Joe Biden has now been US president for one year. He’d inherited a four-year chaotic performance of the US in dealing with the rest of the world. It is hard to exaggerate the failure of purpose, direction, and implementation of American foreign policy. Trump destroyed the balance of the world economy and political systems that had served the US so well.
Accidentally, this destructive flaying came at the same time that Covid-19 struck humanity. Trump was defeated in an election that a large percentage of Americans deny the outcome. The attempt by Trump to overthrow the legitimate government of the US on January 6, 2021 with one major political party in a state of denial leads one to the sad and for me tragic conclusion that the US has lost direction and is losing its fundamental moral direction.
In this one year since becoming President Biden has set forth a foreign policy of weakness and neglect. I list some of these:
First is the failure to reestablish the central factor that had caused the great success of the past 75 years—the movement towards free non-discriminatory trade. Trump, in what can only be described as a fit of insanity, destroyed American trade policy that had led the world to wealth and the reduction of poverty and laid the basis for peace. Biden has done nothing to reverse this.
Second is Biden’s mismanagement of Afghanistan. It is not worth the effort to discuss this. Actually the US did an excellent job evacuating more than 100,000 persons over a few days. The difficulty arose from Biden following the foolish, treasonous agreement that Trump negotiated. Biden should have gone his own way on a more careful path. This was a very strong signal that Biden was weak and probably did not understand the problems.
Third, the proper response to the threats against Taiwan was to relocate significantly more military forces to the Taiwan area and to position a few hundred military trainers on Taiwan.
Fourth, the proper response to Putin’s actions over Ukraine would be exactly the same: Station some American troops in Ukraine and accelerate arms delivery.
Peace and prosperity come from democratic regimes. Autocratic regimes always self-destruct and, in so doing, bring suffering and poverty to their people. The solution to this, for the paramount power, is not to hector the autocrats but to ignore them and concentrate on what can be achieved with a collection of democratic regimes.
Mr Biden wants to attack the autocrats. He should be improving trade conditions among democratic regimes, encouraging interrelations of professionals, promoting immigration among democratic countries, and encouraging the growth of science and technology in those countries that are democratic. The true objective of the US should be to support the emergence of democratic regimes. It is not to rescue poor people from the oppression of their government.
At this point in early 2022, the world is in a fragile condition and the continuing weakness and blundering of the US can only be reversed by a clear, firm position on six critical problems:
- An immediate effort to cause Japan, the EU, Mexico, and NATO members to make a serious effort to improve trading rules approaching free trade among democratic nations, with a sharp discrimination against autocratic states, particularly Russia and China. Every country should be free to establish its own level of human rights, corruption, rule of law etc. But at a certain point there must be a high tariff wall against the products of autocratic systems. In parallel with this should be strict rules about access to the great research universities of the democratic states, discriminatory immigration rules base on the degree of democracy. and finally, the building [most exist already] of professional organizations of the key members of a society [judges, scientists, regulatory experts, managers of data, etc.] but with restricted participation by citizens of autocratic states. The world would soon split into two groups: The democratic, free states and the autocratic states that choose not to establish freedom and protection for citizens. There will be many in between but the true intent will emerge after a few years. Those who join the democratic group will prosper from the wealth, the benefits of competition, and the sharing of knowledge. Those who remain autocratic will cause their people to be poor, and will lose contact with the cutting edge of science and technology. Their leaders will be denied access to the financial systems of the democratic world. Their children will not be part of the democratic world through school or employment.
- The international financial system would be restructured along the same lines. If a nation is within the group of democratic states then the efficient financial system that has been built would be at their disposal. If they are citizens of autocratic states then they must look elsewhere. Citizens of autocratic states would be given a reasonable opportunity to shift their assets into currencies of the autocratic world or have them confiscated. Children from the autocratic world would complete their current school year and then find another school in the autocratic world. Non-citizens of democratic countries would no longer be able to reside and work in democratic countries. At this point the World Bank has a specific purpose; it should lend only to democratic countries. Non-democratic states can cash in their shares and set up their own development bank. The IMF has had no real purpose for decades. Unless it enforces democratic norms as a precondition for lending it should be allowed to vanish.
