Pakistan, at present, is in a state of turmoil, be it economically or politically. Ever since the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan -- which took place in April last year -- the nation has been politically divided and the boiling point ultimately reached its peak on May 9 this year, when Khan was arrested from the Islamabad High Court premises by the National Accountability Bureau.
Although Khan was removed from office, he never accepted his successor's accession to power and called it a “conspiracy.” Khan also accused the US government of being involved behind his ouster and it's interesting to note that all of these events happened after the one-time cricketer made a visit to Russia shortly after the Ukraine war started.
Right now, following the countrywide protests against Khan's arrest, several protesters have been arrested which also includes PTI (Tehrik-I-Insaf Pakistan) leaders in large numbers.
Even though he was released from prison on May 11, Imran Khan's political party, PTI, is in shambles as of now after many of its leaders quickly resigned due to fear of the Pakistani Army (which is also believed to be involved in getting Khan out of power). But in order to understand the true nature of the current situation in Pakistan, knowledge regarding contemporary situations is not enough. One has to delve deep into the roots of these problems.
The reasons behind the crisis
There has never been sufficient and significant state reforms in Pakistan over the decades since its freedom in 1947 nor any economic reforms. The colonial state machinery which had been implemented by the British government during its ruling years in the sub-continent was not reshaped by neither India nor Pakistan. Due to this, the elites of Pakistan -- who majorly comprise military officers, bureaucrats and ruling party leaders -- always get the opportunity to plunder the country's resources for their own gain. The majority of these elites comprise Punjabs and they are heavily prejudiced against the Balochs and Pashtuns.
The dismal state of the country's economy and national budget is because of the aforementioned practices by the people of the ruling party over several years. The lion's share of the resources is utilized for initiatives like military funding and this is in legal means for the government to do so, as per the Pakistani constitution. For instance, as per the reports of Pakistan Today, the defense budget for 2022-2023 was announced to be $7.5 billion and this was a 12% increase from that declared for 2021-2022. The justification behind such an increase was given on the fact that it would be offset by the rising inflation in the country.
Borrowing money from other countries repeatedly over the past years has raised the country's debt crisis. China is one of those countries from whom Pakistan has regularly borrowed and right now owes a lot of money to. A lack of production within the country itself allowed it to heavily rely on foreign imports more and more. But the rising debt default caused the Pakistani currency to fall over the recent years and this has caused imports to be more expensive. All of these factors combined resulted in a tremendous rise in inflation and, by June 2022, this reached an all time high with increasing food prices.
Even if we draw comparisons to India and Bangladesh, Pakistan's productivity per capita remains significantly lower and add to that the poor governance of the leaders which ultimately have led to the present “balance of payment” crisis. This is a condition where Pakistan has become incapable of obtaining sufficient foreign exchange for financing the imports which it consumes. The IMF has also been very reluctant to offer any loan to Pakistan because of the country's growing debt crisis and political instability.
Being above the law
Because of the colonial state machinery and bureaucracy in the Pakistan government, there happens to be a sense of being above the law for many in the elite groups. Prominent among these are the military and paramilitary forces of the country, along with intelligence agencies like ISI. In many areas, the military administrations appear to exercise more authority in comparison to the civilian administrations.
The present crisis in Pakistan is a good example of how the paramilitary forces can get away by doing anything without any fear of repercussions. For instance, the abduction of Imran Khan while he was in High Court can be considered to be a violation of law. But the persons involved in this act do not have to hold any accountability to anyone since they did this on behalf of the state's orders.
Ethnic imbalance
Pakistan is a country of various ethnicities. There are the Punjabis, Pashtuns, Muhajirs, Balochs, Sindhis, along with a couple of others. However, the relationship among these ethnic groups is not very stable which led to the country being very ethnically imbalanced. As mentioned earlier, the Punjabis have risen to the top of Pakistan society and generally tend to look down upon the Balochs. Balochistan is a region in Southwestern Pakistan. In addition to the Balochs, the Punjabis also hold the Pashtuns with contempt. Being very prideful, the Pashtuns have not taken lightly the negligence of the Punjabis.
Balochistan has been fighting for its autonomy for a very long time, since 1948 to be precise. This is often regarded as the longest insurgency ever in any part of the world and ongoing to this very day. Countries like Pakistan and Myanmar which are ethnically so divided can even find themselves to the brink of an existential crisis. The Pakistani government has called the Baloch insurgents “terrorists” and vowed several times to crush the insurgency.
Rise of extremism
The situation of many being above the law gradually leads to an escalation of extremism and fanaticism. The uprising of extremism in Pakistan was also demonstrated through the terrorist attack on Army Public School in Peshawar in 2014 that claimed the lives of 150 people, among whom 132 were children. Extremism in ideologies often is the result of intolerance rising due to subjugation over several years.
There have been several attacks on Pakistani troops in various parts of the country this year. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (known commonly as TTP) claimed responsibility for many of these attacks. TTP has a close alliance with the Afghan Taliban government. It can be speculated that the Afghan Taliban government -- which appears to be ideologically aligned with TTP - may secretly wish for TTP to have the same amount of success in taking over Pakistan like they themselves did in Afghanistan. The recent terror attacks across several regions claimed the lives of many army and paramilitary officials.
Yet this is a problem to which not only the Pakistani government but also the country's society appear to have no possible solution. Some see this as karma striking Pakistan because of their role in forming the Mujahideen with the aid of the US government under Ronald Reagan, in order to defeat and thwart the Soviet Union during their invasion of Afghanistan in the 80s.
Geo-political games
The geographical location of Pakistan has always been an eye catcher for the World superpowers. For one, Pakistan is located between India and China. The two current global powers -- US and China -- have sought ways to take advantage of Pakistan in their quest for geo-political dominance. China's often hostile relations with India over border issues has led it to form a military alliance with Pakistan, as per the concept of “the enemy of your enemy is your friend.” Since 1962, China has been the largest arms supplier to Pakistan and the two countries have assisted each other in modernizing technical facilities that have led to the production of better military hardware.
The US, on its part regarding the sub-continent, has displayed no less ambition. During the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in the 80s, the US government had provided massive funds to the Pakistani intelligence for training the Afghan Mujahideen. Pakistan's role in the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan was an immense geo-political victory for the US because, not long afterwards, the Soviet Union itself collapsed. The engineering practices by the powerful countries over Pakistan have caused the country's foreign policy to become somewhat complicated over the years, as both China and the US continue to compete with each other more aggressively.
Future prospects and challenges
As long as there are not any economic, social and political reforms in Pakistan, the country's future prospects will continue to be bleak. Today's Pakistan faces the greatest challenge thus far in the country's entire history -- and that challenge is from within, not without.
Can Pakistan find its way towards a stable democracy? Or will the nation perpetuate its downward spiral into kleptocracy? The answer remains to be seen for now. But one thing is for certain: Stability in Pakistan is much needed, not just for the nation but for the entirety of South Asia itself.
Chowdhury Taoheed Al Rabbi is a freelance contributor.