The Padma Barrage: Ignoring historical warnings

Before the barrages, before the embankments, before the Krug Mission and the Flood Action Plan and the Ecnec approvals that now arrive every few decades bearing price tags in the billions -- before any of this, there was the bend.

The Kopai River carves a sharp turn through the Rarh region of western Bengal, a landscape of laterite soil that turns the water rust-red in monsoon. At this bend, which the novelist Tarashankar Bandyopadhyay would later make immortal under the name Hansuli Turn, the Kahar community lived out a relationship with the river that was not merely economic or hydrological but ritual.

The Kahars were an “untouchable” community whose traditional livelihood of palanquin-bearing had collapsed under modernity’s advance. They turned, as so many marginal communities in Bengal have always turned, to the river and the land it nourished. But their agriculture was not the simple matter of planting and harvest. It depended on an embankment -- one they maintained not as the state maintains infrastructure, with budgets and contractors and five-year plans, but as a community maintains a covenant. 

The elders walked the bank at dawn, reading the water’s mood. When the monsoon came, they understood that the river must be allowed to spill -- not everywhere, not without guidance, but enough to deposit its gift of silt. This was flood not a disaster but as renewal, negotiated across generations.

Tarashankar’s 1947 novel Hansuli Banker Upakatha -- translated into English as The Tale of Hansuli Turn is built around a fundamental conflict. On one side stand Banwari and Suchand, the elders who maintain the community’s myths and their ritual relationship with the land. The river is understood as a living presence, named for Kopavati, a wrathful woman who can destroy everything during monsoon yet remains fertile with sediment and yields good crops. 

On the other side stands Karali, a young Kahar who sees the old ways as chains. He brings railroads, wage labour, brick kilns. He breaks from the community’s stories. And in breaking from the stories, he severs the covenant. The embankment, no longer maintained as ritual, begins its slow decay. The river, no longer negotiated with, becomes an adversary.

Tarashankar was not writing environmental policy. He was writing fiction -- recognized as one of the great novels of modern Bengal. But what his novel captures with the precision that only literature can achieve is what was lost when river management was severed from community practice and handed to external authorities. 

The Kahars’ embankment was never merely infrastructure. It was the physical manifestation of a social contract. When Karali chose the railroad over the ritual, he did not simply modernize. He broke a relationship that had sustained life at Hansuli Turn for longer than memory.

The knight and his doubt

What Tarashankar captured in fiction, a knighted British engineer had already spent his final years trying to tell the empire -- and being ignored.

Sir William Willcocks was born in India in 1852, trained at Roorkee Engineering College, and went on to design the first Aswan Dam, completed in 1902. He was knighted for his services to imperial irrigation. He designed the Hindiya Barrage on the Euphrates, bringing 3.5 million acres under cultivation in Mesopotamia. 

This was, by any measure, one of the most accomplished civil engineers of the imperial age -- a man who had spent his entire career building precisely the kind of large-scale hydraulic infrastructure that defined colonial development and that the Padma Barrage, approved by Bangladesh’s Ecnec in May 2026, proposes to replicate at a Phase I cost of Tk 33,474 crore.

And yet.

In 1930, near the end of his life, the 78-year-old Willcocks stood before the University of Calcutta and delivered a series of lectures that amounted to an indictment of his own tradition. The lectures, published by the university under the title Lectures on the Ancient System of Irrigation in Bengal and Its Application to Modern Problems, argued that British rule had destroyed a superior indigenous irrigation system in Bengal. 

Working alongside the malariologist CA Bentley, Willcocks contended that pre-colonial Bengal had possessed a system of “overflow irrigation” that was admirably suited both to agricultural productivity and to malaria control. The annual flooding that colonial engineers saw as a problem to be controlled was, in fact, the mechanism by which the delta renewed its fertility. 

Silt-laden water, guided by community-maintained embankments and allowed to spill onto floodplains in controlled ways, deposited nutrients and raised land levels. Stagnant water bred mosquitoes; flowing, silt-heavy water did not.

The colonial administration had not improved Bengal’s waterscape. It had, Willcocks argued, wrecked it -- replacing a negotiated relationship with the delta’s dynamics with rigid embankments that separated land from water, reduced fertility, and increased disease.

