The distance from Bangladesh to Ukraine is about 6,000km. But still, who won and who lost in this war? What was the outcome of the war?
There is no link between our good and bad deeds. But the reality is that, in the age of globalization, if instability starts at one end of the earth, its waves will come and crash at the other end. While the bombings by Russian forces in Kyiv did not have a side effect in this third-world country, it is clear that day-to-day effects, ranging from falling stock prices to inflation or rising commodity prices, will affect people’s lives in this country.
In this age of globalization and dependency, most third-world countries are dependent on all parties. In the case of Bangladesh, our biggest export market is Europe-America. Also Bangladesh requires cooperation from Russia in the construction of our nuclear power plants.
For such countries, one-sidedness is not at all easy, and there is no such opportunity to begin with. And we see another reflection of this in the vote of the UN General Assembly. A total of 35 countries, including Bangladesh and India, abstained to input their votes.
Readers should note that India, a close ally of the US in South Asia, also abstained from voting. Participating in this UN vote meant choosing the side of one country, so from a diplomatic point of view, we are not with it, we are not even close to it; all these countries want to abstain from voting.
From the point of view of international relations, the decision of 35 countries, including Bangladesh, can be called a far-sighted one.
The biggest loss for Bangladesh in this war between Russia and Ukraine is a financial one. Bangladesh imports various products, including wheat, from Russia. Out of the total demand of 7 million tons of wheat in our country, 35 million tons come in from Russia.
In the 2020 fiscal year, Russia imported goods worth $66.53 million from Bangladesh. Most of these exports are readymade garments. About Tk4,000cr worth of goods had been imported during this period, most of which were food products. Moreover, Russia is being considered as a new market for the export of readymade garments.
But with the expulsion of Russian banks from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications), financial transactions are now at risk. Garment traders in our country are suffering from uncertainty over billions of dollars worth of orders.
However, Russian banks are still considering payment and export arrangements through SWIFT and through China as a third country. In a word, because of the war, trade worth $1.8bn with Ukraine and Russia has put Bangladesh at risk.
The war is a big reason for the skyrocketing fuel prices. The cost of transporting goods may increase further in the coming days. As a result, prices of all products, including industrial raw materials, will rise, with Russia accounting for 10% of the world's energy exports.
If oil imports from Russia are hampered by economic sanctions, Europe will have to buy from alternative sources at higher prices. Russia supplies about 40% of Europe's fuel oil. If Putin cuts off energy supplies to Europe, it will turn to the Middle East for alternative energy. And since Bangladesh imports energy from the Middle East, there will be a crisis and Bangladesh will have to buy fuel at a higher cost.
The price of fuel oil in the world market has exceeded $110 per barrel; if the price does not come down, then it will be increased further in Bangladesh. Its aftermath can be seen in the fact that bus fares have increased with the price of every commodity.
Naturally, a large number of people will cut other expenses to meet the rising prices of oil and food, which could have a negative impact on Bangladesh's exports. This can reduce the standard of living of the people of Bangladesh for the short or long term.
Another concern for Bangladesh is the Ruppur nuclear power plant. For this project, Bangladesh used to take money from Russia in US dollars. Now, due to sanctions, diplomats of the two countries will have to re-decide on the currency and how it will be given if Russia cannot provide assistance in dollars.
As a result, if this war -- in the best case scenario -- does not have a major impact on Bangladesh, it can be said that the financing of the project will slow down.
Meanwhile, Russian banks have sent notices to our banks via email. For several days now, currency swaps or commercial money transactions have been under consideration. The two countries’ central banks will settle their respective exporters’ debts in domestic currencies, and adjust them every three months.
But the question is: How much trade can be done by swapping currencies, bypassing the Western sanctions now imposed on Russia’s central bank?
And the last aspect that is a matter of concern for Bangladesh is the new refugee problem in Europe. We have seen in the last few years that the solution to this problem has been very slow. This new crisis could erode the international community’s attention away from the Rohingya issue. Funding for the Rohingya has been declining for the past year as well.
As a long time has passed, about 1.2 million Rohingya are in extreme danger in Bangladesh. Now, if the world becomes preoccupied with the new refugee problem, it could have a detrimental effect on money and repatriation plans for the Rohingya.
In my opinion, third-world nations have always fought for peace, but war and conflict are never in their national interest. The war effect in Europe is not profitable for our country. So, the sooner this war ends, the better it will be for human civilization and for Bangladesh.
Md Toslim Bhuiyan Prantik is a student, Department of Law, North South University.