How can an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon originating thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean affect the lives of Bangladesh's farmers, consumers, traders, and ordinary citizens?
El Niño is one of the most striking examples of the interconnected nature of the global climate system. In South Asia, where agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods depend heavily on the monsoon, even modest changes in rainfall and temperature can have far-reaching consequences.
According to assessments by international meteorological agencies and research institutions, a strong El Niño event may develop in 2026.
Early signs of climate-related stress have already emerged across South Asia, where heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and concerns about agricultural production have become increasingly evident.
A recent BBC report warned that El Niño could place significant pressure on food production and supply systems across many parts of Asia, highlighting how climate anomalies can influence food security, public health, energy supply, water management, and economic stability.
Understanding these interconnected risks is therefore essential for policy-makers, scientists, farmers, businesses, and the general public.
Understanding the science
To understand these impacts, it is important to understand the science behind El Niño. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Although it originates far from South Asia, it alters global atmospheric circulation patterns, influencing rainfall, temperature, and weather extremes worldwide.
Historically, major El Niño events, including those of 1997-98 and 2015-16, disrupted monsoon rainfall across South Asia, triggered droughts and heatwaves in India, Indonesia, and Australia, reduced agricultural production in several major food-producing regions, strained water resources, and contributed to food price increases in regional and global markets.
One of the most immediate concerns associated with El Niño is its influence on the South Asian monsoon. The monsoon supplies nearly 70-80% of annual rainfall across many South Asian countries.
Agriculture, reservoirs, hydropower generation, and groundwater recharge all depend heavily on its performance. Historically, El Niño years tend to weaken monsoon circulation.
While the relationship is not perfectly consistent because other ocean-atmosphere systems such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may also influence monsoon behaviour, it can either reinforce or offset El Niño's influence on regional rainfall.
Many El Niño episodes have been linked with below-average rainfall over India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Reduced monsoon rainfall can have cascading effects throughout the economy.
Less rainfall means lower soil moisture, reduced river flow, inadequate reservoir storage, and greater dependence on irrigation.
In countries where millions of farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, the consequences can be particularly severe.
At the same time, El Niño often brings higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves.
Increased evapotranspiration accelerates soil moisture loss, placing additional stress on crops and livestock while increasing water demand.
Urban areas also face growing pressure as demand for cooling rises and heat-related illnesses become more common. Children, older people, outdoor workers, and low-income households are particularly vulnerable.
Implications for agriculture and food security
These changes in rainfall and temperature have significant implications for Bangladesh's agriculture.
Rice, the country's staple food, is especially vulnerable because the Aman season depends heavily on monsoon rainfall.
Delayed rainfall can delay or postpone transplanting, while drought and heat stress during critical growth stages can reduce yields.
Even a modest decline in rice production can affect food availability, market stability, and household purchasing power.
The risks, however, extend beyond rice.
Maize, wheat, pulses, oilseeds, vegetables, and fruits may also experience productivity losses due to heat and moisture stress.
Livestock production can suffer through reduced feed intake, lower milk yields, and declining fertility, while poultry farms may face higher mortality during extreme heat. Fisheries are also vulnerable, as rising water temperatures can reduce dissolved oxygen levels and disrupt breeding cycles.
Together, these impacts can weaken the resilience of the entire food production system and reduce farm incomes.
Water scarcity, food prices, and economic pressure
Agricultural challenges are often compounded by water scarcity. Although Bangladesh receives substantial annual rainfall, seasonal shortages are becoming increasingly common.
During El Niño years, reduced rainfall can lower groundwater recharge, decrease river flows, and intensify drought conditions.
This is particularly concerning because the country's irrigation-dependent Boro rice system relies heavily on groundwater.
In northwestern Bangladesh, where groundwater depletion is already a concern, prolonged dry conditions could further strain water resources.
Coastal areas face an additional threat as reduced freshwater flows may allow saline water to penetrate farther inland, affecting agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water supplies. As agricultural output declines and production costs rise, the impacts extend beyond the farm sector.
Reduced supply combined with steady demand tends to push food prices upward. Previous El Niño events have contributed to volatility in global markets for rice, wheat, edible oils, and other commodities.
For Bangladesh, where lower-income households spend a large share of their income on food, rising prices can reduce dietary quality, increase poverty, and worsen nutritional outcomes.
If several major agricultural producers in Asia experience climate-related losses simultaneously, regional food markets may become even more vulnerable.
Public health, energy, and regional implications
The consequences of El Niño are not limited to agriculture and markets. Higher temperatures can increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and influence the spread of vector-borne diseases.
Water shortages and declining water quality may increase the incidence of waterborne diseases, while rising food prices can contribute to nutritional deficiencies among vulnerable populations.
Farmers experiencing crop losses and financial uncertainty may also face significant psychological stress. The same climatic conditions can place growing pressure on energy systems and infrastructure.
Extreme heat increases electricity demand, while drought conditions may reduce hydropower generation in some regions.
Roads, railways, and other infrastructure may also suffer damage from prolonged heat, increasing maintenance costs and disrupting economic activities. Because South Asian countries are interconnected through trade, food markets, river systems, and economic networks, the impacts of El Niño rarely remain confined to one country.
A weak monsoon in India, for example, can influence regional food supplies and prices, while changes in Himalayan water systems can affect multiple countries.
These shared vulnerabilities underscore the importance of regional cooperation in climate monitoring, agricultural planning, food trade, and water management.
Preparing for an uncertain future
Although El Niño cannot be prevented, its impacts can be reduced through timely planning and science-based adaptation.
Governments should strengthen seasonal climate forecasting and early warning systems so that farmers, water managers, and policymakers can take preventive action.
Greater investment in climate-resilient agriculture, including drought-, heat-, submergence-, and salinity-tolerant crop varieties, can help reduce vulnerability.
Water conservation, rainwater harvesting, managed aquifer recharge, and improved irrigation efficiency should also receive greater priority.
Among the most important adaptation measures is the establishment of a modern national crop forecasting and market intelligence system. By integrating satellite remote sensing, GIS, artificial intelligence, meteorological information, and field observations, such a system could provide timely forecasts of crop production and identify emerging risks before they become major crises.
A robust market intelligence component could also monitor production, stocks, prices, trade flows, and demand conditions, supporting evidence-based decisions on food imports, grain reserves, procurement, and price stabilization.
In an era of increasing climate uncertainty, Bangladesh must move from reactive crisis management to proactive risk management.
El Niño is no longer a distant climate phenomenon confined to the Pacific Ocean. Through its influence on high temperature, erratic rainfall, agricultural stress, water scarcity, and food price volatility, it has the potential to affect food security, livelihoods, public health, and economic stability across Bangladesh and South Asia.
For many years, the links between distant oceanic processes and local weather conditions remained poorly understood due to limited scientific knowledge, inadequate forecasting capabilities, and the absence of advanced technologies capable of monitoring global climate interactions.
Today, advances in climate science, remote sensing, GIS, artificial intelligence, and seasonal forecasting provide valuable tools for anticipating and managing such risks. However, climate change is amplifying weather extremes and increasing vulnerability across South Asia.
Although uncertainties remain regarding the strength of a possible El Niño event in 2026, historical experience suggests that Bangladesh should prepare for the consequences of a weaker and more erratic monsoon, including risks to food security, livelihoods, public health, and economic stability.
Strengthening climate resilience, improving resource management, and establishing a national crop forecasting and market intelligence system can help shift the country from reactive crisis management to proactive risk management, ensuring a more food-secure and climate-resilient future.
Dr Md Shahjahan Kabir is Former Director General, BRRI.