The historian Daniel Klingensmith, in research presented to the American Historical Association in 2011, confirms that Willcocks and Bentley’s ideas “received widespread acceptance.” But the colonial administration could not accept them. To do so would have required admitting that its entire approach to water management in Bengal was not merely imperfect but actively destructive. 

The knowledge was institutionally buried. The lectures were published -- a 128-page volume with a folded map, later reprinted in 1984 by BR Publishing Corporation in Delhi -- but the policy did not change. The embankments stayed.

Willcocks died two years after the lectures, in 1932, estranged from the establishment that had knighted him. His obituary in Nature described him as “fond of controversy” and “somewhat intolerant of adverse opinion” -- the language of institutional marginalization rendered as personality flaw -- but conceded that “subsequent events have vindicated many of his opinions.” He died on the margins, vindicated but uncelebrated.

The unbroken logic

What followed Willcocks’s warning was not a change of course but a deepening of the logic he had warned against.

In 1954 and 1955, devastating floods struck East Pakistan. The United Nations dispatched what became known as the Krug Mission, which recommended the “Cordon Approach” -- uninterrupted embankments separating floodplains from rivers. This was precisely the logic Willcocks had argued against. 

A Dutch water engineering professor, Willem Johan van Blommenstein, served on the mission. The Dutch came from a delta that carries 2.7 million tons of sediment annually -- a landscape where the cordon approach made a certain sense. 

The Bengal delta carries between 1.5 and 2 billion tons. They were solving a problem their rivers did not pose, using methods their landscape could sustain, and imposing them on a delta that works by entirely different rules.

From 1961 to 1964, the Coastal Embankment Project, funded by USAID and inspired by the Dutch polder system, constructed approximately 4,800 kilometres of embankments, creating 139 permanent polders. 

The community practices that Willcocks had documented -- and that Tarashankar’s fictional Kahars had lived -- were declared obsolete. Within decades, riverbeds silted up. Land inside polders subsided below river level. Permanent waterlogging began affecting over two million people.

By the 1990s, Dutch experts were deeply involved in Bangladesh’s Flood Action Plan, and from 2012, Dutch-Bangladesh water cooperation officially shifted “from traditional aid to sustainable trade,” focusing on “economic cooperation, investment, and trade promotion.” The cordon approach persisted under new branding. The warning Willcocks had delivered in 1930 remained unheeded.

Then, in the 1990s, something remarkable happened in the southwest delta. Communities facing permanent waterlogging did what their ancestors would have done, though the knowledge had to be painfully reconstructed. They broke open a polder embankment. 

The state sued them for destroying government property. But the tidal water rushed in, deposited sediment, raised the land -- and the waterlogging receded. Tidal River Management, the very system Willcocks had described in 1930, was rediscovered through an act of civil disobedience. It was later recognized in the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, though it remains chronically underfunded.

And now, 2026: The Padma Barrage has been approved. A 2.1-kilometre structure with 78 spillway gates, 18 undersluices, two fish passes, a navigation lock, and a railway bridge. Storage of 2,900 million cubic metres -- roughly 3 BCM -- on a river that carries between 350 and 525 BCM annually. 

The promised irrigation for 1.9 million hectares would require, by the calculations of water expert Professor Md Khalequzzaman, between 9 and 26 BCM of water. The math does not work. 

The sediment, estimated at 400 to 600 million tons annually, will be trapped. The delta will starve. The warnings Willcocks delivered in 1930 are being ignored again -- this time not by colonial administrators but by our own.

The man who became a myth

There is another figure in this story, one who lives where the failure of taming the river has already unfolded. 

In Syed Mustafa Siraj’s Sahitya Akademi Award-winning novel Aleek Manush, set in Murshidabad district on the banks of the Padma, the protagonist Safi is a rebel who rejects the state, which he views as a “torture machine” run by complicit officers and state-owned “hooligans.”

The Farakka Barrage looms over this landscape -- the original wound, the structure that slashed dry-season flows and began the saline advance into the Sundarbans. 

Safi, wandering the eroded banks, becomes a mythical figure to both Hindus and Muslims. The novel’s title, Aleek Manush, means “The Unreal Man” -- an irony the text itself insists upon, for Safi is very much flesh and blood, very much real. What is unreal, the novel suggests, is the state’s claim to legitimacy, its promise that structures like Farakka serve the people.

