The longer the list of promises to save our planet grows, the faster the window of opportunity to address the climate crisis appears to be closing.
For more than three decades, world leaders have gathered at international climate conferences, announcing ambitious targets, establishing financial mechanisms, and pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Yet rising global temperatures, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and climate-related losses and damages have become increasingly alarming realities.
This persistent contradiction raises a fundamental question: Are new commitments truly driving meaningful change, or is each successive conference simply adding another layer of promises to those that remain unfulfilled?
The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is scheduled to take place from November 9 to 20, 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye. Türkiye will preside over the conference, while Australia will lead the formal negotiations.
The particular significance of this year's conference lies in its stated emphasis on implementing previous decisions alongside pursuing new commitments. However, understanding whether these expectations are realistic requires examining the historical evolution of international climate diplomacy.
1992-2015: From Rio to Paris, the historic journey of climate commitments
The institutional foundation of international climate cooperation was established through the adoption of the UNFCCC at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit. Its underlying principle recognized that climate change is a global challenge, but countries differ in their historical responsibilities and capacities to address it.
The first Conference of the Parties, held in 1995, initiated a process of regular international climate negotiations. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, established legally binding emissions-reduction targets for developed countries covered by its commitments. Although an important milestone, limited participation and implementation challenges constrained its effectiveness in controlling global emissions.
At the 2009 Copenhagen conference, developed countries committed to mobilizing $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. However, the target was not achieved within the agreed timeframe.
According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), climate finance reached $115.9 billion in 2022, exceeding the annual target for the first time, two years after the agreed deadline. This delay further exposed the crisis of confidence between developed and developing countries in international climate negotiations.
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, marked a historic turning point in climate diplomacy. Countries agreed to hold the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. They also committed to submitting increasingly ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years.
2021-2023: A new chapter in climate justice and energy transition
At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, countries collectively called for the phasedown of unabated coal power and the phaseout of inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies for the first time in a COP decision. The conference also reaffirmed the importance of strengthening climate adaptation and financial support.
However, no binding timetable was established for a complete transition away from fossil fuels. COP27, held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022, achieved an important breakthrough. Following prolonged negotiations, countries agreed to establish a Loss and Damage Fund to support vulnerable developing nations suffering from climate-related impacts.
For Bangladesh and other climate-vulnerable countries, this represented significant recognition of climate justice and the need to address damages associated with a crisis to which they have contributed relatively little.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement was completed. The conference called for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner. It also highlighted the need to triple global renewable-energy capacity and double the global average annual rate of energy-efficiency improvement by 2030.
The decision to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund was another important achievement. Nevertheless, the absence of clear, enforceable implementation obligations and adequate financial resources remained major limitations of these decisions.
COP29: New financial commitments, persistent implementation concerns
COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024, focused primarily on climate finance. After extensive negotiations, countries agreed on a new goal of mobilizing at least $300bn annually for developing countries by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead.
A broader objective of scaling climate finance from public and private sources to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 was also advanced. Although the new financial target represented a substantial increase over the previous $100bn commitment, many developing countries considered it insufficient compared with their actual needs of climate adaptation, the transition to clean energy, and responses to climate-related losses and damages which require enormous financial investment.
Beyond the amount pledged, the nature of climate finance remains equally important. Loan-dependent assistance can increase the debt burden of climate-vulnerable countries. Therefore, grants, concessional financing, technology transfer, and accessible funding arrangements must receive greater attention.
The fundamental concern is whether these financial commitments will translate into timely and effective assistance for the countries and communities that need it most.
COP30: Familiar questions remained
COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, was presented as a conference focused on implementing climate commitments. Its location in the Amazon region highlighted the interconnections among forest conservation, biodiversity, and the global climate crisis.
The conference adopted the Belém Political Package. One of the key outcomes was an agreement calling for climate adaptation finance to be at least tripled by 2035, indicators for measuring progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation, and initiatives such as the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5°C.
However, the collective outcome did not include a binding, time-bound roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels. The Brazilian COP30 presidency subsequently initiated a separate process to develop relevant roadmaps.
Consequently, despite progress in negotiations, fundamental political disagreements over emissions reductions remained largely unresolved.
More concerningly, the United Nations Environment Program's (UNEP) 2025 assessment indicated that existing policies could result in approximately 2.8°C of global warming during this century.
Even if the latest national climate commitments were fully implemented, projected warming could remain between 2.3°C and 2.5°C. These estimates demonstrate that a considerable gap continues to exist between internationally agreed temperature goals and the actions required to achieve them.
COP31: A new era of implementation?
Against this background, the most important question facing COP31 is how previous commitments can be translated into practical action.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires realistic country-specific implementation schedules, transparent progress assessments, and effective accountability mechanisms.
Similarly, announcing additional climate-finance targets will not be sufficient without examining actual financial delivery.
How much of the promised finance has been disbursed? What proportion has been provided as grants rather than loans? How much has reached vulnerable communities? These questions require transparent and measurable answers.
Strong international cooperation will also be essential for implementing the latest NDCs submitted around 2025. Meaningful progress will be difficult without balancing the historical responsibilities of developed countries, the development needs of emerging economies, and the principles of global climate justice.
COP31 should therefore become an opportunity to remove barriers to implementing earlier decisions rather than another competition to announce new commitments.
Bangladesh's expectations
Bangladesh contributes a relatively small share of global greenhouse gas emissions -- approximately 0.44% in 2024 -- yet remains highly exposed to multiple climate-related hazards.
Coastal salinity, cyclones, floods, droughts, riverbank erosion, and irregular rainfall increasingly threaten agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
According to Bangladesh's NDC 3.0, submitted in 2025, the country aims to reduce its projected greenhouse gas emissions by 20.31% by 2035 relative to a business-as-usual scenario.
This includes an unconditional reduction of 6.39% through domestic efforts and an additional conditional reduction of 13.92% dependent on international support.
Achieving these targets will require increased investment in renewable energy, efficient irrigation, climate-resilient agriculture, improved waste management, and technological capacity.
At the same time, easier access to adaptation finance and the Loss and Damage Fund remains essential. Bangladesh should therefore emphasize needs-based climate financing, grant-based assistance, technology transfer, and stronger international support for locally implementable adaptation projects.
For Bangladesh, climate diplomacy must ultimately deliver practical benefits to vulnerable populations rather than remain confined to international agreements.
The world needs action, not repeated promises
It would be unjustified to describe international climate conferences as complete failures. The Paris Agreement, the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund, renewable-energy commitments, and climate-finance frameworks represent important achievements in international cooperation.
However, their effectiveness will ultimately depend on implementation. The success of COP31 should not be judged by the length of its final declaration, the number of newly announced commitments, or the financial figures presented at the negotiating table.
Instead, it should be measured by actual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, climate finance reaching vulnerable communities, and demonstrable improvements in climate resilience.
The world does not need another layer of climate commitments. It needs credible evidence that existing promises are being fulfilled. Whether COP31 can initiate that transformation remains one of the most important questions facing global climate diplomacy.
Dr Md Shahjahan Kabir is Former Director General, BRRI.