Because of the real and narrative power of the US economy and society upon the whole world, US national elections, be they presidential or just midterm, have become highly anticipated events. The 2022 midterm election is no different.
Historically, the first midterm election after a new president is inaugurated is an election of backlash to the president and his party because of the inevitable disappointment from failure to deliver on the highly optimistic promises made in the presidential election.
Reagan in 1982, Bush I in 1990, Clinton in 1994, Obama in 2010, and Trump in 2018, all were in line with this trend. The only exception was Bush II in 2002; because of the very exceptional circumstances following 9-11 and the beginning of the “War on Terror.”
It seems that the 2022 election will conform to the pattern. The US economy is in a bad shape, and Joe Biden has become quite unpopular.
Therefore, it seems a Republican wave is in offing on November 9.
However, the most important trend in US politics in the last decade has been the growing and solidifying political polarization of the people.
The voting people are becoming entrenched in their political identities. The 2020 election, where both the Democratic and the Republican candidate received record-breaking votes and very few seats changed in congress, exemplifies this polarization. Polarization may provide some brakes to the predicted Republican wave in this election.
While the Republican election messaging is centred on the state of the economy, the Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the polarization by focusing on threats to individual rights from the Republicans, right of abortion, right of voting, rights of minority sexual and gender expressions and behaviour, etc.
Democrats are saying that not just individual liberties, but the very democracy of the US is under threat from Republicans if they get back to power in Congress. Economy versus rights has become the battle line in this election politicking.
The US economy, although in better shape than most of the world, is in a historically bad situation that is creating lots of suffering and discontent.
The main problem is inflation which has shot up to levels unseen in four decades and refuses to come down despite drastic measures of the federal reserve.
Although forecasted frequently, a recession has not yet arrived and there is job growth. However, job growth is taking place without wage growth in an inflationary economy, thus providing no relief to the general people.
People generally blame incumbents during economic distress and Democrats are suffering the full wrath of the discontent.
Democrats deserve some but not all of the blame for the inflation. Inflation can occur in the economy from supply and demand. When supply of essentials like food, energy, housing, and/or consumer goods gets disrupted, prices go up.
The Covid pandemic has provided a huge globe-spanning disruption of supplies in everything from essential foodgrains to sophisticated microchips. Democrats have little to do with this global disruption.
However, many analysts blame the administration for not coordinating fast enough when the disruption became evident and for giving mixed messages to suppliers of oil and gas about policy directions.
The other driver of inflation is demand -- when demand for goods exceeds supply from people having more money to spend, inflation also occurs.
Many experts blame the Biden administration for massively increasing the money supply in the economy through multi-trillion-dollar bills like American Rescue Plan, Student Debt relief, Loan forgiveness, and others. Economists like Larry Summers have been cautioning about big spending in the fragile Covid stricken economy since before the inauguration but were ignored and vilified by Democrats. Now they have been largely vindicated.
Compounding the woe of the economy are governance failures at federal and local levels in managing the border and illegal immigration, handling increasing petty and violent crimes in cities, providing accurate information about the efficacy of vaccine mandates, and closure of schools, public places, and travel restrictions.
A state of malaise in the economy and society has compelled the Democrats to focus on rights that are threatened by Republicans. This strategy actually germinated months ago during the hot summer when the conservative Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, the precedent that gave American women unrestricted rights to abortion.
Until a few weeks ago it looked that the backlash to Roe v Wade may actually save the Democrats from the traditional midterm backlash. However, inflation and state of the economy came to the forefront again and Democrats lost a lot of goodwill in the abortion debate as they also were perceived as extreme in unfettered rights of abortion.
Most people in the US want the right of women to abort in the first few months of pregnancy but want restrictions during the advanced stages of pregnancy. Beholden to a loud base, Democrats failed to articulate if they want any restrictions at all.
Similarly, the focus on the rights of sexual and gender minorities, the LGBTQ+ community, has repelled as many voters as it retained. Interestingly, minorities, the traditional and loyal part of the Democratic coalition, seem to be drifting in large numbers away from Democrats. Conservative Muslims are wary about LGBTQ+ issues, East Asians about crimes targeting Asian people, and Hispanics about closures and restrictions hobbling the economy.
All of this may seem like a perfect storm is going to hit President Biden and the Democrats on November 9 but as previously mentioned, polarization may mitigate a lot of the fury.
Final polls and early voting trends indicate that Democrats are in trouble, but they are not going to fall off the cliff. The probable result is 20-30 Republican pickups in the House and two to three seats in the Senate. This means that power will shift to Republicans in Congress but not very decisively.
The Republicans will provide much-needed brakes on the Biden administration's expansionary spending policies. This will be a great help to not just the US economy but also the economies of the whole world.
Ironically, by helping to tame inflation, Republicans may just boost prospects for the Democrats in the 2024 presidential election.
Shafiqur Rahman is a political scientist.