- At the same time the aggressive bullying by Russia should be confronted with a clear message: If a state is democratic then it will be defended. In particular, immediately, Ukraine falls under the protection of the US. Russia will be at war with the US should they attack Ukraine. All of Putin’s assets abroad should be frozen pending the Russian army standing down. There is no reasonable position to take less than stopping Russian aggression.
- Equally, the US, Japan and South Korea should announce that Taiwan is under their joint military protection. Any military actions against Taiwan would be considered an act of war. The US Congress would certainly back Mr Biden seeking authority to deploy the US military to protect Ukraine and Taiwan. Such approval would send a ringing signal of the reality of power.
- The US would also announce that, although it has withdrawn from Afghanistan, it considers the Taliban rulers enemies of the US and will use political and economic warfare along with covert support for dissident elements against the Taliban government. Stated another way, the war against the Taliban is not over. Autocratic regimes in central Asia should be considered in the same category as Afghanistan. The US and its allies must not allow Russia and China to take control of central Asia.
- The US should increase its radio and TV broadcasts attacking the leaders and governments of autocratic nations for their misdeeds. The US should support opposition political movements in autocratic states. This is a powerful voice and it should be nurtured and made more reliable and more aggressive exposing the crimes of autocratic leaders.
The results of these actions would quickly emerge. The Putin regime would be overthrown and a Russian government would emerge that is willing to live in peace with Europe. Putin and his thugs emergent from the dung of the KGB would enjoy their wealth and die knowing they failed. The Russian people should have a chance to live in freedom without fear. Most nations would over the following decade become freer and more democratic and would eventually act to join the democratic world.
The most important country would be China. China would seek a middle ground that it should not be given. Democracy means the rule of law, an independent judiciary, protection of private property, acknowledgment and protection of human rights, rejection of brutal enforcement organizations that murder and cause people to vanish, and allowing people to freely choose their own leaders. Bit by bit China would change. If it does not then it would weaken economically and soon reverse its ways. The Chinese people are probably the most intelligent, talented people on earth. They understand what is in their best interests and it is not the Communist Party of China.
Of course, the Biden government does not have the courage to lead the advanced economies -- that are largely democratic -- down this path. Instead its weakness and poor governance will lead to a continuation of the path down which Bush, Obama, and Trump led us. An inarticulate, undirected foreign policy that flounders. Words without courage, its main characteristic fear.
We are surely headed for war. We are surely headed for an economic collapse. We are replaying the conditions beginning in 1900 and ending in 1945, a world of death and destruction never seen before. That 45-year period was overcome because the United States was outside Europe and stood for freedom. The British and French governments' weaknesses and fears resulted in these terrible wars.
The powerful United States was guided by two great American leaders: Franklin Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, both determined to allow the human spirit to emerge from repression. These men ended the scourge of Japanese imperialism, Nazi insanity, destroyed the empires of Austro-Hungary, the Tsar’s Russian Empire, the German Empire, the Ottoman Empire and the European colonial empires, and so opened the door to the remarkable world that has been built since 1945. Not perfect but far, far better than anything that had come before.
Unfortunately, the US has fallen from grace and can no longer play the role of stabilizer and leader of democratic nations, proponent of peace, enemy of autocracy. The result is before our eyes: War, economic turmoil, first with inflation and then the collapse of trade with prolonged indefinite decline into poverty. As we watch the US resign from its leadership as the leading democratic country, while the world turns more and more towards autocracy.
I am an old man, my adult life was lived during this period of humanity’s greatest accomplishments. I cry when I contemplate the future facing my grandchildren. But the light of the Enlightenment is going out and we head for a very dark tunnel.
Forrest Cookson is an economist.