was underscored with the expectation that both NATO and the EU would be willing to respond to a change in future calculus because of North Korea’ s persistent magnitude and frequency of nuclear tests and firing of ballistic missiles of various types.
It was explained that, through such action and plutonium reprocessing, the DPRK had violated UN Security Council resolutions. It was pointed out that North Korea’s advances in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capabilities had made Pyongyang a direct threat even to the continental US. This equation meant that Europe was also within range.
He also highlighted the need for NATO to persuade the UN to adopt not only a new Security Council resolution to close the loopholes in the existing UN Security Council Resolution 2270, but also to take other necessary reliable deterrence measures required for global peace and stability and for overcoming new challenges created through cyber terrorism.
The minister also drew the attention of both NATO and the EU to the observation of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) in this regard and suggested that ROK looked forward to the launch of the first Korea-NATO Cyber Defense Consultative Meeting before the end of this year.
Having drawn attention to ROK’s close association with NATO and the EU, Minister Yun then suggested that NATO could deepen its cooperation with ROK to defeat terrorism and ensure cyber security, along with nuclear, maritime, and space security-- where both parties shared a domain and had common stakes. He also recalled the issuance of the recent UN Security Council press statement which had invoked Article 41 of the UN Charter and asked NATO members to consider taking more resolute measures on relations with North Korea, as stipulated in Article 41 -- including the possibility of cutting off and downgrading diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.
One must admit that this was a very hands-on approach.
This exhaustive approach was taken forward during the 2016 Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Forum (NAPCI) held on October 6 and 7 in Washington DC. This time, other dimensions were added to the agenda. This included nuclear safety where participants shared their view about the establishment of the proposed “Northeast Asia Nuclear Safety Consultative Body” led by the ROK, Japan, and China. They also discussed disaster management and the need to share information on their countries’ disaster response systems and the need for governments, the private sector, the academia, and the civil society to play a greater role in this sector.
After this, the effort towards drawing greater attention to peace and stability in North East Asia, despite provocation from DPRK was taken forward through a ROK-US special ministerial meeting on October 19. It brought together Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se and Defense Minister Han Min-koo from the ROK, and their respective US counterparts -- Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter.
The secretaries and the ministers reaffirmed their commitment to further enhance ROK-US-Japan trilateral cooperation and regional stability
The US reaffirmed their steadfast coordination on nuclear and other issues pertaining to North Korea and discussed ways on how the international community can toughen across-the-board sanctions and intensify pressure on North Korea in a holistic manner. It was also agreed that recently launched ROK-US North Korean Human Rights Consultation could be used to promote human rights in North Korea.
It was also underlined that both governments would try to expand the strategy and policy aspects of bilateral cooperation within the existing ROK-US alliance. To that end, the secretaries and ministers decided to establish a high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) to be co-chaired by representatives from the Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Department of Defense, and the Department of State, with participation from other relevant agencies. They also highlighted the importance of swift Security Council action to facilitate the adoption of a new resolution to further strengthen international response to North Korea’s unlawful September 9 nuclear test.
As part of those efforts, the secretaries and the ministers reaffirmed their commitment to further enhance ROK-US-Japan trilateral cooperation and regional stability through wide-ranging and close consultations. It was also highlighted that the momentum initiated through the March 2016 trilateral summit between President Obama, President Park, and Prime Minister Abe and the September Trilateral Ministerial Meeting in New York on the margins of the 71st UNGA, was an important process and needed to be sustained with seriousness.
As partners in the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, the meeting also condemned the violence and suffering created through IS’s violent extremism. The ROK also pledged to maintain its current level of annual humanitarian assistance at $44 million every year for the next three years to tackle the unprecedented refugee crisis and also committed an additional $100m beyond that level if so required within the next three years.
ROK also reaffirmed its contribution of $255m for continued promotion of peacekeeping activities in Afghanistan. The other interesting aspect was reaffirmation by ROK that given the importance of alleviating and adapting to climate change, ROK would phase down the production and consumption of hydro fluorocarbons consistent with the Montreal Protocol.
One must admit that these positive meetings within a short span of time have raised ROK’s profile not only within Far East Asia but also in the adjoining region. It has also probably been the reason why Russia and China have now pushed for resumption of the six-party talks on de-nuclearisation in North Korea. These talks, it may be recalled, also involve Japan, ROK, and the US -- but have been on hold since 2008.
This dynamics will consequently attract special attention because of the evolving internal Korean political crisis, and also because of emerging trends after Trump takes over in January.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information, and good governance.