After World War II, military alliances emerged in various regions as a result of the ideological competition between the Western world and the Soviet Union. But in today’s world, there is no longer competition between two distinct camps, and many regions have no such military alliances.
That is perhaps why the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement has aroused curiosity in many countries. The geographical composition of the Makkah Alliance and the circumstances surrounding its formation have given rise to considerable speculation.
The formal journey of this alliance, comprising Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, began a month ago. On September 1, at the first formal meeting in Istanbul, it was decided to establish a secretariat in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, the military and diplomatic leaders of the three countries decided to appoint a Pakistani official as the alliance’s first secretary general for a three-year term.
Following the political decision to form the alliance, the process of establishing its administrative and management structure is now beginning. The easier tasks will come first.
It is expected that the more complex steps required to make a military alliance effective will be taken in the future. However, beyond those complex steps, much remains to be determined -- including the alliance’s ideology, objectives, policies, expansion, and identification of enemies and allies.
It can be said that much more remains unknown about the alliance than is currently known. That is precisely why it has generated so much curiosity among countries outside the grouping.
At the Istanbul meeting, however, officials from the host country made some attempts to satisfy that curiosity, answering some, if not all, of the questions surrounding the alliance.
‘The alliance is open to all’
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the alliance was created on the basis of international values such as respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and non-interference in their internal affairs. However, declaring such values is far easier than adhering to them, as even a cursory look at world politics makes clear.
But there is little doubt that the issue of territorial integrity is of considerable importance to the alliance. Just as alliance member Turkey is fighting separatist Kurdish rebels in the southeast of the country, another member, Pakistan, is confronting increasing activity by independence-seeking armed groups in its Balochistan province.
Hakan Fidan said the Makkah Defense Alliance has no enemies and that its doors are open to other countries. “This alliance is not against any one country, and it is open to all those who share our values in our region,” he said.
Fidan said two things in a single sentence about the possible expansion of the alliance.
First, “open to all”, meaning anyone can join. This statement will give hope to those in Bangladesh who are interested in joining the alliance. Bangladesh has not yet been invited to join, but officials in Dhaka have been expressing their interest for several days.
But Fidan also added the words “in our region.” What exactly does he mean by “region” here?
The founding members of the alliance are primarily countries belonging to the West Asia-Persian Gulf-Mediterranean geopolitical space. Bangladesh, on the other hand, belongs to the South-Southeast Asia-Bay of Bengal region.
India in Bangladesh’s discussions
Regional media reports discussing potential new members of the alliance have more frequently mentioned Egypt and Syria. There is little doubt that Saudi Arabia is interested in bringing Egypt into the alliance, while Turkey wants to bring Syria under its umbrella.
It is difficult to identify any obvious role for Bangladesh in this Middle East-centred security and political framework.
Various local media reports suggest that there are concerns within the alliance about admitting new members. Any new member could bring additional military and political strength.
But it could also introduce different policy priorities, particularly in foreign affairs, as well as different security perspectives -- all of which could complicate the alliance’s operations.
For example, while Bangladesh could contribute experienced peacekeeping troops to the alliance, Dhaka’s geopolitical and strategic priorities would remain focused on Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.
Bangladesh should aim to maintain cordial relations with all countries in West Asia. Participating in a military alliance in the region would mean becoming involved in local disputes, which would run counter to Bangladesh’s interests.
The debate in Dhaka over the alliance is also examining the India factor from two perspectives.
On the one hand, it is being argued that joining the alliance would strengthen Bangladesh’s security and deter India from aggression.
On the other hand, membership could have precisely the opposite effect.
Joining the alliance would mean establishing formal military ties with Pakistan, which could lead India to view Bangladesh as a threat to its security.
A hint at Iran?
It is difficult to understand how a military alliance can be formed without identifying an “enemy.” No matter how “defensive” an alliance claims to be, why would three countries commit themselves to military action in one another’s defense unless they perceived a threat?
The question becomes even more relevant when one of the three countries possesses around 150 nuclear weapons.
The source of the threat has almost certainly been identified. But the secrecy surrounding it suggests that the alliance’s appeal and effectiveness could be undermined if that country or group were publicly named.
Fidan emphasized certain values in his speech, one of which was “non-interference in anyone’s internal affairs.” This principle was probably raised with Iran in mind.
Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the Gulf Arab countries have complained that Tehran seeks to export its revolution to Arab states. There is little doubt that Iranian revolutionaries wanted to overthrow the monarchical systems of the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia.
Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 with financial and other support from Arab countries. Saddam Hussein believed that post-revolutionary Iran could be defeated easily. But after eight years of war, Iraq was forced to accept a ceasefire without achieving its objectives.
The question now is whether the Makkah Defense Alliance was created with Iran in mind. From the perspective of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, such an assumption would seem natural.
Although Pakistan maintains friendly relations with Iran, Islamabad has been providing troops for Saudi Arabia’s security for decades.
Security vacuum in the Gulf
Turkey’s inclusion sends another message. Recent comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggest that war between the two countries may only be a matter of time.
Turkey has been expanding its military presence and political influence in Syria over the past year and a half, developments that Israel views as a threat to its security.
Israel’s plan was to establish dominance across the region after destroying Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Assad regime in Syria. The final obstacle was Iran.
But the failure of the US war against Iran has almost derailed Israel’s plan. Israel is now focused on disarming Syria, but Turkey stands in the way.
The announcement of the alliance comes at a time when the security architecture of the Persian Gulf and eastern Mediterranean has almost collapsed.
The joint US-Israeli military operation aimed at overthrowing the Islamic regime in Iran has effectively failed, creating a security vacuum in the region.
Iran has shattered the perception that the US military presence in the Gulf guarantees the security of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies.
There is considerable uncertainty over when, if ever, US military bases in the Gulf will return. It is believed that the Makkah Defense Alliance will attempt to fill this security vacuum.
The initial assessment is that the alliance is primarily focused on Iran and the Houthi group in Yemen. The main threats to Saudi Arabia’s security come from these two sources.
Israel had hoped to become the principal driving force behind a new regional security architecture following Iran’s defeat. Iran disrupted that plan by calling on Arab countries to coordinate their security with Tehran.
The Makkah Defense Alliance has created the possibility of a new geopolitical alignment in West Asia, in which a regional security architecture could emerge outside the orbit of the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Bangladesh’s ruling authorities probably believe that joining the alliance would not only strengthen the country’s economic interests, particularly manpower exports and energy imports, but also enable Dhaka to play a strategic role in this important region.
But are the interests and perspectives of the alliance’s founding members really the same? No. The same would apply to any new members.
The history of the Middle East teaches us that friendships and enmities rarely remain permanent. Loyalties can shift like the sands of the desert. Bangladesh will have to tread very carefully here, lest it stumble into quicksand.
Sabir Mustafa is the former head of BBC Bangla and is currently working as a freelance journalist and podcaster.
Views expressed are the writer’s own.