Siraj, who spent his youth traveling rural West Bengal with the folk theatre group Aalkaap, brought to his writing what the poet-journalist Syed Hasmat Jalal called “an unparalleled creative genius.” 

The novelist Sunil Gangopadhyay observed that Siraj depicted rural Bengal “with far more authenticity than writers like me who live in the city.” And Siraj himself was explicit about his philosophical commitments: “I am free of religious belief,” he said, but also “tolerant towards anybody’s religion.” 

His deeper conviction was that the state, particularly in its relationship with nature and rural communities, was a mechanism of violence. “Man tries to control nature,” he observed, “as for example building a dam across a river.”

The violence of not listening

There is a theoretical name for what has happened here.

The scholar Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak, in her foundational essay “Can the Subaltern Speak?”, argued that marginalized communities are structurally silenced not because they lack voice, but because the very framework of institutional expertise renders their knowledge inaudible. The subaltern speaks. The powerful cannot hear -- not out of malice alone, but because the structure of power determines what counts as knowledge and whose knowledge counts.

This is the arc that connects Willcocks in 1930 to the Ecnec approval in 2026.

Willcocks, unusually for a colonial engineer -- perhaps uniquely for a knighted designer of the Aswan Dam -- tried to hear what the delta and its people were saying. He recognized that the overflow irrigation system was not primitive but sophisticated, not superstition but science of a different order. He was ignored. His ideas were institutionally buried.

The Krug Mission did not consult the communities whose irrigation systems they dismantled. The Dutch model was imposed without asking whether a low-sediment delta’s solutions could work in the most sediment-rich delta on earth. Tidal River Management emerged only because communities, facing inundation, forced it through direct action -- breaking the law to prove what the law had made unhearable.

And now the Padma Barrage is approved, with claims of irrigation, salinity reduction, and hydropower that the evidence does not support. 

The promised irrigation would require three to nine times the water the barrage can store. The sediment trapping will replicate and compound the ecological damage Farakka has inflicted for half a century. 

The promised benefits to fisheries ignore that hilsa migration, already disrupted by Farakka, will be obstructed further. No comprehensive, public Environmental Impact Assessment (EIS) has been conducted. The communities whose lives will be reshaped by this structure have not been meaningfully consulted.

The epistemological violence continues. Only the passports of the engineers have changed.

The question the river asked

Picture Sir William Willcocks in Calcutta, 1930.

He is 78 years old. He has built dams across the Nile and the Euphrates. He has been knighted by an empire. He has spent his career in the service of precisely the kind of large-scale hydraulic engineering that the Padma Barrage represents. 

And he is standing in a university hall, at the end of his life, telling that empire that the Bengali peasants it dismissed as primitive understood the delta better than its finest engineers.

Willcocks died, estranged from the establishment he had served whose lectures were published, then ignored. The cordon approach rolled on through the Krug Mission, the Coastal Embankment Project, the Flood Action Plan. Farakka was built. The polders were built. The waterlogging came. 

The TRM communities had to break the law to prove what Willcocks had told the university 70 years earlier. And now the Padma Barrage proposes to repeat the pattern on an even larger scale.

At Hansuli Turn, the brick kilns that Karali’s logic brought now line the Kopai’s banks. The river Tarashankar immortalized is reduced to a trickle. The embankment the Kahars maintained as ritual has been replaced by an embankment the state built and abandoned. The covenant is broken.

At Murshidabad, on the banks of the Padma, Safi still walks. The Aleek Manush. The unreal man who is more real than the state’s promises. He walks where Farakka’s downstream consequences continue to unfold -- the erosion, the water scarcity, the slow saline creep. He is a figure of resistance against the very logic that now proposes to build another barrage, further downstream, with the same justifications and the same silences.

And Sir William Willcocks, the knight who listened when his empire would not, asks from 1930 the question that has never been answered, only deferred: Will we learn to negotiate with the river, or will we keep building monuments until the delta can bear no more?

The river told him. He tried to tell us. The question remains, and the Ganges Treaty expires in December. The decision window is open. For now.

Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal. His email address is zakir.kibria@gmail.com